How good are models at Predicting Climate Change
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How good are models at Predicting Climate Change? Duane Waliser Scientist – Weather/Climate Modeling JPL/Caltech October 24, 2009
Your connections to climate change predictions The IPCC - established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess “the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human -induced climate change. ” More than 2, 000 scientists from ~150 countries typically participate. Reports in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007. ~20 Modeling Centers around the World; US has 3 model teams.
Climate Model Computer “Grid” Solve Equations on our fastest supercomputers Apply the Conservation Laws of Mass, Energy and Momentum and the Ideal Gasfor Law Similar Ocean, Land & Ice Systems
How well do these Climate Models Work for Simulating the 20 th Century Climate? Necessary inputs to our models are • a starting condition • imposed natural forcing (solar radiation, volcanoes) • Imposed man-made forcing (ozone, CO 2). Volcanoes Solar Greenhouse Ozone Natural & Man-Made Induced Changes Model Hindsight Pretty Good
Predicting the Future Technology, Politics & Society Plausible “Scenarios” For CO 2 Emissions
Where does the warming occur? IPCC, 4 th (2007) Assessment Report Projected Temperature Change In 2100 Multiply by ~2 for Fahrenheit 2099 -2070 Minus 1999 -1970
How About Our Backyard? IPCC, 4 th (2007) Assessment Report Systematic Warming 1. 5 - 3. 0 C 2. 7 - 5. 4 F Relatively Agreeable Decrease in snowpack is consistent - but how much: 20 -80%?
Reduce Remaining Uncertainties • Better/More Measurements • Faster/Better Computers & Infrastructure • Continued Dedication & Focus