ICAO Strategic Objective Economic Development of Air Transport

ICAO Strategic Objective: Economic Development of Air Transport State of the Air Transport in 2013 ICAO Aviation Data Analyses Seminar Middle East (MID) Regional Office 27 -29 October Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) Section Air Transport Bureau (ATB)

The air transport industry is not only • a vital engine of global socio-economic growth • but is also of vital importance as a catalyst for economic development, – creating direct and indirect employment, – supporting tourism and local businesses, and – stimulating foreign investment and international trade. 2

Economic benefits of aviation 58. 1 $2. 4 million Jobs supported by aviation worldwide trillion Global economic impact* *including direct, induced and tourism catalytic Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014 3

World international cargo shipment Volume of world international cargo shipment Value of world international cargo shipment Aviation Surface modes Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014 4 Aviation

Economic development in 2013 GDP growth rate 3. 5% Real GDP Quarter-on-Quarter growth (2013 vs. 2012) 3. 0% 2. 5% 2. 0% 3. 0% 2. 7% 2. 4% +2. 5% = 2013 vs. 2012 Real GDP annual growth 1. 9% 1. 5% 1. 0% 0. 5% 0. 0% Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 2013 Source: IHS Global Insight 5 Economic growth recorded an increasing trend over the successive quarterly growth rates of 2013

Commercial air transport fleet in 2013 Turbojets: 30, 000 Turbojet - 88% of world fleet in 2013 - this share increased every year since 2004 Turboprop Number of aircraft* 25, 000 20, 000 15, 000 10, 000 2013: 88% 85% - 1 500 aircraft deliveries - More than 3000 aircraft net orders for the world’s major aircraft manufacturer 5, 000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 *Active and parked aircraft are included; aircraft having a maximum take-off mass of less than 9 000 kg (20 000 lbs) are not included Source: Reed Business Information (RBI), aircraft manufacturer websites 6

Air carrier financial results in 2013 4. 0% US dollars (billion) 1, 000 800 600 3. 0% 2. 6% 706 687 3. 5% 717 692 2. 5% 2. 0% 1. 5% 400 1. 0% 200 0. 5% 0 Operating results (% of Revenues) 3. 5% Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013 Airline operating results in 2013: 3. 5% of operating revenues +0. 9 p. p. * vs. 2012 Operating Revenues 0. 0% 2012 Airline operating revenues in 2013: 717 billion USD +1. 7% vs. 2012 Operating Expenses 2013 Operating result 7 *percentage points

Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council 8 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 5. 8 2003 2001 1999 Gulf crisis World recession SARS 9/11 terrorist attack Asian crisis 5, 000 1997 1, 000 1995 1993 1991 Iran-Iraq war 4, 000 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 2, 000 Oil crisis 3, 000 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 1963 1961 1959 1957 1955 1953 1951 1949 6, 000 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 +5. 5% 40 growth rate vs. 2012 trillion RPK Freight Tonne-Kilometres 1947 7, 000 (billion) 1945 (billion) Revenue Passenger-Kilometres Air Transport Development 200 20 -

2013 - State of Air Transport Annual analysis on a world and regional level • 63 pages of comprehensive analysis and key figures of air transport For each ICAO Statistical Region: • Passenger and cargo traffic for 2011, 2012 and 2013 • Top 15 States, airlines and airports in 2013 • Evolution of LCC market penetration in the last 10 years 9

World Air Transport in 2013 3. 1 32 +4. 5% vs. 2012 billion million 186 +5. 5% vs. 2012 trillion +0. 4% vs. 2012 billion Freight Tonne-Kilometres Revenue Passenger-Kilometres 10 Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013 vs. 2012 Commercial flights performed Passengers carried 5. 8 +1. 2% 10 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

