Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP

Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 2008 AMS Annual Meeting - HFIP 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Town Hall

Vision • Significantly improve forecast guidance with modeling systems capturing range of natural variability in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure with sufficient fidelity to predict rapid intensity changes with minimal uncertainty. VTMAX ensembles 2 62 nd IHC

Overarching Research • • What physical processes limit predictability of track, intensity and structure? • Large scale wind and moisture structure and variability • Convection in vorticity-rich environment (VHT) • Air-sea exchange of momentum and enthalpy • Vortex dynamics and evolution (resiliency, mixing, VRW) • Upper ocean structure and mesoscale variability • Aerosols and microphysics What is best way to represent natural variability of processes in model system? • Ensembles (multi-model, single model/multiple physics, /initial state, /resolutions, etc. ) • Representation of physical processes • Resolution, domain size, and nesting • What is best mix of data for model initialization? 3 62 nd IHC

HFIP • Unified NOAA approach to guide and accelerate improvements in forecasts, with emphasis on rapid intensity change, and reduction in uncertainty. • Improve forecasts and increase confidence to enhance mitigation and preparedness decisions. • Responds to input from stakeholders, NSB, OFCM, and HIRWG reports. • Embraces strong collaboration with non-NOAA partners with objective to transition research into operations. 4 62 nd IHC

HFIP Research Thrusts • Intensity and structure change, with emphasis on RI: processes that modulate internal storm dynamics and storm interactions with atmosphere and ocean; • Track: interactions between tropical cyclone and its environment through optimal use of observations; • Forecast Uncertainty: global and regional model ensembles to bound uncertainty and test predictability V MAX <V > 5 62 nd IHC

HFIP Components • Improve HFS/GFS to reduce error in track and intensity forecasts Understanding • Optimize new and existing observing systems to enhance research and operations capabilities and impacts FF • Expand forecast tools and applications to aid forecasters 6 62 nd IHC

HFIP Objectives Overlap with Table 5. 1 with focus on transition to operations: • Guide and accelerate HFS improvements (HFS) • Develop observing system strategy analysis capability (OSE) • Fully fund transition of research to operations (R 2 O) • Increase high performance computing (res & ops) • Coordinate with research community on basic research • NOAA cannot meet goals alone! • Broaden base of expertise in tropical cyclone research community • Work closely with federal, academic, and private sector communities 7 62 nd IHC

OFCM TC Research Plan Table 5 -1. Research Priorities in Atmospheric and Ocean Science √ HFIP HFS √ √ √ √ B, R 2 O B, OSE √ √ √ B, 8 62 nd IHC

OFCM TC Research Plan √ HFIP R 2 O 9 62 nd IHC

Questions? 2008 AMS Annual Meeting - HFIP Town Hall

Background Material 2008 AMS Annual Meeting - HFIP Town Hall

HFIP Leadership (HEOB) The membership of the HFIP Executive Oversight Board (HEOB) includes: NWS AA, Dr. John L. Hayes (Co-Chair) OAR AA, Dr. Richard Spinrad (Co-Chair) NESDIS AA, Ms. Mary Kicza NOS AA, Mr. John H. Dunnigan NMFS Senior Designee, Ms. Bonnie Ponwith PPI AA, Dr. Paul Doremus (Acting) NMAO, Director or Designee (TBD) Director, NHC/NWS, Dr. Edward Rappaport (Acting) Director, AOML/OAR, Dr. Robert Atlas Director, NCEP/NWS, Dr. Louis Uccellini Director, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Mr. Sam Williamson 12 62 nd IHC

HFIP Team Dr. Frank Marks and Dr. Ahsha Tribble were selected as the Project Lead and Deputy Project Lead, respectively. They formed a project team including: Program Manager, Environmental Modeling Program: Mr. Fred Toepfer Program Designee, Local Forecasts and Warnings: Mr. Scott Kiser Program Manager, Science and Technology Infusion or designee: Dr. Chris Fairall NESDIS Representative: Dr. Mark De. Maria Hurricane Program Director, Aircraft Operations Center: Dr. Jim Mc. Fadden Program Manager, NMAO Aircraft Services: RADM Phil Kenul HWRF Program Manager and EMC Hurricane Lead: Dr. Naomi Surgi OFCM/JAG/TCR representative: Mr. Mark Welshinger ELDP Candidate (NWS): Mr. Mark Mc. Inerney Executive Secretariat: 13 NWS/Dr. Daniel Meléndez OAR/Mr. Roger Pierce 62 nd IHC

Scope of HFIP NSB Impacts on Engineered Structures OFCM HFIP Ecosystem Impacts Rainfall and Inland Flooding HIRWG Modeling and Data Assimilation Storm Surge Observing Strategies and Observations Uncertainty T 2 O Critical mass Hurricane Modification Operational Needs Basic Process Research Socio-Economic Impacts Forecasting Climate Interactions Preparedness and Response 14 62 nd IHC

Significance of Rapid Intensity Change Rapid intensity (RI) change (≥ 30 kt in 24 hours) has a significant impact on preparedness and evacuation actions for emergency managers • Greatest forecast challenge for hurricane forecasters • Not handled well by current operational models • High priority in HIRWG report and the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) • 83% of major hurricanes have at least 1 RI event – Major hurricanes are responsible for 80% of all hurricane damage • Linked to changes in storm structure and storm surge Research and operational efforts necessary to improve forecasts of rapid intensity change will also improve intensity and track forecasts. 15 62 nd IHC

HFIP Performance Metrics I. Reduce average track error at Days 1 – 5 II. Reduce average intensity error at Days 1 – 5 III. Increase probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change for Days 1 – 5 IV. Decrease false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change for Days 1 – 5 V. Quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the forecast guidance 16 62 nd IHC

Short Term Actions: Priorities and Payoffs High Resolution Model and Other Model Enhancements • Technical staff with modeling and software engineering expertise • R&D for HFS/GFS to demonstrate, using DOE HPC system, high resolution and ensemble prediction capability and address data assimilation challenges • HFS/HWRF R&D and upgrades sustained • Storm Surge Testbed Enhance HPC Capability • NOAA R&D computing to support HFS/GFS development including software engineering Research to Operations (R 20) Enhancements • Increase funding for the JHT (includes staffing) • Increase support for the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JSCDA) • Targeted field programs and operational flights Broaden expertise and expand interaction with external community • Establish a visiting scientist/Post Doc program • Advisory committees, community workshops • Permanent HFIP Staff and infrastructure 17 PAYOFFS: • Staffing and computing infrastructure established to evaluate potential model improvements • Targeted high resolution and ensemble model research and development funded • Demonstration completed on the impact of forecast performance using the high resolution model system on DOE system– decision point for NOAA HPC investment • Upgrades to HFS/HWRF implemented operationally, and HFS/HWRF on a path to 4 km resolution • Storm surge testbed established • Staff and infrastructure established for enhanced transition of research to operations • Broaden community expertise through visiting scientists • Involvement with external community for modeling R&D and development of forecast tools through JHT, DTC, and JCSDA 62 nd IHC