Hydro Power 101 2006 The Pacific Northwest Power

Hydro Power 101 2006

The Pacific Northwest Power Supply 2

PNW Firm Generating Resources 3

The Hydroelectric System 4

5

Comparison of Storage Volume to Variations in Runoff 6

Variability in PNW Hydro Generation 7

Monthly Shape of River Flow and PNW Electricity Demand 8

Typical Reservoir Operation 9

Natural and Regulated River Flows 10

Balance between Resources and Demand 11

Historic Load/Resource Balance (Based on Critical Hydro) 12

What’s Happened Since 2000? (Incremental Changes) 13

Forecast L/R Balance (all load forecasts, critical hydro) 14

Changes to the Hydroelectric Operation for Fish and Wildlife 15

Types of Changes Ø Flow Augmentation – Hold back winter water for later release during spring and summer migration season to shorten travel time Ø Bypass Spill – Route some flows around turbines to increase passage survival 16

Milestones in Fish Recovery Ø Ø Ø Ø 1984 1992 1994 1998 2000 2003 2004 – – Council’s Water Budget and Spill Council’s Strategy for Salmon Council’s Revised F&W Program NMFS Biological Opinion Council’s Revised F&W Program NMFS Amended Bi. Op 17

Summary of Changes (affecting mainstem passage) Ø Increased volume for flow augmentation Ø Longer flow augmentation period Ø Increased bypass spill levels Ø Longer period for bypass spill 18

Flow Augmentation Period 19

Max Flow Augmentation Volumes 20

Changes in River Flows (since 1980) 21

Change in Hydro Generation (Relative to an operation with no fish constraints) 22

Annual Cost of Fish and Wildlife Hydro Operations 23

2006 Forecast Market Price for Electricity 24

Evaluating the Cost for 2006 (Energy Loss and Market Price) 25

Average Monthly Regional Energy Cost 26

Dealing with Uncertainties

Historical Runoff at The Dalles 2005 Forecast 69% of Average 28

Recent Runoff Volumes (January-July Volume at The Dalles) 29

Variation in Cost due to Water Conditions (2006) 30

Cost Probability Curve (2006) 31

Fish and Wildlife Cost Components

Bypass Spill and Flow Costs 33

Bi. Op Flow Costs (Generally, as runoff increases, cost goes down) 34

Bypass Spill Costs (A non-linear function of runoff) 35

Anatomy of Bypass Spill Costs 36