ICAO Statistical Regions 11

World Air Transport in 2013 by Region Passengers carried (million) Aircraft departures (million) 3. 1 Europe Africa Middle East 0. 9 -0. 4% 1. 1 +4. 9% Asia and Pacific North America 32 7. 9 -0. 4% +4. 5% 73 +3. 5% Middle East 161 +7. 8% Africa vs. 2012 8. 6 +6. 3% billion 11. 0 -1. 3% Asia and Pacific North America Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) 5. 8 Africa Middle East North America +8. 0% 815 +0. 9% 186 +5. 5% 1, 556 +4. 6% Europe vs. 2012 Africa trillion 1, 785 1, 505 Middle East Asia and Pacific +7. 7% North America +2. 0% +0. 4% -0. 1% 41. 5 3. 1 +4. 0% 22. 6 +12. 0% vs. 2012 74. 0 billion 39. 1 -4. 9% +0. 2% Latin America and Caribbean 5. 3 +2. 7% Freight Tonne-Kilometres Latin America and Caribbean Passenger-Kilometres 303 +6. 7% Revenue 12 Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013 1, 008 million Freight Tonne-Kilometres (billion) 134 +4. 4% 500 +11. 2% Asia and Pacific vs. 2012 Latin America and Caribbean 230 Commercial flights performed +5. 7% Latin America and Caribbean 2. 6 +0. 4% Passengers carried Europe 817 +3. 1% +1. 2% Europe 12 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Passenger traffic: Worldwide distribution (1/2) traffic share in terms of RPK 35% Asia/ Pacific 30% Europe 25% North America 20% Analysis Since 2010: Asia/Pacific ranks 1 st Since 2012: Europe ranks 2 nd 15% Middle East 10% Latin America/ Caribbean 5% Africa 0% 2007 2008 Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council 2009 2010 2011 2012 13 Middle East has gained market share every year 2013 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Passenger traffic: Worldwide distribution (2/2) Distribution in Revenue Passenger-Kilometres 2007 Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 2% Middle East 4% 2013 1 st: North America 2 nd: Asia/Pacific 3 rd: Europe Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 5% 2% Middle East 9% 6% North America 32% Europe 27% Asia/ Pacific 31% North America 26% Europe 27% Asia/ Pacific 29% Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council 1 st: Asia/Pacific 2 nd: Europe 3 rd: North America 14 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Freight traffic: Worldwide distribution (1/2) 45% Asia/ Pacific traffic share in terms of FTK 40% 35% 30% 25% Europe 20% North America 15% Middle East 10% Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 5% 0% 2007 2008 2009 Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council 2010 2011 2012 15 2013 Analysis in 2013: Asia/Pacific’s FTK share is 40% Europe ranks clearly 2 nd North America declined Asia/Pacific declined in 2011 and 2012 Middle East has gained market share every year Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Freight traffic: Worldwide distribution (2/2) Distribution in Freight Tonne-Kilometres 2007 Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 3% 1% Middle East 6% 2013 1 st: Asia/Pacific 2 nd: North America 3 rd: Europe Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 2% 3% Middle East 12% Asia/ Pacific 42% Europe 23% 1 st: Asia/Pacific 2 nd: Europe 3 rd: North America Asia/ Pacific 40% North America 21% Europe 22% North America 25% Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council 16 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

World Top 15 Airlines in 2013 - United Delta Emirates American Southwest Lufthansa Air France British Airways China Southern US Airways Air China Ryanair China Eastern Singapore Airlines Cathay Pacific Note: scheduled services 50 RPK (billion) 100 150 200 - 5 carriers from North America 250 300 - 0. 5% + 2. 0% + 15. 8% + 1. 6% +5. 4% - 5 carriers from Asia/Pacific - 4 carriers from Europe + 1. 3% + 0. 5% + 4. 7% + 8. 6% + 6. 0% + 8. 7% + 6. 7% + 10. 9% + 2. 6% - 1 carrier from Middle East - 2 low-cost carriers: Southwest and Ryanair - Highest growth Emirates with +15. 8 % RPK growth in 2013 vs 2012 - 0. 5% Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates Total (international and domestic) services

