History of the Future 11 The Recent Future

History of the Future 11: The Recent Future

Star Wars Changes Everything n More fairly tale than science fiction n Myth for a whole generation Mechanizing blitz n n n Far future, mythic past – same thing Toys Collectables Comic books Novels Computer games Return to space opera n Many ideas from 1930 s pulp

Boom in Films n Immediate Star Wars rip-offs n n Sci-Fi and Horror dominate 80 s box office n n Battlestar Galactica, etc. – few succeed ET, Close Encounters join Star Wars trilogy Futuristic action films very popular Terminator n Aliens n

Sci-Fi n Really a genre of its own n n Much more popular than “classic” SF n n TV (with its own channel) Films (mostly action) Tie-in books let alone literary approaches Enjoyable but formulaic n Appeal is predictability; not innovation

Nostalgia for the Future n Sci-Fi takes place in “alternate future” n n Props, concepts from 30 s, 40 s and 50 s Props of genre have a life of their own Rocket ships and Space combat n Aliens and Mutants n Overpopulation or drab future n Time Travel and Parallel Worlds n n As with props of mysteries or westerns

Reworking of Older Forms n n Often done in playful or revisionist way Recent revival of space opera n n n Ian Banks – baroque, sometimes serious Colin Greenland, Paul J. Mc. Auley Gene Wolfe n Literary transformation of SF and fantasy archetypes

Sharecropping n Recycling of popular worlds n n n Sequels written to many old books n n Started with Star Trek, Star Wars Written under firm direction, low royalties Asimov’s Foundation series many Clarke books New Dune sequels “Shared world” anthologies n Many writers contribute to single series

Boom in “High Fantasy” n n Lord of the Rings spawns new genre Terry Brooks is first best-selling imitator n n 1977 – The Sword of Shannara (7 follow) Many other epic trilogies follow Donaldson (Thomas Covenant – 2 trilogies) n Eddings (The Belgariad – 2 series, 10 books) n Tad Williams (Memory, Thorn & Sorrow) n n Most are crude and derivative

Convergence n SF readers and writers with n n n All involve creation of imaginary worlds n n n Horror (Steven King, Dan Simmons) Fantasy (Card, John Crowley, Gene Wolfe, Greg Bear) Fantasy seems to be gaining upper hand Harry Potter won the Hugo in 2001 Escapist thrills separating from scientific and social extrapolation n As they mostly were before 1940 s

Many Sub Genres n “Hard” science fiction n n Militaristic science fiction “Literary” science fiction (dwindling) n n Gene Wolfe Space Opera (reviving) n n Scientific focus, retains some appeal Greg Bear, Greg Egan Mostly with Scots, for some reason Alternate History (booms recently)

The Future n Social extrapolations seems to have faded In futurology as well as SF n Idea of straightforward progression faded n n Interest in science also fading n n Especially physics Dominated recently by computer technology Internet viewed as transforming social force n Also viewed as business revolution n

Consumer Electronics n “The Dreams our Stuff is Made Of” n n Ideas of futuristic technology shape real things n n n Engineers, designers grow up reading May inspire some products (videophone!) Futuristic styling is popular n n n (title of Thomas M. Disch book) Imagery is inescapable in films Influences look of devices, electronics Futuristic thrill of using?

Future in Business – late 90 s n Predictions of enormous tech growth n n n Everyone is a “visionary” Rush to try out new things n n n Business plans to sell shares Market research and analysis Computer commentators (Negroponte, etc. ) Futurists like Toffler Communications technologies Business models Hundreds of billions of dollars invested n On basis of science fiction?

A Paradox? n SF genre booms from 1930 s to 1960 s Interest in future extrapolation now fading n genre boundaries breaking down n n But since 1970 s Sci-fi ideas of future become ubiquitous n Influence SDI, technology stocks boom, etc. n We have a feeling of own world as futuristic n n Has business replaced science fiction?

n n Mostly dull, business oriented Growing world prosperity n n n Globalization of business Forward thinking, caring corporations Establishment of democracy Rosy Possibilities for Future Ideological divides fade Technology transforms world n n n Internet Nanotechnology Better jobs, more productivity

Dark Possibilities for Future n n More exciting! Killer diseases n n n Asteroid impacts Terrorism n n n Biological weapons? Nuclear war Technological threats n n n AIDS is huge world problem Nanotechnology Genetic Engineering Environmental catastrophe

What Does This Tell Us? n Are recent futures less revealing? n n The early stuff seemed much clearer Or are we just too close to it? Do our own futures always seem natural? n What will people think in 50 years time n n Does science fiction have anything to do with the future?