Hickory Metro Economic Perspective Prepared For Foothills APICS

“Hickory Metro Economic Perspective” Prepared For: Foothills APICS Chapter May 9, 2013 By Taylor Dellinger, GISP Western Piedmont Council of Governments

Hickory Metro Demographics

Hickory Metro Population 2000 -2010 County 2000 Census 2010 Census Growth 2000 -10 % Growth 2000 -10 Alexander 33, 603 37, 198 3, 595 10. 7 Burke 89, 148 90, 912 1, 767 2. 0 Caldwell 77, 415 83, 029 5, 321 6. 8 Catawba 141, 685 154, 358 12, 672 8. 9 Total 341, 851 365, 497 23, 646 6. 9 Source: 2000 -2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

NC Metro Percentage Population Growth by Decade, 1990 -2010 Source: 1990 -2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Source: 2000 -2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA % Age Group Population Change, 2000 -2010 Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau. Source: 2000 -2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Population by Age Group, 2000 -2010 Age Group Under 5 Years 5 to 9 Years 10 to 14 Years 15 to 19 Years 20 to 24 Years 25 to 34 Years 35 to 44 Years 45 to 54 Years 55 to 59 Years 60 to 64 Years 65 to 74 Years 75 to 84 Years 85 Years and Over Total 2000 Census 22, 057 23, 593 23, 225 21, 867 20, 547 50, 307 54, 178 48, 090 18, 934 15, 387 24, 456 14, 522 4, 688 341, 851 Source: 2000 -2010 Census, US Census Bureau. 2010 Census 21, 592 23, 005 24, 277 25, 232 19, 957 40, 946 51, 674 55, 681 24, 638 23, 606 31, 566 17, 222 6, 101 365, 497 Change 2000 -10 -465 -588 1, 052 3, 365 -590 -9, 361 -2, 504 7, 591 5, 704 8, 219 7, 110 2, 700 1, 413 23, 646 % Change 2000 -10 -2. 1 -2. 5 4. 5 15. 4 -2. 9 -18. 6 -4. 6 15. 8 30. 1 53. 4 29. 1 18. 6 30. 1 6. 9

NC MSA 25 to 34 Age Group Percent Population Change, Census 2000 to Census 2010 Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau. Source: 2000 -2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

NC MSA 60 to 64 Age Group Percent Population Change, Census 2000 to Census 2010 Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau. Source: 2000 -2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Population Change 2010 -2012

Hickory MSA Population Change 2010 -2012

Hickory Metro Population Projections 2010 -2030 County 2010 2015 2020 2030 Growth 20102030 Alexander 37, 198 36, 899 36, 351 35, 825 -1, 373 -3. 7% Burke 90, 912 88, 889 87, 632 86, 431 -4, 481 -4. 9% Caldwell 83, 029 81, 881 81, 021 80, 162 -2, 867 -3. 5% % Growth 2010 -30 Catawba 154, 358 157, 872 161, 833 169, 751 15, 393 10. 0% Total 365, 497 365, 541 366, 837 372, 169 6, 672 1. 8% Source: NC Office of Management and Budget.

Hickory Metro Employment Situation

Hickory MSA Employment, 3 rd Qtr. 2000– 2012 Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Hickory MSA Employment Distribution Services 28% Other Construction 1% 3% Hickory Metro Jobs 1990 Trade 13% 2012 US Manufacturing: 9% Manufacturing Public 51% Administration 4% Other Construction 1% 2% Manufacturing 27% Hickory Metro Jobs 2012 Services 49% Source: NC Division of Employment Security. Trade 15% Public Administration 6%

Hickory Metro Employment 2009 -2012

Hickory MSA Unemployment Rate, March 2009– March 2013 Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Percentage NC MSA Employment Change, 3 rd Quarter 2009 – 3 rd Quarter 2012 Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Hickory MSA Job Losses by Sector, 3 rd Quarter 2011 -2012 Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Hickory MSA Employment Gains by Sector, 3 rd Quarter 2011 -2012 Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Change in Total Employment, 3 rd Qtr. 2011 to 3 rd Qtr. 2012 Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Hickory Metro Wage and Poverty Trends

