Hydrodynamic Modeling Summary Hydrodynamic Modeling Click to edit

Hydrodynamic Modeling Summary: Hydrodynamic Modeling Click to edit Master text styles – Second level Still working on it • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level Dave Schwab Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI 16 -18, 2010 November 15 -18, 11

Hydrodynamic Modeling Team Develops, tests, integrates, and implements numerical models of lake levels, waves, and lake thermal structure to Click to circulation, edit Masterwater text styles understand predict the effects of the physical environment on – Second level the ecosystem • Third level – Fourth level Meteorology/ Ice Climatology » Fifth level Integrated Ecological Modeling Framework Hydrodynamics Hydrology Ecology Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15 -18, 2010 22

Key Scientific Questions How can we better characterize the exchange of momentum and between thestyles atmosphere and the lake because these Clickheat to edit Master text are the primary forces that determine lake circulation? – Second level • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI 16 -18, 2010 November 15 -18, 33

What are the critical factors that limit our ability to accurately predict physical phenomena in the lakes? Click to edit Master text styles – Second level • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level Measured (black) and predicted (red) currents in Lake St. Clair November 15 -18, 2010 Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI 44

What are the appropriate linkages between physics and biology for particular ecological processes? Click to edit Master text styles – Second level • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level 7 -day forecast for location of Microcystis bloom in Lake Erie 55 Sept. 13, 2010 Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15 -18, 2010

How do we effectively provide information from hydrodynamic models to our collaborators, users, and constituents? Click to edit Master text styles – Second level • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15 -18, 2010 66

Hydrodynamics Modeling Team Scales of Application Years Model-Based Months Weeks Frequency of Forecast Click to edit Master text styles Ecosystem Forecasts – Second level • Hydrodynamic Third level Seasons – Fourth level and Ice Models » Fifth level Climate Impacts Ecosystem Change Exposure Risk Habitat Migration Species Abundance Invasive Spread Larval Pathways Spill Response Days Scenario-Based Forecasts Resource Recovery Disease Transmission Hypoxia Formation Trajectory-Based Forecasts Beach Advisories Spatial Extent of Forecast Local Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI Regional November 15 -18, 2010 Global 77

Research Leading to GLCFS • Dynamical storm surge forecasts for Lakes Erie and Huron 76 -79 Click to edit Master text styles – Second level • Great Lakes wave forecast model (GDWM) • Third level 84 – Fourth level Fifth levelof overlake winds • Objective» analysis 80 -89 88 -90 89 90 -91 • Coast. Watch SST for the Great Lakes • 3 D hydrodynamic circulation model of Lake Erie • Demonstration of operational GLCFS at OSU Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI 16 -18, 2010 November 15 -18, 88

GLCFS Transition to Operations Click to edit Master text styles – Second level • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level 1991 / 2003 GLERL Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI Coastal Forecasting System November 15 -18, 2010 CO-OPS National Digital 99 Forecast Database

Huron-Erie Connecting Waterways Forecasting System • Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model unstructured grid Click to edit Master text styles • Nowcasts / forecasts of hourly – Second level water levels and currents • Third level • Link model with output from GLCFS – Fourth level • Updated every 6 hrs » Fifth level 15 -18, 2010 Lake. November St. Clair Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI 10 10

High Resolution Hydrodynamic Models Click to edit Master text styles – Second level • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level 16 -18, 2010 November 15 -18, Grid Nesting and Unstructured Grids Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI 11 11

Experimental Validation of Model Simulations: Grand River Plume June 2, 2007 Click to edit Master text styles – Second level • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level June 6, 2007 Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI June 10, 2007 June 20, 2007 November 15 -18, 2010 12 12

Hydrodynamic Modeling - Visualization Click to edit Master text styles – Second level • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI 16 -18, 2010 November 15 -18, 13 13

Hydrodynamic Modeling - Customers • NOAA NWS Great Lakes Offices - Marine forecasts to edit Master text. Central styles River Forecast Center - Water Levels • Click NOAA NWS - North – Second level • NOAA NOS CO-OPS - Coastal forecasts Third level - Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie • NOAA • NOS/OHHII – Fourth • National Ice Centerlevel - Water temperature and ice » Fifth level • USCG SAR - Search and rescue planning • NOAA HAZMAT - Spill response • U. S. Geological Survey - Spill Response • Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District - Water temperature • Niagara River Control Center - Water Levels • UW-Milwaukee/SUNY Buffalo - Nested Grid Modeling • Recreational users: sport fishing, boating, swimming In addition, dozens of academic, private sector, and other public agencies make requests for various archived products from GLCFS Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI 16 -18, 2010 November 15 -18, 14 14

Questions? Click to edit Master text styles – Second level • Third level – Fourth level » Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15 -18, 2010 15 15