How Deeply Does Britains Euroscepticism Run John Curtice

How Deeply Does Britain’s Euroscepticism Run? John Curtice Nat. Cen Social Research www. whatukthinks. org/eu

Should Britain ‘continue’ as an EU member or ‘withdraw’? 90 76 80 70 60 50 40 56 53 42 61 63 77 68 72 54 48 45 38 33 32 30 26 35 29 17 20 57 22 28 60 30 10 0 83 84 85 86 87 89 Continue 90 91 Withdraw 92 97 14 15

A More Nuanced Question Do you think Britain's long-term policy should be… • to leave the European Union, • to stay in the EU and try to reduce the EU's powers, • to leave things as they are, • to stay in the EU and try to increase the EU's powers, • or, to work for the formation of a single European government?

Widespread Scepticism 50 43 45 40 35 30 25 22 19 20 15 8 10 3 5 0 Leave Reduce As Is Increase Single govt

The Rise of Euroscepticism 80 70 60 50 40 30 57 55 58 46 38 36 50 52 56 50 47 52 67 51 55 65 62 65 37 20 10 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Reduce/Stop/End EU Rules 80 70 68 60 60 59 53 51 50 40 30 20 17 23 14 27 17 10 0 Migrant welfare Regulation NHS Treatment Working Hours Agree Disagree Fo. M

The Perceived Consequences of Leaving ‘Better’ No Difference ‘Worse’ Immigration 57 31 9 Unemployment 24 46 25 Economy 24 31 40 Influence 17 44 36

Perceived Economic Consequences of Stronger EU Links 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 45 43 40 33 32 22 20 35 33 20 20 13 35 17 18 8 90 91 93 94 Stronger 95 Weaker 97 14 15

Is the EU Undermining Britain’s Distinctive Identity? 50 47 45 40 35 30 30 25 20 20 15 10 5 0 Agree Neither Disagree

What Matters? Withdraw vs. Continue • Identity Undermined * • Economy If Leave * • Economy Stronger Links • Immigration If Leave • European Identity Sceptic vs. Europhile • Identity Undermined * • Immigration If Leave • Con/UKIP supporter • Economy Stronger Links • European Identity

The Importance of Economic Evaluations 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 89 84 80 68 64 60 47 31 8 Much Better Neither Withdraw Sceptic Worse 2 Much Worse

Cultural Concern Alone Insufficient % withdraw Economy If Leave Better Neither/Worse EU Undermines Identity Agree Neither/Disagree 82 35 40 3

Conclusions • Euroscepticism is both deep and wide, fed by ‘cultural concern’ (and low/weak European identity) • But it is only likely to become converted into support for leaving if it is thought the economy would be better if Britain left • To date, voters are not inclined to the view that the economy would be better

Implications • Leave need to win the economic case for exiting the EU • Remain have to persuade voters the economic benefits are worth the price of the constraints and ‘meddling’ that come from Brussels • Neither has an easy task!