http upload wikimedia orgwikipediaen88 cB29Bomberonalongrangemissioninlate1945 jpg http www

http: //upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/en/8/8 c/B-29_Bomber_on_a_long_range_mission_in_late_1945. jpg http: //www. aviation-history. com/boeing/b 47 -1. jpg http: //www. b-58 hustler. com/images/B 58 E. jpg

反彈道飛彈條約 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty 」器武性擊攻「的定穩壞破 http: //behance. vo. llnwd. net/profiles/57492/projects/174313/574921232897732. jpg

美蘇戰略核武態勢 http: //upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/9/9 e/NATO_vs_Warsaw_(1949 -1990). png

攻守理論（Offense-Defense Theory）傑維斯 Robert Jervis 1940~ 奎斯特 George H. Quester 1936 ~ 藉由防禦性武器展現和平意圖當防禦占優勢時能促進穩定 Security Dilemma, Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma, ” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2 (January 1978), pp. 167 -214. George H. Quester, Offense and Defense in the International System (New York : Wiley , 1977 )

「攻守平衡」 offense-defense balance 防禦佔優勢攻擊佔優勢可分「攻守區分」 offense-defense differentiation 不可分

http: //cache 2. artprintimages. com/p/LRG/46/4615/9 OKFG 00 Z/art-print/robert-hunt-french-75 mm-field-gun-model-1897 -during-world-war-i. jpg http: //scharch. org/Ray_Baer/Weapon, %20 Germany%20 -Big%20 Bertha. JPG http: //www. corbisimages. com/images/HU 037082. jpg? size=67&uid=B 3 E 73 F 07 -3 FF 4 -43 D 2 -8 A 2 A-04 BDA 3 DBA 342

http: //www. wereldoorlog 1418. nl/warpictures/trenches/images-trenches/15 -german-stormtroopers-during-attack-gw 000. jpg http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/File: Western_front_1918_german. jpg

http: //warfare. ru/thumb. aspx? img =0702 ey 70/update/january 2004/malutka. jpg http: //www. raf. mod. uk/rafspadeadam/rafcms/mediafiles/gallery/5 EA 7 B 533_1143_EC 82_2 E 9 C 3 B 55 F 6355536/SA-6_gainful_Russe_21. jpg

穩定的冷戰? http: //upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/9/9 e/NATO_vs_Warsaw_(1949 -1990). png

沒有充分共識的平衡判斷 Gortzak, Yoav, Yoram Z. Haftel and Kevin Sweeney. 2005. “Offense-Defense Theory: An Empirical Assessment, ” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(1): 87.

經過我們的檢驗，攻守平衡與國際戰爭或軍事爭端的發生之間相關程度很有限，不似攻守理論的提倡者們所宣稱，攻守理論的解釋力十分可疑。 Gortzak, Yoav, Yoram Z. Haftel and Kevin Sweeney. 2005. “Offense-Defense Theory: An Empirical Assessment, ” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(1): 67 -89. 戈札克 Yoav Gortzak 哈夫特爾 Yoram Z. Haftel 斯文尼 Kevin Sweeney

成對的攻守平衡葛雷瑟 Charles L. Glaser 考夫曼 Chaim Kaufmann 平衡只能成對地測定最佳化假設突破階段作為測量捷徑技術與地理之外的因素也應納入 Charles L. Glaser and Chaim Kaufmann, “What is the Offense-Defense Balance and Can We Measure It? ” International Security, Vol. 22, No. 4 (Spring 1998), pp. 44 -82.

http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/File: Saint_Lo_and_Vicinity_-_Operation_Cobra. jpg http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/File: Saint_Lo_and_Vicinity. jpg

科技部隊大小 Technology Force Size 聯盟行為地理 Alliances Geography 民族主義 Nationalism 先發制人優勢 First-move Advantages 資源累積 Cumulativity of Resources 技術與地理之外的因素也應納入

部隊運用方式 force employment 彼德 Stephen Biddle 勒平衡只能以會戰為單位測量部隊運用方式為主要因素政治社會因素所致 Stephen Biddle, "Rebuilding the Foundations of Offense-Defense Theory, " Journal of Politics, Vol. 63, No. 3 (August 2001), pp. 741 -774.

http: //www. pacificenvironment. org/img/original/Krai. Steppe. jpg 平衡只能以會戰為單位測量 http: //www. travelaboutinc. com/images/20 -Tulip%20 Fields, %20 Netherland. jpg http: //www. dzdirect. com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/rhine-river-photo. jpg http: //www. strategybydesign. org/storage/WWII%20 map%20 of%20 europe. jpg

政治社會因素所致電腦模擬：也沒有真的解決計算問題… http: //thecia. com. au/reviews/e/images/enemy-at-the-gates-800. jpg

攻擊-防禦-嚇阻平衡 Offense-Deterrence Balance 嚇阻是一種比防禦更強的形式亞當 Karen 斯aren Ruth Adams K 平衡是整個體系中的概況科技為主要因素平衡應以整個作戰的結果為準平衡應演繹地推論而非歸納地計算 Karen Ruth Adams, “Attack and Conquer? International Anarchy and the Offense -Defense-Deterrence Balance , ” International Security, Vol. 28, No. 3 (Winter 2003/2004), pp. 45 -83.

一個特定的科技條件下，只會有一種最適當的戰法，國家或早或晚都得採納… p 社會化順應體系獲獎勵反抗體系受懲罰 p 競爭科技為主要因素 http: //www. wereldoorlog 1418. nl/warpictures/trenches/images-trenches/15 -german-stormtroopers-during-attack-gw 000. jpg http: //www. independent. co. uk/multimedia/archive/00144/lifelead_144646 s. jpg

平衡應以整個作戰的結果為準 http: //www. normandybattlefields. com/battlemap 2. gif