History of the Future 10 Apollo Beyond Space

History of the Future 10: Apollo & Beyond

Space Flight in Literature n Long history Early authors use metaphorically n We already saw Verne, Wells in 19 th Century n Also in Stapledon & Things to Come n n n Rocket established by 1930 s Space flight becomes central with Genre SF Hugo Gernsback, 1930 n Seizes imagination of readers n

The “Space Opera” n Stories of interstellar or intergalactic adventure n n Generally dealing with exciting wars Popular from 1930 s E. E. “Doc” Smith – the Skylak and Lensman series Fades somewhat by late 40 s n n n Authors seek more realistic/nuanced themes Used lightheartedly or for children Revived with Star Wars, 1977

Realistic Space Flight n n V 2 Rocket – Germany, WWII More realistic stories appear in “Golden Age” n n n Heinlein, “The Man Who Sold the Moon” n n n Heinlein, Clarke good at this Clarke “invents” geosynchronous comms satellite Moon landing by private enterprise Space as new frontier Readers learn about n n n Moon bases & Space Stations Space Suits Orbital mechanics, etc.

The Reality n Space race as extension of cold war n n n Gagarin becomes first man in space (1961) n n Soviets get first satellite (1957) First moon probe (1959) Unmanned moon landing (1966) First space station (1971) First Venus lander (1975) US response founders n n Rockets explode Political infighting

Apollo Program n Moon drive launched by Kennedy, 1961 Part of his aggressive challenge to Soviets n Direct to moon strategy – diverges from earlier ideas in search of quick results n n Apollo 11, July 1969 Caps series of earlier flights & tests n Soviet rocket keeps exploding n n Interest drops off fast War, social unrest, urban riots are distracting n Final 3 missions cancelled n

Military Industrial Complex Term coined by Eisenhower in farewell speech n Cold War gives government huge economic role n New high-tech defense industry grows up n Close ties between generals, firms, politicians n Cutting edge science and technology n n Space program is extension of in Technologies involved n Procurement and project management strategies n Companies building components n

Atlas Missiles First ICMB (mentioned previously) n New concept: “Systems Engineering” n Rapid construction of futuristic technologies n New project management techniques n Organize huge teams from different firms on “blue sky” research n n Used as “booster stage” for early US flights Including John Glenn, 1962 – First US orbit n Over long time period – descendents used today! n

“Systems” Thinking n Surged with Cold War Establishment of “think tanks” like RAND Corp n Work includes strategy, first futurology n n Elements “Game Theory” n Operations Research (use in industry) n Computer models for prediction, forecasting n n Perceptions, hype exceed achievement

Application to Broader Issues n Systems Engineering as Universal Expertise n n n Mc. Namara – takes from Ford to DOD Tries to fight war by “watching the numbers” Application to social problems, late 1960 s n n “The techniques that are going to put man on the moon are exactly the techniques that we are going to need to clean up our cities” – Hubert Humphrey (VP), 1968 Aerospace contracts, think tanks offer services n n Perceived crisis in urban areas Transportation, energy problems

Application to Environment n “World Systems Theory” n n Computer model of entire ecosystem! “Limits to Growth” report, 1972 n n Suggests crises of population, resources imminent Economic collapse within 100 years One of many later charts produced in response to the 1972 report.

Manned Space Flight in 1970 s n NASA Proposes the SF future n n Funding limited, political pressures n n n Cheap, reusable “space truck” to build space station and permanent moon base to fly to Mars We get space shuttle (years late, hugely over budget) And Sky Lab, made of Apollo leftovers Unmanned probes do best science n Viking lands on Mars in 1976

Faced with this n SF interest in realistic space flight diminishes Real space programs too big, bureaucratic n Political dimensions too obvious n Little useful results, frontier feeling lacking n n Some realistic treatments of Mars of which Man Plus is key example n Kim Stanley Robinson “Mars” Trilogy, 1990 s n n By 80 s, some authors boosting SDI Will talk about this later n Manned space flight becomes Republican issue! n