ICAO Strategic Objective Economic Development of Air Transport
ICAO Strategic Objective: Economic Development of Air Transport Aviation Data and Indicators Narjess Abdennebi Chief, Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) Section AIR TRANSPORT BUREAU 28 November 2020 Page 1
The ICAO Statistics Programme 28 November 2020 Page 2
Statistics for monitoring air transport development: analyses , policies and forecasts Environment POLICIES MARKET ANALYSES Safety Economic Air Transport Development STATISTICS FORECASTING Security ICAO : an independent and reliable source of information on civil aviation matters 28 November 2020 Page 3
Mandate for the ICAO Statistics Programme Chicago Convention (Art. 54, 55, and 67) “Each contracting State undertakes that its international airlines shall, in accordance with requirements laid down by the Council, file with the Council traffic reports, cost statistics and financial statements showing among other things all receipts and the sources thereof. ” 28 November 2020 Page 4
ICAO Statistics Programme foundations Assembly Resolutions (A 37 -20, App. B): Ø Whereas the development of ICAO’s validation and storage Integrated Statistical Database provides Contracting States and other users with an efficient online system for the retrieval of statistical data; Ø Requests the Council, calling on national experts in the relevant disciplines as required, to examine on a regular basis the statistical data collected by ICAO and etc… Council Air Transport Committee Statistics Division 28 November 2020 Assembly Statistics Panel Page 5
Sources of data For each State: Air carrier Traffic – Forms A, A-S, B and C Fleet and personnel – Form D Finance – Form E-F Fuel consumption – Form M Different data sources for different purposes Each has different coverage, level of detail, limitations on use, and produced on their own cycle 28 November 2020 ANSP Traffic – Form L Finance – Form K State All forms + Airport Traffic – Forms I and I-S Finance – Form J Civil aircraft registered – Form H Aviation personnel – Form N Page 6
Statistics collection and dissemination collection, verification States Forms submission EAP validation (ISDB database) clarification, correction, reminders 28 November 2020 Analysis, modelled missing data, … States ICAODATA+ External stakeholders Page 7
STA/10 outcomes 23 -27 Nov 2009: Tenth Session of the Statistics Division (STA/10) • Recommended amendments in the current Air Transport Reporting Forms: – – Partial removal of the OFOD publication restrictions Adoption of a statistical classification Posting of a list of worldwide LCCs Need to nominate DGCA´s focal points for statistics, etc. . • Recommended new data collections and processes implementation – To implement a form on aviation personnel licenses and training – To introduce a new collection process on fuel consumption by commercial air carriers – Etc… • New edition of the Manual on the ICAO Statistics Programme (Doc 9060) 28 November 2020 Page 8
ICAO Air Transport Reporting Forms COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS • A Commercial air carrier traffic by carrier • A-S Total traffic of all commercial air carriers of a State • B On-Flight Origin and Destination • C Traffic by Flight Stage • D Fleet and Personnel • EF Financial Data î M: New Form on fuel consumption by commercial air carriers AIRPORTS • • • I I-S J Airport traffic by airport Total traffic of all the airports in the territory of a State Financial data AIR NAVIGATION SERVICES PROVIDERS • • K L STATES • H î N: Financial data Traffic Number of aircraft in the register New Form on aviation personnel licenses and training 28 November 2020 Page 9
STAP/15 – Montréal, April 2014 New challenges: • Enhancement of the ICAO Statistics Programme’s Forms in collaboration with International Organizations in order to harmonize as much as possible the Forms sent to ICAO Member States in a view of rationalization of the requests sent by ICAO and other International Organizations. • Creation of a sub-working group for the development of a set of harmonized forecasts 28 November 2020 Page 10
The world of air transport in 2012 28 November 2020 Page 11
The world of air transport in 2012 Key figures 3. 0 +4. 7% vs 2011 billion Passengers carried 5. 4 vs 2011 million Aircraft departures +4. 9% vs 2011 trillion Revenue Passenger-Km 28 November 2020 31 +0. 7% 182 -1. 1% vs 2011 billion Freight Tonne-Km Page 12
The world of air transport in 2012 Regional distribution 3. 0 - Europe 200 400 +4. 7% +4. 1% 799 Africa million 800 1, 000 600 Yo. Y 145 Asia/ Pacific 922 North America 810 +10. 8% Yo. Y +1. 1% Passengers carried 213 +8. 6% Latin America/ Caribbean +6. 8% Yo. Y 5. 4 Africa Middle East 1, 467 Yo. Y +13. 7% Yo. Y Asia/ Pacific 1, 633 North America 1, 453 +4. 9% billion 1, 000 million Yo. Y Asia/ Pacific 7, 892 North America +5. 3% Yo. Y 11, 141 Aircraft 2, 517 departures Latin America/ Caribbean Yo. Y trillion Africa +8. 6% Yo. Y +6. 4% +1. 3% Yo. Y 182 - Europe +3. 9% Revenue Passenger-Km 28 November 2020 2, 000 vs 2011 Revenue 281 Passenger-Km Latin America/ Caribbean Yo. Y 1, 056 +6. 2% -1. 4% Yo. Y Aircraft departures 126 +4. 2% 443 vs 2011 Yo. Y Passengers carried Europe Yo. Y +4. 0% Yo. Y - -2. 2% 879+0. 6% Middle East billion +0. 7% 5, 000 7, 693 Africa Yo. Y Middle East 31 Europe vs 2011 67 +4. 5% - thousand 10, 000 15, 000 Yo. Y 50 41 -1. 1% billion 100 vs 2011 -2. 7% Yo. Y 3 +12. 1% Yo. Y Middle East 20 Asia/ Pacific 72 billion North America 41 -1. 4% +13. 0% Yo. Y Freight 5 Tonne-Km Latin America/ Caribbean -4. 0% Yo. Y +1. 4% Yo. Y Freight Tonne-Km Page 13 Yo. Y
The world of air transport in 2012 Domestic vs. international passenger Load Factor (%) 100 90 80 70 60 +1. 2 pts +0. 0 pts vs. 2011 78 79 international domestic 50 40 30 20 10 - domestic 61% internationa l 39% Passengers carried 28 November 2020 domestic 38% internationa l 62% Revenue Passenger-Km Page 14
