How do Materials Affect Energy Sustainability Energy Limits

How do Materials Affect Energy Sustainability ? Energy Limits Materials Availability esp. Sustainable Availability ✔ but …. Do Materials Limit Energy Availability, esp. Sustainable Availability ? with Igor Lubomirsky David Cahen 2 -2015

Sustainable Energy availability defines the range of Materials that can be used sustainably but what about the inverse i. e. , does sustainable materials availability affect sustainable energy availability ? How will transitioning to new energy technologies affect materials production and consumption? Do we have the technological abilities to adapt? If yes, how? David Cahen 2 -2015

Why do we have to consider these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized. World Oil Energy Consumption by Sector, 1973 -2010 David Cahen 2 -2015

Why do we have to consider these questions ? If a technologically and economically viable energy alternative exists, can it be implemented and if it can, to what extent* and how fast? ** ------------------* ≤ few %, or 10 few 10 s of % of global energy use ? ** weeks, months, years, decades ? David Cahen 2 -2015

Postulate Transition to new technologies requires diversion of materials and energy Questions: 1. How much energy can be diverted without major disruptions to living standards? how flexible is energy consumption structure? 2. Can limitations on materials availability affect (energy) technology transitions ? David Cahen 2 -2015

Why do we consider these questions Well. . have whatto is energy used for? ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized. (= most of the “industry” part) 2010 David Cahen 2 -2015

Can some of this energy be redirected? Consider Transportation (nearly 30% of total)? Only ~8% of personal fuel consumption is “purely” recreational (~1. 6% of all transportation, 0. 5 % of total)! Energy usage in transportation in the US 2010 “Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010) David Cahen 2 -2015

Can some residential or commercial services energy use be redirected? Residential? (~ 25 % of total) Major fraction (>85%) is for heating and air conditioning. Commercial services? (~ 10 % of total) Energy consumption can be cut … at expense of important services ------------------------ From past* experience ~10% ( 3. 5% of total) *: e. g. , 2008/9 “Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010) David Cahen 2 -2015

Can some of the energy for materials processing be redirected? “Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010) David Cahen 2 -2015

Production of 5 materials requires > 50% of all energy for industry / materials processing 2010 (Haber-Bosch) (Hall-Héroult) 3% (15%) > 4% (> 30%) 1. 3% (6%) 1. 4% (7%) 2% (10%) 6% (30%) Because these 5 materials are vital, only a small part of the energy used for industry can be really diverted David Cahen 2 -2015

Can energy expenses for materials processing decrease with time? YES, but it takes time…* * e. g. , 3 -D Printing David Cahen 2 -2015

energy intensity (MJ/kg) Decreasing energy cost of material extraction from ore 1800 pig iron TD 2008 limit energy intensity (MJ/kg) production (x 106 tonnes) Al smelting 1890 2009 0000000 from: TD limit production (x 106 tonnes) David Cahen 2 -2015

Price of material (US$/kg) embodied energy (MJ/kg) The importance of “embodied energy” of materials world production/consumption (x 106 tonnes) embodied energy (MJ/kg) From: Dilution (1/concentration)(x 106 tonnes) David Cahen 2 -2015

Still, fraction of materials in total the total Still, thethe fraction of materials in the energy balance is likely to increase, WHY? because improved extraction technology is offset by decreased quality and ore exhaustion COPPER Gordon, R. B. , Bertram, M. , and Graedel, T. E. : Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006) Gupta and Hall. . Energy cost of materials. . David Cahen 2 -2015

Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase, and because of increased energy cost of extraction with decreasing ore quality COPPER Energy and greenhouse gas implications of deteriorating quality ore reserves; T. Norgate and S. Jahanshahi; CSIRO Minerals/Centre for Sustainable Resource Processing; URL : http: //www. minerals. csiro. au David Cahen 2 -2015

Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase, because discovery of new ores does not compensate for exhaustion COPPER R. B. , Bertram, M. , and Graedel, T. E. : Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006) Gupta and Hall. . Energy cost of materials. . David Cahen 2 -2015

Can materials consumption be restricted by increased efficiency of their use? David Cahen 2 -2015

Material intensity* decreases steadily * quantity of materials per unit of product decreases) USA UK Japan Does it mean that materials consumption will decrease? The socio-metabolic transition. Long term F. Krausmann et al. historical trends. . . David Cahen 2 -2015

