How do futures bear fruit in the present
How do futures bear fruit in the present? Dr Angela Wilkinson Futures Director, SSEE Panellists: Ms Kristel van der Elst Professor John Robinson Mr Ged Davis Planet Under Pressure 28 th March 2012
The Smith School ____________________ Enterprise and environment agenda Convening at the nexus of business, governments and academe Connected challenges Solutions orientated Enabling a transformational impact on environmental changes 2 www. smithschool. ox. ac. uk
‘Collaborative Futures’ at our core ____________________ Beyond the single future: predicable or more open plausible and preferable? Beyond the single actor Inertia: change is hard, transition is turbulent Partnerships/ Collaboration Futures Many methods – visioning, scenarios, modelling. . . New space for shared learning and strategy: the physical present and virtual and conceptual futures Learning to live with uncertainty Sustainability Beyond the single issue Connected challenges of the anthropocene Future orientation Combining intuition, imagination and rigorous analysis
Collaborative futures ____________________ Scenarios and models and visioning to inform realistic pathways and identify key milestones EU value creation model
Low Carbon Mobility Futures Programme ____________________ 5
Learning ‘’with’ futures (not about them)! ____________________
Resource Futures work at the World Economic Forum Kristel Van der Elst, Director, Strategic Foresight Team www. weforum. org/issues/strategic-foresight
Strategic Foresight at the World Economic Forum Engaging communities in strategic conversations aimed at UNDERSTANDING AND ADDRESSING COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN LONGTERM CHALLENGES. Selected Tools / Methods Scenarios Systems thinking COMMUNITIES SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING Mapping and challenging paradigms and mental models TRUST MAKING SENSE PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATIVE Visioning FUTURES DIVERSITY OF THOUGHT CHALLENGING MENTAL MODELS PARADIGMS ROBUST DECISION MAKING TRADE -OFFS COMMON UNDERSTANDING 8
Mining & Metals – Scenarios to 2030 Project Objectives Stimulate strategic dialogue between the public and private sectors and civil society on the future sustainability of the global mining and metals sector in economic, social and environmental terms. 9
Mining & Metals – Scenarios to 2030 Project Achievements Catalyzed new and systemic insights on the industry’s most critical sustainability challenges Created a strengthened community of interest, emerging from a safe and insightful dialogue space, through which the major challenges and opportunities, as illustrated in the scenarios, are further addressed Individual stakeholders used the learnings to support their strategic planning in order to promote the sustainability of the industry Green Trade Alliance Rebased Globalism Resource Security 10
Political and economic implications of resource scarcity – Estimates of resource demands in the year 2030 span a large range Projections range from small decreases in total demand to a near-doubling There is substantial variation in estimates of resource demand from different assessments Source: Vivid Economics for World Economic Forum 11
Political and economic implications of resource scarcity – Paradigms on Resource Scarcity Different framings of potential futures are influencing the spaces in which one seeks solutions. Paradigm 1: “Depletion, absolute scarcity and radical shifts” “Your paradigm is so intrinsic to your mental process that you are hardly aware of its existence, until you try to communicate with someone with a different paradigm. ” Paradigm 2: “Increasing costs, lock-in and economic limits” Paradigm 3: “Resource abundance, substitutability and the power of markets” Paradigm 4: - Donella Meadows “Social injustice, distribution and moral limits” 12
Greenest City Conversations Project Presentation at Planet Under Pressure conference Mar 28, 2012 John Robinson, UBC
Cross-channel Evaluation Greenest City Conversations project
Exploring Normative Worlds GEA as an example Ged Davis Co-President Global Energy Assessment
IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework GHG Emissions Industry, Energy, and Land-based Mitigation Deforestation & Afforestation (modeled on 0. 5 x 0. 5) Riahi #16 2007
Climate Discounted Energy System Costs (percent of total GDP) Security Pollution KM 17: Riahi et al, 2010
Global Pollution Control Costs (illustrative scenarios by 2030) All scenarios fulfill the pollution/health objective at the stringent level Climate Co-benefit Weak Climate KM 17: Riahi et al, 2010 Intermediate Climate Stringent Climate
Investments to Achieve High Energy Security Levels (illustrative scenarios by 2030) All scenarios fulfill the energy security objective at the stringent level Climate Co-benefit Weak Climate KM 17: Riahi et al, 2010 Intermediate Climate Stringent Climate
A (still) emerging field… ____________________ ACTOR centric Visioning and backcasting, Scenarios-to-strategy, etc. ‘Exploratory’ scenarios, Delphi method, etc. For CHANGE (actionable options) For INQUIRY (new insights) Scenarios, plus visioning and modelling with actionable options 20 Foresight studies e. g. IPCC scenarios ISSUE focus
POSTER SESSION
Vulnerability Scenarios and Development Pathways: Advancing Key Components for Comprehensive Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Science Matthias Garschagen & Joern Birkmann • To date strong focus on bio-geo-physical scenarios for climate change hazards • However scenarios for societal development, particularly in terms of the implications for vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking • This is remarkable given that socio-economic development trends at local, sub-national and global scale are decisive for effective adaptation and risk reduction strategies • Scenario development for vulnerability and adaptive capacity is helpful and needed • Integration of different dimensions and scales required • Mix of methods required • First experiences and lessons (e. g. from Vietnam) Source: Garschagen 2011, Schwab 2011 Source: Garschagen & Kraas 2010, adopted from Smit & Wandel 2006 garschagen@ehs. unu. edu | birkmann@ehs. unu. edu | +49 228 815 0289 | www. ehs. unu. edu
Multi-scale participatory scenario methods as a tool of local population empowerment: case studies in Brazilian Amazonia Aguiar APD, Folhes R, Aguiar D, Araújo, R Amazon River PAE Lago Grande SANTARÉM PA Moju Brazilian Amazonia today is a mosaic of distinct territorial units (Indigenous lands, Conservation units of integral protection and sustainable use, Settlement Projects). Are they sustainable in the long run?
Multi-scale participatory scenario methods as a tool of local population empowerment: case studies in Brazilian Amazonia Aguiar APD, Folhes R, Aguiar D, Araújo, R Community scale Territorial Unit scale (settlement) Same axis of discussion at both scales Social organization Infrastructure Land use activites Land conflicts Participation: local population, settlement leaderships, civil society and local government representatives Normative scenarios: desired and undesired visions of the future in 2020 Backcasting exercise to construct trajectories Convergence/divergence analysis between scales
Scenarios and visioning as complementary tools Regional multi-stakeholder scenarios process led by CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security program (CCAFS) Mixing qualitative and quantitative methods, we combine the development and use of scenarios in many different key contexts: • Scenarios have to continually shift their presentation, become enriched by responding to use contexts • The impacts of scenarios use processes are more defined and more easily tracked. • Scenarios become spaces for continuous shared value creation: new strategies, policies, insights, relationships and networks. J. M. Vervoort, P. J. Ericksen, J. S. Ingram, W. Foerch, M. Chaudhury, P. Thornton, P. Kristjanson
Many different use contexts Scenarios: what might happen (context) Visioning: what should happen (actors) Translation to different use contexts Uncertain future Different perspectives: different types of knowledge, experience Scenarios capture alternative futures Improve scenarios’ usefulness through quantification and media Create shared visions for regional future (3) Different perspectives: different needs, aspirations Scenarios enriched based on use contexts Back-casting Feasible through visions, scenarios to robust explore policies and pathways to strategies vision under uncertainty
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