How governments can navigate a disrupted world Foresight

How governments can navigate a disrupted world: Foresight, agility, and resilience

How governments can navigate effectively in a disrupted world Coping with the COVID-19 challenges of today and thriving in tomorrow’s disruptive environment calls for enhanced capabilities in three areas: Foresight, agility, and resilience To anticipate near-term developments and the potential evolution of the post-COVID world Foresight Early foresight warnings trigger agile action: the less foresight, the greater the demand for agility and vice versa. . To adjust quickly in response to changes affecting customers, agency operations, and the broader ecosystem Agility Foresight identifies the forces that will place demands on resilience; the resilient organization institutionalizes foresight and a willingness to act in the face of uncertainty. Resilience To enable the organization to withstand potential future disruptions Resilient organizations create contingency plans to guide agile responses; agility allows resources to be surged allowing for resilience with lower investment redundancy. Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2

Foresight approach to uncertainty, trends, and risks UNDERSTANDING TRENDS SCENARIO ANALYSIS Trends discovery & monitoring Scenario tracking 6 1 Discover important trends and their strategic implications as they emerge by leveraging natural language processing and machine learnings to synthesize structured and unstructured sources Continuously scan the environment to monitor and track early warning indicators while testing and refining plans and scenario-based contingencies Horizon scanning & monitoring 5 2 Monitor and track structured and unstructured data sources on curated sub-topics and metrics for specific interest rates Develop an informed strategy robust across multiple scenarios, with clearly articulated scenario-specific action plans, hedges and bets FORESIGHT Identify risks & questions Scenario planning 3 4 Identify the major risks, questions and choices the ecosystem faces to ensure coverage of driving forces Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Scenario-based strategy Build a bias toward action in the face of uncertainty Build future scenarios through qualitative and quantitative identification and analysis of relevant drivers for the most important topic areas. 3

Keys to effectively leveraging scenarios Scenarios can help anticipate shifts in markets and input factors, providing foresight on supply chains, talent models, consumer expectations and engagement, and technology and business model evolution. Confronting uncertainty head-on and building it into your decisionmaking effectively entails the following: Consider uncertainty under different time horizons Identify the most salient uncertainties for your industry and business Use the uncertainties to envision multiple different futures Seek diverse perspectives Incorporate scenarios into decision-making Distinguish implications of different decisions Make choices, take actions today that are effective across scenarios and monitor 4 Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

Foresight: Singapore’s Center for Strategic Futures (CSF) Singapore began its futures planning work in the late 1980 s, initially for defense operations, and in the 1990 s and 2000 s created offices and programs focused on scenario analysis and horizon scanning. These efforts culminated in the 2009 establishment of the Center for Strategic Futures (CSF), a futures “think tank” that pursues open-ended, long-term futures research and experiments with new foresight methodologies. In addition to educating government stakeholders on its approach, CSF also facilitates sandbox events and quarterly meetings to discuss trends and implications. Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Source: Singapore Prime Minister’s Office, Public Service Division, “ Conversations for the future, ” 5

Agility to quickly and effectively respond to changing circumstances FAST, FLEXIBLE POLICY + DECISION-MAKING Stay ahead of unfolding events by using real -time data and predictive technology to Identify and track challenges before they erupt Rapidly adjust policy in response to situation Incorporating understanding of policies around privacy, healthcare protection, manufacturing, employees, etc. Responsive policy Anticipatory government ADAPTABLE ORGANIZATION FLUID FUNCTIONALITY Enable flexible engagement and coordination of public, private and non-profit sectors in areas from procurement to service delivery Enable seamless communication by eliminating data siloes and decision making cycles. Some services are linked to centralized command center as opposed to traditional organizational hierarchy Enable resources to be surged and rapidly redeployed across boundaries including utilizing digital technology to scale and enable flexible telework Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Workforce flexibility Pop-up ecosystems Reassign cross-trained workers and rapidly hire and train to expand capacity in critical overloaded areas such as health care and unemployment AGILITY Open organization Two-gear Government As-needed resourcing Innovative solutioning Manage existing operations in one hand while also actively exploring ways to address disruptive challenge in the near and long term improving future responses Develop new, often technology-based solutions via rapid prototyping, piloting, testing and validation, followed by quick scaling for impact 6

Agility: UAE Government Accelerators The United Arab Emirates’ Government Accelerators initiative is designed to accelerate change and enhance performance throughout government. The program runs 100 -day challenges in which “acceleration” teams of frontline staff work toward goals that could improve citizens’ lives in 100 days or less. To date, the UAE has conducted three 100 day challenge rounds, engaging more than 760 government workers and private employees. Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Source: Government Accelerators, UAE government initiative, “ The 100 -day challenge, ” 7

Resilience in the face of future disruption Be a tech-instinctive organization Be a learning organization Accelerated digitization Utilize digital technologies to build more resilient platforms for a robust health care system, stronger economic benefits, and a more adaptive agency. Customer insight Develop a deep understanding of citizen/ customer experience to enable insight into disruption’s impacts; the same principle applies to your workforce. Crisis management and communication Data strategy and cybersecurity Institute frameworks, tools, and approaches to expand the traditional crisis management plan to improve organization crisis response muscle memory and facilitate transparent, For governments to build resilience and respond dynamically, a robust data strategy and cybersecurity protocols remain critical. accurate, real-time information to key stakeholders and the public. Applied training and simulation Be flexible about the boundaries of your organization Robust networks and processes Ensure internal processes, supply chains and partner networks are robust and can quickly reconfigure to cope with shocks and breakdowns. Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. RESILIENCE Rapid and responsive procurement Develop smart, agile, resilient procurement processes that rethink supply chains, build external partner collaboration, create strategic stockpiles (where appropriate) and strategic access to capabilities while anticipating future needs. Provide training, and professional development experiences that build skills and ensure foresight, agility and resilience are embedded in the organization. This includes table-top and simulation exercises to pressure-test and develop the organization’s ability to withstand disruptive events. Workforce and workplace of the future Build a diverse and nimble workforce with cross -training, AI, gig and telework capabilities. 8

Resilience: Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations (Gavi) In 2000, many new technologies and medicines were available for children in the West, but weren’t finding their way to areas of desperate need. In that year, WHO, UNICEF, academics, pharmaceutical companies and various funders converged at the World Economic Forum in Davos and agreed it would be useful to have a single “roof” under which everyone interested in reshaping the vaccine market could confer. By pooling demand from developing countries for vaccines and matching it with reliable, long-term financing, Gavi assisted in the immunization of 66 million children in 2018 alone, preventing 13 million additional future deaths. Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Source: Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations, “ Facts and figures, ” 9

CONTACTS Deloitte Center for Government Insights 10 Government and Public Services Practice William D. Eggers Executive director, Deloitte Center for Government Insights Deloitte Services LLP +1 571 882 6585 weggers@deloitte. com Michael Flynn Global Financial Advisory Public Sector leader Deloitte LLP +35314172515 micflynn@deloitte. ie Bruce Chew Managing director Deloitte Consulting LLP + 1 617 437 3526 brchew@deloitte. com Daryl Sng Specialist leader, Monitor Deloitte, Strategy Deloitte Consulting LLP + 1 571 882 7228 dsng@deloitte. com Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

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