Dissemination of aviation data 28 November 2020 Page 15
ICAODATA+ Disseminate reliable and independent data stats. icao. int 28 November 2020 Page 16
Analyze the air transport market: ICAODATA+: analysis tools 28 November 2020 Page 17
2 Gulf crisis Oil crisis 3 Iran-Iraq war 4 Asian crisis World recession 5 9/11 terrorist attack SARS ICAO website: aviation history (trillions) Revenue Passenger-Kilometres* Analyze the air transport market ICAO website: aviation history 1 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 *: World scheduled services 28 November 2020 Page 18
Analyze the air transport market ICAO website: facts & figures Key figures 28 November 2020 Analysis Page 19
Analyze the air transport market: The monthly monitor 28 November 2020 Page 20
Economic and Air transport indicators à Snapshots and analyses of economic indicators at a State level à Snapshots and analyses of air transport indicators at a State level à Reporting status at the State level à Air transport regulation matters and development 28 November 2020 Page 21
E-learning courses on Statistics and Aviation ü Air Transport Statistics ü Air Transport Economics and Regulation ü Forecasting for Aviation activities 28 November 2020 Page 22
Statistics hands-on training sessions 4 sessions: üNovember 2011 üJune 2012 üSeptember 2012 üNovember 2012 African States LACAC Member States Support to States: ü Practical experience for the completion of statistical forms ü Familiarize participants with the revised ICAO Statistics Programme ü Provide technical assistance in the reporting process 28 November 2020 Page 23
ICORAS • • ICAO CO 2 Reporting and Analysis System ICORAS An Air Transport Bureau project involving two strategic objectives: • D- Economic Development of Air Transport • E- Environmental Protection 28 November 2020 Page 24
Background of ICORAS project Assembly Resolutions of A 37 -19: • Aspirational goal of 2% fuel efficiency gains per year • Report CO 2 emissions from international aviation to United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • Measure progress on annual fuel efficiency • Measure progress toward keeping net CO 2 emissions at same level from 2020 A 37 -20 – Appendix B: • Need for the Organization to collect data from State on annual aviation fuel consumption 28 November 2020 Page 25
ICAO Statistics Programme foundations Assembly Resolutions (A 37 -20, App. B): Ø Whereas the development of ICAO’s validation and storage Integrated Statistical Database provides Contracting States and other users with an efficient online system for the retrieval of statistical data; Ø Requests the Council, calling on national experts in the relevant disciplines as required, to examine on a regular basis the statistical data collected by ICAO and etc… Council Air Transport Committee Statistics Division 28 November 2020 Assembly Statistics Panel Page 26
New Form M: unique source of performed traffic and related fuel consumption data The State letter EC 7/1. 6 -12/69 has been sent in December 2012 to request States’ support in urging their carriers to submit 2010 and 2011 data on Air Transport Reporting Form M 28 November 2020 Page 27
Reporting and Analysis System ICOARS Project clarification, correction, reminders Member States îThough the ICAO Statistics Programme: Form M: New Form on performed fuel consumption by commercial air carriers collection, verification îIntegration of the reported performed fuel consumption into a database of modelled fuel consumption developed by ICAO Performed fuel consumption received by ICAO covers 50% of the world international traffic* Preliminary results to be discussed during A 38 *: expressed in Revenue Tonne-Kilometers on scheduled services 28 November 2020 Page 28
Main data sources • ICAO Statistics Programme (Air Transport Reporting Forms): – Fuel consumption: Form M – Traffic: • Form A: Commercial air carrier traffic by carrier • Form A-S: Total traffic of all commercial air carriers of a State • Form B: On-Flight Origin and Destination • Form C: Traffic by Flight Stage • Annual Report of the Council – Statistical tables • 28 November Revenue Cost Analysis (RCA) database 2020 Page 29
ICORAS Benefits ü Actual performed fuel consumption reported by Member States (50% of world international scheduled traffic) ü Reported fuel consumption enables benchmark and model accuracy improvements aligning fuel burn estimates with actual fuel consumed data. ü Sophisticated validation routines of ICORAS improves accuracy and consistency of results. ü Facilitates reporting of fuel burn and associated metric harmonized with Annual Report data. ü Facilitates policy making activities of States 28 November 2020 Page 30
Challenges linked to different definitions of International Aviation For example, Ninth Freedom Right or “stand alone” cabotage is: Ninth Freedom Right: Operate only in a foreign State Source: Doc 9626 - Manual on the Regulation of International Air Transport It represents: – International traffic for ICAO – Domestic traffic for UNFCCC 28 November 2020 Page 31
Challenges linked to the different Reporting Systems • ICAO Member States report fuel consumption of their own air carriers and not by State of Departure • To properly report to UNFCC, the fuel consumption by State of Departure of the Aircraft needs to be derived 28 November 2020 Page 32
Next steps 1) Encourage States to report in a timely and accurate manner to the ICAO Statistics Programme 2) Consider the best approach to integrate – non-scheduled traffic and – business jet data into the ICORAS system. 28 November 2020 Page 33
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