How Will Aging and Feminization Affect the Future

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How Will Aging and “Feminization” Affect the Future Supply of Dentists? Thank you for

How Will Aging and “Feminization” Affect the Future Supply of Dentists? Thank you for joining! You will be on hold until the call begins at 11 a. m. Central time Please remember to mute your phone unless you are speaking. This webinar will be recorded. Streaming audio is available through your computer If you’d like to call in to listen to the audio via phone, dial 888. 203. 5515 and then enter conference ID: 65480706

The ADA Health Policy Institute © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 2

The ADA Health Policy Institute © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 2

The ADA Health Policy Institute © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 3

The ADA Health Policy Institute © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 3

Today ADA. org/HPI © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 4

Today ADA. org/HPI © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 4

Today CHAIR Marko Vujicic, Chief Economist & Vice President, ADA Health Policy Institute PRESENTER

Today CHAIR Marko Vujicic, Chief Economist & Vice President, ADA Health Policy Institute PRESENTER Bradley Munson, Senior Research Analyst, ADA Health Policy Institute PANELISTS Arpita Chattopadhyay, Chief, Workforce Analysis Branch, National Center for Health Workforce Analysis, Bureau of Health Workforce, Health Resources Service Administration Janet Guthmiller, Dean, College of Dentistry, University of Nebraska Medical Center Richard Valachovic, President & CEO, American Dental Education Association © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 5

Key Messages • We estimate the future supply of dentists in the U. S.

Key Messages • We estimate the future supply of dentists in the U. S. adjusting for expected shifts in age and gender mix. Age and gender affect hours worked and volume of patients seen. • In the most probable scenario, the per capita supply of dentists is projected to increase through 2035. • The issue of provider adequacy is more complex; further research is needed. © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 6

Methodology Graduates Retired Foreign-trained Moved out Re-licensure Un-retirement Practicing Dentist Death License lapse Exit

Methodology Graduates Retired Foreign-trained Moved out Re-licensure Un-retirement Practicing Dentist Death License lapse Exit labor force Emigration © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 7

Inflows © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 8

Inflows © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 8

Outflows © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 9

Outflows © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 9

Modeling Assumptions © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 10

Modeling Assumptions © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 10

Gender Mix © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 11

Gender Mix © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 11

Age Mix © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 12

Age Mix © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 12

Hours Worked Adjustment © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 13

Hours Worked Adjustment © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 13

Patient Visits Adjustment © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 14

Patient Visits Adjustment © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 14

Results © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 15

Results © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 15

Results © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 16

Results © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 16

Results © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 17

Results © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 17

Arpita Chattopadhyay Chief, Workforce Analysis Branch National Center for Health Workforce Analysis Bureau of

Arpita Chattopadhyay Chief, Workforce Analysis Branch National Center for Health Workforce Analysis Bureau of Health Workforce Health Resources Service Administration

Janet Guthmiller Dean, College of Dentistry University of Nebraska Medical Center

Janet Guthmiller Dean, College of Dentistry University of Nebraska Medical Center

Richard Valachovic President & CEO American Dental Education Association

Richard Valachovic President & CEO American Dental Education Association

Thank You! Learn more about other ADA Health Policy Institute work: ADA. org/HPI To

Thank You! Learn more about other ADA Health Policy Institute work: ADA. org/HPI To inquire about speaking engagements or custom data analytics, please contact: [email protected] org © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 21

Age Mix © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 22

Age Mix © 2016 American Dental Association. All Rights Reserved. 22