How to interpret collected data Seminar 5 23

How to interpret collected data? Seminar #5 23. 02. 2017 © Zaytsev D. G.

Research goal To identify the models of protest publics’ participation in processes of socio-political change in different countries and regions of the world (North and South America, North Africa and Middle East, Asia) © Zaytsev D. G. , Ullanov A. A.

Book: structure & main authors INTRODUCTION PART I. Theoretical and methodological issues to study protests PART II. Social Movements as the prerequisites and outcomes of Public Uprisings of 2010 s PART III. “Protest Publics”: An Emergent Actor of Socio-Political Change PART IV. Models of Protest Publics' Impact on Socio-Political Changes CONCLUSION © Zaytsev D. G. , Ullanov A. A.

Assumptions (1 -3) A 0: Protests of 2010 s ≠ Social Movements SEMINAR #1, 16. 01. 2016. Research Design. Part 1. BOOK, part II A 1: Social Movements are preconditions and possible outcomes of the protest publics that emerged in the 2010 s #3 Publics, . 30. 01. 2016. Research Design. Part Actor 2. BOOK, III A 2: Protests of. SEMINAR 2010 s = the New Emerging of part Change A 3: Protest Publics participate in socio-political change in different models SEMINAR #2. 24. 01. 2016. Research Design. Part 3. BOOK, part IV © Zaytsev D. G. , Ullanov A. A.

Conceptualization (2) © Anufriev A. , Zaytsev D. G. “Protest Publics” in Egypt and Turkey from 2011 Till Present Days: Assessment of Impact on Political Changes // Comparative Politics (Russia). 2016. Vol. 7. No. 2(23). P. 34 -47

Brazil: structure of the paper Protests in Brazil: Overview Factors of Political Changes in Brazil ü Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession ü Socio-cultural factors: lack of conventional social channels for selfexpression ü Political factors: deepening “legitimacy crisis” and request for participatory democracy Brazilian Protests as “public assemblies” around “troubled message” Protestors’ Demands in 2013 -2016: Participatory Democracy as a Unifying Identity? Political changes in Brazil 2013 -2016: from change in policy and politics to “punctuated” institutional changes Government’s reply: co-opting or splitting the protestors? Conclusion: from oversight to direct participation in democracy © Zaytsev D. G.

Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession © Zaytsev D. G.

Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession © Zaytsev D. G.

Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession © Zaytsev D. G.

Economic factors: from “crisis of hopes” to economic recession Country Code BRA Investment in transport with private participation (current Indicator Name US$) BRA BRA Government expenditure on education as % of GDP (%) Health expenditure, total GINI index (World (% of GDP) Bank estimate) 2000 1374500000 3, 93814 7, 02774504 2001 917200000 3, 84304 7, 19063692 59, 33 2002 181000000 3, 74435 7, 13005982 58, 62 2003 172900000 6, 94296392 58, 01 2004 433600000 3, 97255 7, 06793519 56, 88 2005 713400000 4, 47671 8, 26702693 56, 64 2006 450400000 4, 86989 8, 35570723 55, 93 2007 3696500000 4, 97835 8, 28058988 55, 23 2008 10476700000 5, 2727 8, 23798966 54, 37 2009 8990300000 5, 47154 8, 64909707 53, 87 2010 3699800000 5, 64737 8, 26736921 2011 6144900000 5, 73953 8, 0901717 53, 1 2012 21979500000 5, 91432 8, 26089862 52, 67 2013 11178100000 8, 48312451 52, 87 2014 32556600000 8, 32283359 © Zaytsev D. G.

Protestors’ Demands in 2013 -2016: Participatory Democracy as a Unifying Identity? © Zaytsev D. G.

Political changes in Brazil 2013 -2016: from change in policy and politics to “punctuated” institutional changes POLICY CHANGE: transport, education, anti-corruption SITUTIONAL CHANGE: Dilma support ranking fail, impeachment INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE: decline of democracy? TABLE 4 TABLE 8 © Zaytsev D. G.

Government’s reply: co-opting or splitting the protestors? Political crisis and elite split General political consensus: democratic development vs authoritarian modernization TABLE 8 TABLE 9 © Zaytsev D. G.