World Top 15 Airports in 2013 0 Departures (thousand) 100 Atlanta (ATL) Chicago (ORD) Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) Los Angeles (LAX) Denver (DEN) Beijing (PEK) Charlotte (CLT) Las Vegas (LAS) Houston (IAH) Paris (CDG) Frankfurt (FRA) London (LHR) Amsterdam (AMS) Phoenix (PHX) Philadelphia (PHL) Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services 200 300 400 - 2. 1% + 0. 6% + 4. 3% - 10 airports in North America (including the Top 5) + 1. 6% - 4. 9% + 1. 1% - 4 airports in Europe (3 of them recorded negative growth) - 1. 3% - 0. 8% - 3. 9% - 1 airport in Asia/Pacific: - 2. 0% Beijing (PEK) - 0. 7% + 0. 6% - 3. 2% - 2. 0% Source: ACI Total (international and domestic) services

Inter-region capacity offered from Europe to the World Share of seats offered (%) to North America 10% 30% 27% 2013 2004 33% 40% 50% 21% 17% to Africa to Middle East 13% to Asia/Pacific 170 -6. 6 pts to Africa 160 +3. 8 pts 20% +6. 9 pts 10% -2. 7 pts 13% to Middle East 150 to Latin America/ Caribbean 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 2013 2004 - to North America 60% 23% -1. 5 pts 24% to Asia/Pacific to Latin America/ Caribbean 20% seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FROM EUROPE: 1 st destination : to North America (-6. 6 pts) Fastest growth destinations during 2004 -2013: to Middle East and to Africa 41% share in seats in 2013 Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively balanced Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 19 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Inter-region capacity offered from Africa to the World Share of seats offered (%) to Europe 20% 62% 2013 2004 69% 29% to Middle East to Asia/Pacific 40% 21% 80% -7. 1 pts +8 pts 5% -0. 4 pts 6% to North America 3% 3% -0. 4 pts to Latin America/ Caribbean 1% -0. 1 pts 1% to Middle East 200 to Asia/Pacific 180 to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 160 140 120 100 80 2013 2004 - to Europe 220 seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FROM AFRICA: 1 st destination : to Europe (-7. 1 pts) more than 60% of seats offered Fastest growth destination during 2004 -2013: to Middle East 29% share in seats in 2013 (+8 pts) Distribution of seats offered among regions is very unbalanced Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 20 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Inter-region capacity offered from Middle East to the World Share of seats offered (%) 0% 20% 40% 50% 60% to Africa 17% +2. 2 pts 14% to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 1% +0. 6 pts 0% to Europe 680 33% -2. 2 pts 35% 4% +1. 2 pts 3% 580 to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 480 380 280 180 2013 2004 - to Asia/Pacific 45% -1. 7 pts 47% 2013 2004 to Europe to Africa 30% seats offered (index 100 in 2004) to Asia/Pacific 10% 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FROM MIDDLE EAST: 1 st destination : to Asia/Pacific (-1. 7 pts) Fastest growth destination: to Latin America/Caribbean (UAE/Qatar to Brazil/Argentina) few seats Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 21 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Inter-region capacity offered from Asia/Pacific to the World Share of seats offered (%) to Middle East 10% 2013 2004 20% 26% 50% 60% 24% 33% +13 pts to Europe 170 -9. 6 pts 3% +0. 4 pts 2% 0% -0. 1 pts 1% to North America 160 to Africa 150 to Latin America/ Caribbean 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 2013 2004 - to Middle East 180 34% -3. 8 pts 38% to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 40% 39% to Europe to Africa 30% seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FROM ASIA/PACIFIC: 1 st destination in 2013 : to Middle East (+13 pts) to Middle East was 3 rd in 2004 Fastest growth destination: to Middle East and to Africa few seats to Africa Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 22 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Inter-region capacity offered from North America to the World Share of seats offered (%) to Latin America/ Caribbean 10% 20% 30% 43% 45% 2013 2004 33% to Europe 20% 21% to Asia/Pacific to Middle East to Africa 40% 50% 60% -1. 6 pts to Europe to Asia/Pacific -0. 1 pts -0. 8 pts 3% +2. 1 pts 1% 1% +0. 4 pts 1% 230 to Middle East to Africa 180 130 80 2013 2004 - to Latin America/ Caribbean 280 seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FROM NORTH AMERICA: 1 st destination: to Latin America/Caribbean (-1. 6 pts) Fastest growth destination: to Middle East and to Africa few seats offered Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 23 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Inter-region capacity offered from Latin America/Caribbean to the World Share of seats offered (%) to North America 40% 60% 2013 2004 to Europe to Middle East 1% +0. 8 pts 0% to Asia/Pacific 1% 1% +0 pts to North America 80% 75% 77% 23% 22% to Africa - 20% to Europe 680 -1. 7 pts to Middle East seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 0% +0. 8 pts 580 to Asia/Pacific to Africa 480 380 280 0% +0. 1 pts 0% 180 2013 2004 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FROM LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN: 1 st destination: to North America (-1. 7 pts) 75% of seats offered Fastest growth destination: to Middle East few seats offered Distribution of seats offered among regions is very unbalanced Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 24 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Europe Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports Top 5 airlines - Billions 50 Top 5 airports 100 Lufthansa + 0. 5% British Airways Turkish Airlines *2013 vs. 2012 - - 200 + 1. 3%* Air France Ryanair 150 + 4. 7% + 6. 7% Departures (thousand) 50 100 250 - 3. 9% Frankfurt (FRA) - 2. 0% London (LHR) - 0. 7% 300 + 0. 5% Istanbul (IST) Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates 200 Paris (CDG) Amsterdam (AMS) + 23. 6% 150 + 11. 5% Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI Each airline of the Top 5 recorded an increase Turkish Airlines: - +20% growth : Network expansion in 2013: +9 new States served, +26 cities served - 5 th largest airline in Europe in 2013 Top 3 airports recorded each a decrease 25 Total (international and domestic) services

