Human population Lecture 6 EB 2008 Case Study

Human population Lecture 6 EB 2008

Case Study A • China

China • China has the most humans of any country, at this time - 1. 35 billion. • The rate of population growth around 1970 was 5. 8 children per women, or 2. 8% • Implemented social programs to control population - education and requesting later marriage and child bearing • This reduced the rate to 1. 8% • It was still to high for the government…

China • In 1979 the system was changed to reward families who had just one child - benefits – – – Preferred schooling Medical care Housing Government jobs Better time off • Those who had more were fined, benefits removed, etc. • It worked the rate of population growth dropped to just 0. 6%

Case Study 2 • • India Current population = 1, 129, 866, 154 (2007) Growth rate is 1. 606% (2007 est. )

India • India's state of emergency between 1975 and 1977 included an infamous family planning initiative beginning April 1976 • This involved the vasectomy of thousands of men and tubal ligation of women, • either for payment or • under coercive conditions • It did lower the rate of population increase.

India & China • The move followed predictions that, if present trends continue, • India's population will exceed 1. 25 billion by the year 2016 • and could overtake China's by the middle of the century.

Population Growth Rate • Now about 1. 2% • Was around 2. 1% in 1960 • But what does it mean, 1. 2%? • It means that if you have $1 in your pocket today then next year at a simple rate of increase of 1. 2% you will have $1. 012 • NOT MUCH…….

Rate of Growth • Apply this to a population and this steady growth rate will outstrip the planet one day! • At 2. 1% a population doubles in size in 33. 3 years • Remember this formula: – Take 70 and DIVIDE this by the rate of population growth, 2. 1%. The answer (33. 3) give the number of years for a population to double.

Rate of Growth exercise • You are the head of a country and your population is growing at 0. 5%. • How long for it to double? • • How about at 5. 5%? How about at 10%? And at 0. 1%? How would you control your population growth?

Why more people? • • • SIMPLE More births than deaths now. Better sanitation Better medical care Better agriculture Overall better technology really

What’s the problem? • Quality of life is the main issue – We can raise our technology so fast. – As the population increases each person will want the same as the others and we simply will not be able to supply that. • National Security is the other – Economies are tied to people power – Less people means less money, less manpower, smaller army!!!!!

Population numbers alone? • Population alone is not the immediate issue • Other factors impact the environment – One model is the IPAT – Impact = Pop x Affluence x Technology Talk this one out with your group. How does each parameter impact the others Which country is leading in this aspect?

Ways to predict future trends • TFR = Total Fertility Rate • Average # of children born per female • Replacement fertility is the rate which keeps the population stable. • This number for humans is 2. 1 – Below 2. 1 (no immigration) = population decline

Rural vs Urban • Rural – More children = more hands = more food • Urban – More children = school costs = less – Both parents working – Help from government

On the decline • 2005 data shows that: – 18 out of 43 European countries has a TFR of less than 2. 1 – 71 countries worldwide had a TFR of less than 2. 1 – In fact in total those countries with about 50% of the human population are seeing a TFr of less than 2. 1…. .

� Demographic transition • As conditions improve life expectancy goes up - from 46 in the 1960 s to 67 now • Better sanitation and better social structure = less infant deaths • A model has been proposed to account for this change from rural to urban lifestyle the demographic transition… • 4 stages

Population & Society • The following impact the Demographic Transition: • 1) Women's views - social empowerment of women = Drop in TFR – Access to Contraception and Education – Sub-Saharan Africa has low level of contraceptive use = below 10% = TFR 5. 6% – Children are better cared for, healthier, and better educated.

Population & Society • The following impact the Demographic Transition: • 2) Family-planning programs are working to lower TFR all across the globe. • Even in less industrialized countries • Thailand 1960 s was 2. 3% now 0. 7% • No more command control’ tactics • Better to offer incentives…

Starting in 2001, the Bush administration withheld funds, saying that U. S. law prohibits funding any organization that supports or participates in the management of a program of coercive abortion or involuntary sterilization, and claiming that the Chinese government has been implicated in both. Many nations criticized the U. S. decision, and the European Union offered UNFPA additional funding to offset the loss of U. S. contributions. 1. 2. What do you think of the U. S. decision? Should the United States fund family-planning efforts in other nations? 3. What conditions, if any, should it place on the use of such funds?

• • 3) Poverty Rural regions = poverty Developing nations = poverty Most of the next 1 billion will be added to developing countries • BAD NEWS… • Poverty = environmental degradation

• 4) Consumption is built on environmental destruction! • Wealth = larger impact • Affluence comes with a large price tag, which is massive resource consumption • USA, Japan, Canada • Lifestyle impact • Ecological footprint is larger

Ecological Footprint • In 1987 we passed the capacity of the Earth to sustain mankind. • We are now living at about 20% above that capacity with more burdens to come. • Will technology save us again?

Conflict! • The poverty line has been set by the US at $2. 00 per day • 1/5 of the pop possess over 80 x the income of the poorest 1/5 • Richest 1/5 of the pop uses 86% of the resources - that is you and me folks! • Failure could be disastrous for developing nations • = War and conflict