Domestic Materials Consumption Well, …materials consumption / capita INCREASES because … living standards rise Krausmann at al… 2009 Mineral/fossil Biomass David Cahen 2 -2015

and, thus, absolute materials consumption accelerates exponentially also per capita !! F. Krausmann , …. , M. Fischer-Kowalski, Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20 th century, Ecological Economics, 68(10), 2696 -2705 (2009). David Cahen 2 -2015

Can materials consumption be restricted by increased efficiency of their use? Maybe, but it’ll take time… David Cahen 2 -2015

Availability of materials Can supply of materials be increased rapidly if technological need arises? David Cahen 2 -2015

Natural Abundance of Elements in Earth’s Crust can be misleading David Cahen 2 -2015

Price scales as a power law with abundance John R. Boyce, Biased Technological Change and the Relative Abundance of Natural Resources David Cahen 2 -2015

Production volumes should also scale with abundance Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others David Cahen 2 -2015

Availability of materials produced as by-products Can the supply of materials that are (mining) by-products* be increased rapidly if technological need arises? * contrast Se, Te, Ga, Cd, In, with primary (mining) products such as Fe, Cu, Al, Zn, Sn, Pb, cement, phosphate David Cahen 2 -2015

How does the need for materials that use mining by-products affect abilities to switch to renewable energy sources? David Cahen 2 -2015

Let’s look at materials for solar cells (valid until we pro-/re-gress[ed] to Pb…) David Cahen 2 -2015

ppm tonnes/yr Material’s availability for (thin film) PV: Cd. Te, CIGS ABUNDANCE in earth’s crust L. Peter, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 1840– 1856 doi: 10. 1098/rsta. 2010. 0348 COST $ / tonne Annual production of some “PV elements” Data for some thin film “PV elements” David Cahen 2 -2015

Annual production of Te in 2010 is 150 tonne (from Cu refinement) Current recovery rate is 33– 40% Increasing installed Cd. Te PV capacity from current 0. 01 TWpe to 0. 1 TWpe requires a few times increase in Cu production. In 2008 Cu production used 0. 08% of world energy. Increasing production by a few times will not be possible (quickly). Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey) and Fthenakis, V. : Sustainability metrics for extending thinfilm photovoltaics to terawatt levels, MRS Bulletin, 37(4), 425 (2012). David Cahen 2 -2015

Similar calculations can be done for other materials e l Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to b i exhaustion s Annual Known s with the production resources po current including m i consumption Increase in recycling Ga (or In)yproduction rate and l l requires increase in a. Al production technology c N/A Indium (Zn, Al) 2010 574 ti Probably <10 c Gallium Zn) 2008 can 184 athe increase N/A Probably <10 How (Al, large be? r p Tellurium (Cu) 2010 s 155 producers 22, 000 140 Only 10% of Al extract Ga m Selenium (Cu) 2009 2, 280 88, 000 39 e e S (US declined to disclose) Cadmium 660, 000 But (Zn) 2010 Si, Ti, 22, 000 Pb and organics… 30 are available in really large quantities Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey) David Cahen 2 -2015

Listed energy cost of the byproducts (excluding price of primary product) Approximate energy cost production (GJ t-1) Primary products Aluminum Steel Copper Cement Iron ore Lead Zinc Phosphate 188 29 135 6 3 31 76 0. 35 Secondary products Gallium Germanium Indium Selenium Tellurium Cadmium 50 40 40 116 4. 5 Gupta and Hall. . Energy cost of materials. . David Cahen 2 -2015 34

So, where does this leave us? (large) increase in by-production requires (large) increase in production of corresponding primary product maybe possible (or find alternatives), but not on short time* scales * weeks /months/few years David Cahen 2 -2015

Can recycling help? Yes, at least partially Current recycling 2010 Level (%) Pb >90 Fe 55 -65 Al 40 -50 Sn >50 Mg >40 Cu >25 Asphalt >75 (in USA) Ammonia (fertilizer) none Cement ( concrete) minor Apparent Extraction Efficiency (%) 2 23 15 12 7 3 -- --David Cahen 2 -2015

But sizeable fraction of materials (still) can’t be / aren’t recycled (Haber-Bosch) (Hall-Héroult) Recycled already >50% David Cahen 2 -2015

Conclusions: Sustainable energy availability is not exactly or always sustainable materials availability 1. 2. 3. r u o We will need time to have flexibility in y s s : resources our ability to divert ienergy to a e e e g r d new technologies. i n e e h l w , not awel cannincrease Whetheroor e h S production ofcmaterials will depend on d e abundance and on if they are by-products. e n e provide partial relief for a Recycling can W not all “major” materials. lot, though David Cahen 2 -2015