Hickory MSA Average Weekly Wage, 3 rd Quarter 2008 -2012 Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Poverty Rates and Median Household Income, 2009 -2011 ACS County Alexander Burke Caldwell Catawba Hickory (City) All Persons Under 18 Below All Persons Below Under 18 Median Poverty Rate Househol Rate (%) d Income 6, 897 18. 9% 2, 433 29. 2% $39, 415 16, 539 18. 8% 5, 163 26. 3% $37, 130 15, 840 19. 4% 5, 047 27. 6% $34, 520 21, 323 14. 0% 7, 683 21. 2% $43, 252 7, 817 20. 2% Source: American Community Survey, US Census Bureau. 2, 491 28. 5% $36, 082

Hickory Metro Commuting Trends

Number of Persons Who Reside in Hickory MSA, but Work Outside the Hickory MSA

Hickory Metro Housing Trends

Hickory MSA Housing Units, 1970 -2010 Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Occupied and Vacant Housing Units, 1990 -2010 Units Occupied Units Vacant Units Total Units 1990 Units % of Units 2000 Units % of Units Chg. 19902000 112, 387 92. 6 133, 966 92. 5 21, 579 19. 2 144, 504 88. 9 10, 538 7. 9 9, 031 7. 4 10, 908 7. 5 1, 877 20. 8 18, 109 11. 1 7, 201 66. 0 23, 456 19. 3 162, 613 100. 0 17, 739 12. 2 121, 418 100. 0 144, 874 100. 0 Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau. % Chg. 19902000 2010 Units % of Units Chg. 20002010 % Chg. 20002010

Hickory MSA Vacant Housing Unit by Type, 2010 Source: 2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Renter and Owner Housing Units, 1990 -2010 Units 1990 Units % of Units 2000 Units % of Units Chg. % Chg. 1990 - 19902000 Owner. Occupied 83, 952 74. 7 99, 497 74. 3 15, 545 Renter. Occupied 28, 435 25. 3 34, 469 25. 7 Occupied Units 112, 387 100. 0 133, 966 Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau. 2010 Units % of Units Chg. 20002010 % Chg. 20002010 18. 5 103, 966 71. 9 4, 469 4. 5 6, 034 21. 2 40, 538 28. 1 6, 069 17. 6 100. 0 21, 579 19. 2 144, 504 100. 0 10, 538 7. 9

Hickory MSA Single-Family (Site-Built) Permits, 2000 -2012

Hickory MSA Foreclosure Cases, 2000 -2012 Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts.

Hickory Metro Educational Attainment

NC MSA Educational Attainment Comparison, 2011 % High School Degree or Higher Ranking (1=Highest %) % Bachelor' s Degree or Higher Ranking (1=Highest %) Asheville 87. 8 4 29. 9 4 Burlington 80. 0 13 19. 7 10 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord 87. 6 5 33. 3 3 Durham 87. 3 6 41. 9 1 Fayetteville 88. 6 3 20. 5 9 Goldsboro 80. 1 12 14. 4 10 Greensboro-High Point 84. 2 9 27. 0 7 Greenville 83. 9 10 29. 6 5 Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir 79. 0 14 18. 2 11 Jacksonville 90. 3 1 17. 5 12 Raleigh-Cary 88. 7 2 41. 3 2 Rocky Mount 81. 7 11 16. 3 13 Wilmington 87. 2 7 28. 7 6 Winston-Salem 85. 5 8 26. 9 8 MSA Source: American Community Survey, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Economic Outlook? A report IHS Global Insight for the US Conference of Mayors indicates that: 1) 22, 400 Jobs have been lost since 2 nd Quarter 2006 (13. 6%) 2) Unemployment should remain over 11% through 2013 3) It will be beyond 2021 before the region returns to the 2006 employment level 4) The Hickory MSA is one of three MSAs in the Southeast (along with Rocky Mount and Dalton, GA) that will take more than 10 years to recover from job losses suffered in the current recession 5) The analysis does not say how long it will take to recover from the 2000 Employment job peak of 186, 000 workers.

Question: How does the Hickory MSA Economic Outlook and 2010 Census data impact development in the region over the next decade?