Ijaz Hossain Chemical Engineering Department BUET Presented at

Ijaz Hossain Chemical Engineering Department, BUET Presented at: Roundtable on Energy – Future of Bangladesh-Korea Cooperation in Energy and Power Westin Hotel, Gulshan 3 rd December 2009 Present and Future of the Bangladesh Energy Policy and Possible Areas of Cooperation between Korea and Bangladesh

Primary Energy Consumption in Bangladesh in 2007 -08 Physical Units Energy Units (%) % of Fossil Natural Gas 601 BCF 595 million GJ 39. 0 70. 8 Oil 3. 8 million Tons 162 million GJ 10. 6 19. 3 Coal 3 million Tons 83 million GJ 5. 4 9. 9 Hydro 1. 0 TWh -- -- Biomass 51 million Tons 688 million GJ Solar PV (w-p) 30 MW (44 GWh) -- Wind 1 MW (2 GWh) -- 45. 0 --

Energy Infrastructures and Resources of Bangladesh Total Generation 5500 MW Captive 1200 MW Refineries 1 Gas Fields Operational 4000 MW 1200 MW 1 Remarks 90% gas based 98% gas based 1. 5 million Tons/year 23 17 Reserves – 20. 6 TCF (8. 5 consumed) Not Prod. – 4 Suspend – 2 Resources – 28 TCF (mean) Coal Fields 5 1 Undevel. – 4 Trans (Gas) 1856 km Reserves – 204 -764 million Tons Resources – 2715 million Tons 90% in the eastern region Severe limitation in most areas Trans (Elec) Concentrated in eastern region Severe bottleneck in most areas 7044 km

Electricity Generation in Bangladesh in the year 2008 -09 Item Mk. Wh (%) BPDB Gross Generation (Mk. Wh) 16431 Station’s Own Use (Mk. Wh) 982 6. 0 of GROSS Gen. BPDB Net Generation (Mk. Wh) 15449 60. 6 of NET Gen. IPP Net Generation (Mk. Wh) 8832 34. 6 of NET Gen. RPP Net Generation (Mk. Wh) 1224 4. 8 Total Net Generation (Mk. Wh) 25510 of NET Gen.

Public vs. Private Generation POWER PLANTS ELECTRICITY GENERATED IPPs have nearly 800 MW of CCGTs IPPs mainly supply baseload power

Fuel Mix for Power Generation

Type of Power Plant (MW)

45 Gas Turbines Shahjibazar I [57] 40 Baseload/Peaking 35 30 Ashuganj GT-1 [56] 25 Age in Years Chittagong [28] Shylet [20] Haripur [99] 20 Baghabari (I) [110] 15 Shahjibazar (II) [70] 10 Baghabari (II) [110] Tongi [109] 5 0 Chittagong [28] Ashuganj GT-1 [56] Haripur [99] Tongi [109] Shahjibazar I [57] Shahjibazar (II) [70] Shylet [20] Baghabari (I) [110] Baghabari (II) [110]

Captive Power Generation • Because of electricity shortage and unreliable power supply, gas utility started allowing captive power generation about 10 years back • 1200+ MW is now in Captive Generation • 25% of the gas for power is consumed by this sub-sector • Plant efficiencies are typically around 30 -32% • Waste heat is not utilized • Ideal opportunity for cogeneration

Power System Master Plan 2006

Power Sector Plan up to 2020

Planned Growth of Power Generation 18000 16643 16000 14000 12000 MW 9449 10000 8000 6000 5269 6000 4000 2000 0 FY 2007 FY 2009 FY 2012 FY 2020

Planned Growth of Distribution Lines 600000 477558 500000 400000 314000 Km 300000 345530 271142 200000 100000 0 FY 2007 FY 2009 FY 2012 FY 2020

Planned Growth of Transmission Lines 14000 12000 10000 8000 Km 9077 9653 7044 6000 4000 2000 0 FY 2007 FY 2009 FY 2012 FY 2020

NATURAL GAS: Demand: 2250 MMcfd Production: 1950 MMcfd IOCs: 950 MMcfd Shortfall: 300 MMcfd FY 2009: 650 Bcf R/P Ratio = 18. 5 years Resources: 28 – 42 Tcf

Short-Term Gas Projection (Bcf)

Coal: Estimated, Proven and Recoverable Reserves COAL FIELD (year of discovery) Estimated reserve (million Tons) Jamalganj, Joypurhut (1962) 1470 Proven Recoverable reserve (million Tons) 1050 Barapukuria, Parbatipur, Dinajpur (1985) Khalashpir, Pirgoanj, Rangpur (1995) 390 Dighipara, Nababganj, Dinajpur (1995) 200 140 Fulbari, Dinajpur (1997) Total coal 450 3195 450 1340 685 270 480

Opportunities in Electricity Sector Sub-sector Generation Rehabilitation New CCGT baseload New Steam Thermal New Peaking Transmission Rehabilitation New Lines expansion Distribution Rehabilitation New Lines expansion Potential Remarks > 2000 MW > 1000 MW Steam baseload and gas turbines as PPP Old plants shut down or NEW GAS Coal based: imported or domestic Replacement of old or new plants > 20% > 2000 km Lines that have exceeded service life Present need and new power plants > 30% > 40, 000 km Rehabilitate overloaded feeders Govt. expansion plan (e. g. , Purbachal)

Private Participation of the Power Sector Policy Guideline, 2008 Set up Commercial Power Plants (i) to supply electricity to Large Consumers on mutually negotiated tariffs; and (ii) to supply electricity to the Distribution Licensees at tariffs determined by the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC); Use transmission and distribution lines of Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) and Distribution Licensees on a non-discriminatory basis for wheeling of power produced in their existing as well as new Commercial Power Plants; Rehabilitate Old and Inefficient Power Plants owned by the Public Sector Power Utilities on Rehabilitate, Own and Operate (ROO) or Rehabilitate, Operate and Transfer (ROT) model ; and Develop Joint Venture Power Plants in partnership with Public Sector Power Utilities.

Opportunities in Gas Sector Sub-sector Exploration Potential Offshore Onshore > 10 Blocks Few blocks disputed (Myanmar/India) > 5 Blocks Joint venture with BAPEX is easiest Development Titas, Habiganj Transmission Subsea Pipeline > 2 -3 TCF Remarks 28 TCF of resource potential exists: 3 -D seismic and good reservoir management If offshore discoveries are made

Recommendations – I Bangladesh builds most new power plants through competitive bidding (through tenders) Negotiated or Feed-in tariffs system not used For bilateral Government-to-Government projects, an exception may be made The easiest way for a bilateral organization to get involved at the present time in power generation is through joint ventures especially for power plant rehabilitation

Recommendations – II Merchant power plants can be built and electricity wheeled using the OPEN ACCESS policy Large customers or export processing/industrial zones can be supplied Government will not provide primary energy No restriction on tariff Coal from either India or Indonesia/Australia can be considered as fuel

Recommendations – III For natural gas exploration: Completive bidding for blocks is the preferred option If Korean companies are willing to accept a NO-EXPORT clause, then blocks can be awarded quite easily to them Joint ventures with BAPEX: Since BAPEX does not have offshore capabilities, a suitable partner may be able to utilize the joint venture option to bypass the bidding for blocks Financial and technical assistance to implement Good Reservoir Management Practices especially for the large TITAS and HABIGANJ gas fields can be explored

Recommendations – IV Coal Development: New underground mining Coal-bed methane extraction Infrastructure for using imported coal Deep sea port to handle coal import Inland transport (railway network expansion) Storage facilities

Thank You hossain. ijaz@gmail. com ijaz@buet. ac. bd