HM Strategies Shipping Forum 23 January 2013 Shipping

HM Strategies /// Shipping Forum, 23 January 2013 Shipping Market Update & Ecoship Considerations Shipping Adviser Jarle Hammer 22. 01 Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 1

HM Strategies /// 18. 01 Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 2

HM Strategies /// 18. 01 Countercyclical Investments Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 3

HM Strategies ‘ 000 USD/d /// Source: Fearnleys Volatility 485% 293% 220% 260% 173% Volatility: Highest in % above Lowest 16. 01 Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 4

HM Strategies /// TIME FOR M&A and Supply Measures Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 5

HM Strategies /// Source: Clarkson Substantial Slow-Steaming Fleet Reserve Capacity Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 6

HM Strategies /// VERY STRONG & WELL EQUIPPED – ABOUT SAME PRICE AS VLCC Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 7

HM Strategies /// Source: Clarkson 18. 01 Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 8

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HM Strategies /// JACK-UP G o M SEMI’s 2 - 5, 000 ft JACK-UP NWE SEMI’s 5, 000 ft + IHS Petrodata: Rig Utilization & Rates Hammer Maritime Strategies Index 1994 = 100 January 2013 10

HM Strategies /// Source: Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 11

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HM Strategies /// Economic Performance & Growth. Economist 17. 01. 13 % change IP-12 m Infl-12 m 2. 2 1. 7 2. 9 Euro area - 3. 7 Japan S. Korea China 10. 1 India Russia Brazil Thailand Malaysia 7. 5 Indonesia 20. 1 Philippines 9. 6 Vietnam 5. 9 Hammer Maritime Strategies GDP-10 -11 1. 7 2. 2 2. 0 2. 2 1. 7 - 5. 8 - 0. 2 4. 2 2. 9 1. 4 6. 1 2. 5 1. 9 9. 2 - 0. 1 10. 6 9. 1 1. 9 6. 5 6. 4 - 1. 0 5. 8 7. 7 83. 3 3. 6 7. 0 1. 3 6. 9 4. 8 4. 3 6. 1 6. 5 2. 9 6. 9 3. 6 6. 8 5. 9 -12 USA -13 - 0. 4 - 0. 1 - 0. 7 1. 8 3. 6 2. 2 7. 7 8. 5 7. 1 5. 4 4. 3 3. 7 2. 9 1. 0 1. 2 5. 8 5. 2 4. 5 6. 3 6. 4 5. 5 6. 1 4. 9 5. 4 0. 7 3. 3 6. 5 3. 6 3. 5 4. 2 January 2013 13

HM Strategies /// Source: Fearnleys Excessive Ordering Small Demand Growth Potential Revival? Ballast reduction Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 14

HM Strategies Million tonnes oil equivalent Hammer Maritime Strategies /// Source: BP January 2013 15

HM Strategies /// N. AMERICA R-O-W W. EUROPE M. EAST JAPAN FSU Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 16

HM Strategies M. EAST OPEC /// PEAK OIL IRRELEVANT Supply is a function of Price & Technology N. AMERICA FSU N. SEA DEPLETION Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 17

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HM Strategies Million dwt /// Sources: Fearnleys & HMS Slippage 2011: 30% 2012: 40% Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 20

HM Strategies /// Million tonnes Source: Clarkson Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 21

HM Strategies /// Billion cbm Source: BP Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 22

HM Strategies /// LNG very hot after closure of nuclear power plants However, shale gas a veritable negative game changer US could well become a net gas exporter Stokhman gas field shelved ? Source: BP Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 23

HM Strategies /// Sources: Clarkson, Fearnleys, HMS MINOR BULK Roughly 1, 550 mt in 2012 Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 24

HM Strategies /// Source: Clarkson Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 25

HM Strategies /// Source: WSA 2012 11 months annualized Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 26

HM Strategies /// Million tonnes. 3 m av. China imp 2012 + 8. 6% Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 27

HM Strategies /// Forecast October 2012 2011 2012 2013 China 6. 2 2. 5 3. 1 R-O-W 6. 3 1. 7 3. 3 World 6. 2 2. 1 3. 2 Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 28

HM Strategies /// Compiled by HMS Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 29

HM Strategies Million dwt. 3 m av. Hammer Maritime Strategies /// BDI January 2013 30

HM Strategies Million dwt Hammer Maritime Strategies /// Source: Fearnleys January 2013 31

HM Strategies /// Million GT All Types Cheap Finance from Yards and Governments Eco ships ? 2012 8 m annualized Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 32

HM Strategies /// Oil Tanker Fleet Decisions & Deliveries 120 Million dwt Sources: Fearnleys, Clarkson, HMS 100 ORDERS DEMOLITION 80 EST. DEMOLITION DELIVERIES 60 HMS est EST. DELIVERIES Misc. REMOVALS 40 20 Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 0 33

HM Strategies /// HMS est Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 34

HM Strategies /// Container Fleet Decisions & Deliveries HMS est Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 35

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HM Strategies Million dwt Hammer Maritime Strategies /// Soucrces: Sources: Fearnleys & & Clarkson January 2013 37

HM Strategies /// Bunker Price & Panamax T/C 80 70 60 ‘ 000 USD/d USD/t 700 T/C 12 m Panamax 600 HVF Rdam 50 Increased Focus on Fuel Economy 40 30 800 500 400 300 20 200 10 100 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 0 Source: Fearnleys Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 38

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HM Strategies /// Containership Fuel Consumption by Size & Speed 370 Size in teu 11 K 105 Slow-steaming open for substantial cost savings Hammer Maritime Strategies ULTRA LARGE from 25 k to 17 k (370 - 105 = 265 t) x USD 625 per t = about USD 165, 000 reduction per day January 2013 40

HM Strategies /// Source: Maersk Post 50% reduction over period. Considerably smaller reduction per teu transported due to slowsteaming -5% -13% -11% -12% -3% -10% Target Hammer Maritime Strategies Target January 2013 41

HM Strategies /// ECO SHIPS – CENTRAL ISSUES Environmental benefits Less and cleaner fuel What about Company Economics ? - Eco Ship Newbuilding orders will delay market upturn - Additional costs for fuel saving measures ? - Retrofitting / New ship ? - Future bunker price ? - Vast majority of conventional vessels will decide rate levels - Lack of ability to skim future market peaks by speading up - Higher total fleet income per capital invested when using larger number of medium age vessels in fairly healthy markets Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 42

HM Strategies ‘ 000 USD Panamax R/V Costs 4, 500 n. m. Hammer Maritime Strategies /// Source: HMS January 2013 43

HM Strategies /// PANAMAX BREAK-EVEN RATES New Eco Ship 10 -yr Old Price Res. Value (300 USD/ldt) Rest life/Calc. interest Capital element Operating cost * Calculated B/E usd 27. 0 m usd 3. 6 m 25 yrs/8% ~ 7, 000 usd/d 6, 500 usd/d 13, 500 usd/d usd 13. 5 m usd 3. 6 m 15 yrs/8% ~ 4, 100 usd/d 6, 500 usd/d 10, 600 usd/d Bunker advantage 200 usd/t 600 usd/t 1, 000 usd/t ~ 900 usd/d ~ 2, 700 usd/d ~ 4, 400 usd/d Hammer Maritime Strategies (270 days at sea) Source: HMS January 2013 44

HM Strategies /// ‘ 000 USD/d Source: HMS Investment 27 m USD Bunker price & voyage rate in USD/t Hammer Maritime Strategies January 2013 45