Africa Top 5 airlines - Top 5 airports Billions Top 5 airlines - Top 5 airports 10 20 South African Airways Kenya Airways *2013 vs. 2012 20 40 60 80 Johannesburg (JNB) Lagos (LOS) + 2. 3% - 2. 8% - 10. 4% - 2. 6% Cape Town (CPT) - 4. 5% Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates 120 - 0. 3% Nairobi (NBO) + 2. 9% 100 - 0. 5% Cairo (CAI) + 20. 0% Egypt Air Royal Air Maroc - 30 - 0. 5%* Ethiopian Airlines Departures (thousand) Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI - 1 st airline and 1 st airport are South African - Ethiopian Airlines: +20% RPK growth 2 nd largest airline in 2013 - Each airport of the Top 5 recorded a decrease in 2013 - Africa: +4. 4% RPK growth in 2013 26 Total (international and domestic) services

Middle East Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports Top 5 airlines Billions - 50 100 Emirates *2013 vs. 2012 Top 5 airports 250 50 100 150 + 7. 4% + 7. 7% Jeddah (JED) - 2. 3% Riyadh (RUH) + 5. 1% Abu Dhabi (AUH) 200 + 7. 5% Doha (DOH) + 19. 0% + 3. 5% - Departures (thousand) Dubai (DXB) + 11. 0% Etihad Airways El Al 200 + 15. 8%* Qatar Airways Saudi Arabian Airlines 150 + 11. 2% Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates - All airlines and airports of the Top 5 recorded positive growth rates (except Jeddah airport) - Double digit growth for the Top 3 airlines: Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways - The Top 5 airlines represents more than 80% of the RPK in Middle East 27 Total (international and domestic) services

