http charmex lsce ipsl fr Future evolution of

http: //charmex. lsce. ipsl. fr Future evolution of air mass composition over the Mediterranean area – impact of climate change and emission scenarios Global I. Coll, M. Beekmann, A. Colette Regional Climate change Future chemical composition need to be coherent RCP’s Global Regional emission change Audition MISTRALS/Ch. Ar. MEx, Orly, 5 sept. 2014, X. Nom et al. Biogenic/ natural emission change 1/Total

http: //charmex. lsce. ipsl. fr General GCM-CTM approach to quantify the effects of climate change on air quality Socioeconomic emission scenario greenhouse gas emissions ozone-PM precursor emissions input meteorology Global climate model (GCM) Global chemical transport model (CTM) Regional climate boundary model (RCM) conditions Audition MISTRALS/Ch. Ar. MEx, Orly, 5 sept. 2014, X. Nom et al. boundary conditions Regional CTM for ozone-PM AQ input meteorology Jacob and Winner [2009] 2/Total

http: //charmex. lsce. ipsl. fr General GCM-CTM approach to quantify the effects of climate change on air quality ozone-PM Socioeconomic Such a chainprecursor is available from emissions emission scenario greenhouse gas emissions input meteorology Global climate model (GCM) Global chemical transport model (CTM) Regional climate boundary model (RCM) conditions Audition MISTRALS/Ch. Ar. MEx, Orly, 5 sept. 2014, X. Nom et al. boundary conditions Regional CTM for ozone-PM AQ input meteorology Jacob and Winner [2009] 3/Total

http: //charmex. lsce. ipsl. fr Name Climate Boundary conditions Emissions 2005 V 4 a CLE* 2005 +2°C RCP 4. 5 2050 V 4 a CLE* 2050 HISTORICAL 1971 -2000 S 1 Courtesy to WP 8 Impact 2 C team Audition MISTRALS/Ch. Ar. MEx, Orly, 5 sept. 2014, X. Nom et al. 4/Total

http: //charmex. lsce. ipsl. fr Future evolution of air mass composition over the Mediterranean area Proposed method : Global ð Exploit general model set with focus on mediterranean basin Regional => base case Climate change ð Adapt models + emission data with new knowledge from CHARMEX Future (aerosol scheme, aerosol + gaseous species budgets) chemical => CHARMEX case composition need to be coherent ð Downscale for specific regions (for exemple Southern France, need RCP’s for specific emissions scenarios ) => regional CHARMEX case Global Biogenic/ natural. Adème/Mistrals, INERIS, Thèse d’Arineh Cholakian 2014 -2017 , Funding Regional SAFMED, emission M. Beekmann, I. Coll (LISA) A. Colette (INERIS) interface WP 2 + WP 6 change Audition MISTRALS/Ch. Ar. MEx, Orly, 5 sept. 2014, X. Nom et al. 5/Total

http: //charmex. lsce. ipsl. fr Future evolution of air mass composition over the Mediterranean area Proposed method : Global Regional ð Adapt models + emission data with new knowledge from Climate CHARMEX change Future chemical Examples : composition need to be coherent ð Chose. RCP’s most suitable aerosol scheme, ð Include new processes (marine emissions + processing Global ð Scale emissions to fit to budget. Biogenic/ calculations natural Regional emission ð But also, better known uncertainty of models change Audition MISTRALS/Ch. Ar. MEx, Orly, 5 sept. 2014, X. Nom et al. 6/Total