HWRF wNew GFS H 048 10212009 Operational HWRF

HWRF w/New GFS (H 048) 10/21/2009 Operational HWRF was run for the following storms using Phase 1 GFS upgrades following list of cases provided by NHC/Richard Pasch: Atlantic 2008: (272 cases) • Hurricane Bertha (02 L); TS Cristobal (03 L); Hurricane Dolly (04 L); TS Fay (06 L); Hurricane Gustav (07 L); Hurricane Hanna (08 L); Hurricane Ike (09 L); Hurricane Omar (15 L) East Pac 2008: (128 cases) • Hurricane Elida (05 E); Hurricane Fausto (06 E); Hurricane Genevieve (07 E); Hurricane Marie (14 E); Hurricane Norbert (15 E) Atlantic 2009: (73 cases) • Hurricane Bill (03 L); TS Claudette (04 L); TS Danny (05 L); TS Erika (06 L); Hurricane Fred (07 L) East Pac (2009): (85 cases) • TS Hilda (11 E), TS Ignacio (12 E), Hurricane Jimena (13 E); Hurricane Linda (15 E), TS Olaf (18 E) • Hurricanes Felicia (08 E) and Guilermo (10 E) are yet to be run – GFS reruns for all four cycles corresponding to these dates are currently in progress. • Reruns for TS Hilda and Ignacio are not requested by NHC (but still included) 1

Track Errors: 2008 Atlantic Storms 2

Intensity Errors: 2008 Atlantic Storms 3

Intensity Bias for 2008 Atlantic Storms 4

Track Errors: 2008 East-Pac Storms 5

Intensity Errors: 2008 East-Pac Storms 6

Intensity Bias for 2008 East-Pac Storms 7

Track Errors: 2009 Atlantic Storms 8

Intensity Errors: 2009 Atlantic Storms 9

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Track Errors: 2009 East Pac Storms 11

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Intensity Bias for 2009 E-Pac Storms 13

Atlantic 2008 Track Forecasts E-Pac 2008 Track Forecasts 14