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金融 程 第十一章 布莱克 -舒尔斯 -默顿期权定价模型 厦门大学金融系 郑振龙 陈蓉 http: // efinance. org. cn http: // aronge. net Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong, XMU
HS 300指数: 2005. 1. 5~ 2012. 10. 16 蓉 学 陈 大 门 t© h ig 厦 r y p Co Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 9
市场有效理论与随机过程 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 10
证明(1)泰勒展开 G 的泰勒展开式为: Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 16
(4)取极限 代入 可得 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 19
应用 1:衍生品价格所服从的随机过程 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 21
S = 50, µ = 0. 18, σ = 0. 2, T − t = 0. 5 年 因此 6 个月后ST的概率分布为 即 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 27
Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 29
1900-2000主要国家股指实际收益率 蓉 学 陈 大 门 t© h ig 厦 r y p Co Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 31
预期收益率 µ Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 32
样本间隔/计算方式比较 蓉 学 陈 大 门 t© h ig 厦 r y p Co Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 34
由于在风险中性世界中 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 49
积分可得 其中 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 50
BSM 期权定价公式的推导 由于 和 令 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 51
其中 显然 即随机变量 W 的密度函数 h(W) 为 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 52
Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 53
理解BSM定价公式I Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 54
理解 II 从金融 程的角度来看,欧式看涨期权可以 分拆成或有资产看涨期权( Asset-or-nothing Call Option )多头和 X 份或有现金看涨期权 ( Cash-or-nothing Call Option )空头之和 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 55
理解 III Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 56
波动率微笑 - 58 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU
波动率期限结构 隐含波动率与期限的关系 黄金期货期权波动率期限结构(2014. 6. 3) 18 17 16 C P 15 14 13 2013年 2月 2014年 7月 2015年 11月 2017年 3月 2018年 8月 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 2019年 12月 59
限 期 余 剩 隐含波动率曲面 在值程度 - 60 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU
欧式平价期权的定价公式 欧式平价看涨期权 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 61
平价期权 c/S与波动率与期限的关系 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 62
Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 66
估计标的资产价格的波动率 I 历史波动率 样本对数收益率标准差(案例 11. 7 ) 广义自回归条件异方差模型( Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, GARCH )和随机波动率模型 隐含波动率 Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 72
Any Questions? Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 76
Email: zlzheng@xmu. edu. cn aronge@xmu. edu. cn Copyright © 2014 Zheng, Zhenlong & Chen, Rong,XMU 77
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