Asia/Pacific Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports Top 5 airlines Billions - 25 50 75 100 China Southern Air China Eastern Singapore Airlines Cathay Pacific *2013 vs. 2012 125 150 Top 5 airports - Departures (thousand) 50 100 150 200 Beijing (PEK) + 8. 6%* Tokyo (HND) + 3. 1% + 11. 3% Jakarta (CGK) + 4. 7% - 0. 5% Guangzhou (CAN) + 5. 7% Hong Kong (HKG) + 5. 7% Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates 300 + 1. 9% + 8. 6% + 2. 6% 250 Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI - Top 3 airlines: Only Chinese carriers Each airport of the Top 5 recorded an increase Beijing (PEK) Largest airport in Asia/Pacific : 40% more departures than the 2 nd - Asia/Pacific : +7. 7% RPK growth in 2013 2 nd largest airport in the world 28 Total (international and domestic) services

North America Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports Top 5 airlines - Billions 50 100 150 200 United Top 5 airports + 4. 9% 100 200 300 400 500 Atlanta (ATL) - 2. 1% Chicago (ORD) + 0. 6% Los Angeles (LAX) - 0. 3% Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) + 4. 3% + 1. 6% Southwest Departures (thousand) - + 2. 0% American *2013 vs. 2012 300 - 0. 5% Delta US Airways 250 Denver (DEN) + 6. 0% Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates - 4. 9% Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI - Atlanta airport: 1 st airport in the world (departures and passengers) // -2. 1% departures growth - United airlines: 1 st airline in the world (RPK) // -0. 5% RPK growth - US Airways and American Airlines merged in December 2013 29 Total (international and domestic) services

Latin America and Caribbean Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports Top 5 airlines - Billions 20 40 TAM Airlines 60 80 Top 5 airports - 50 100 + 7. 6% Bogota (BOG) + 1. 0% + 16. 3% São Paulo (GRU) Aeromexico + 10. 9% São Paulo (CGH) - 1. 8% Brasilia (BSB) - 7. 8% *2013 vs. 2012 - 9. 0% Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates 200 + 5. 0% Copa LAN Chile 150 Mexico City (MEX) + 0. 9%* GOL Departures (thousand) + 3. 8% Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI - LAN Chile: -9% RPK growth 5 th in 2013, 3 rd in 2012 - Copa: +16. 3% RPK growth received seven B 737, network expansion (added frequencies and new destinations) - Largest airport and strongest growth in the Top 5 airports: Mexico City (+5. 0%) 30 Total (international and domestic) services

Low Cost Carriers in 2013 LCC Traffic Share by number of Seats 45% LCC Traffic Share by Region (intra-regional traffic) Percentage of States served by LCC - 2004 vs 2013 Europe 40% 30% +16 States 100% 35% Latin America/ Caribbean 25% 80% North America 60% Asia/ Pacific 20% 40% 15% Middle East 10% 5% 20% Africa 0% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 84% +8 States +7 States 94% +5 States +3 States 79% 100%100% 78% 69% 62% 47% 37% 22% Africa 2004 Asia/Pacific Europe 2013 Latin Middle East North America/ America Caribbean - Largest LCC presence: Europe (37%) and Latin America/Caribbean (31%) - All States in Middle East have LCC presence in 2013 - Strongest growth: Asia/Pacific and Middle East (+17 pts in 10 years) - 94% of States have LCC traffic in Europe in 2013 - Smallest LCC presence: Africa - Asia/Pacific : +16 new States served by LCCs 31 Source: ICAO, OAG 31 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Low Cost Carriers in 2013 LCCs in 2004 20% LCCs in 2004 24% Legacy carriers 69% LCCs 31% 2013 LCCs 40% LCCs in 2004 LCCs 1% 18% LCCs in 2004 26% Legacy carriers 63% Legacy carriers 60% LCCs 37% LCCs in 2004 3% Legacy carriers 93% Legacy carriers 82% LCCs in 2004 4% LCCs 21% Legacy carriers 79% Note: distribution in terms of number of seats intra-region Source: ICAO, OAG 32 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services

Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO” Scheduled passenger traffic Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO 33

Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO” Scheduled freight traffic Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO 34

The Monthly Monitor • Published every month on ICAO website: http: //www. icao. int/sust ainability/Pages/ATMonthly. Monitor. aspx • Outlook and analysis of passenger and freight traffic • Top 15 airports and airlines • Evolution of the capacity by region 35

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