HFC baseline calculation and Phase Down Schedules for

HFC baseline calculation and Phase Down Schedules for HFC’s IEMS BARIS UCANER National Consultant 3. 12. 2020

Forecast Future Projection • Based on information provided from various stakeholders and customs statistics. • To forecast the future especially producer stakeholders near future forecast, midterm strategies and IMF Country growth rate expectation mainly usefuly. These various of data shape up forecasting model for production and servicing. • Based on detail interviews with the Automotive and A/C producers, these industries projections become almost certain due to R 32 and R 1234 yf implementations. Which has been ongoing globally as well. When creating A/C and MAC sectors servicing forecast modeling, this foreseen new generation refrigerants impact taken in to consideration by the changing of the refrigerant bank. • Industrial refrigeration applications seems as highly motivated to use R 404 A globally even though most of them are aware about low GWP or Natural solutions. Mainly refrigeration sector will continue to grow up on R 404 A as ODS alternative.

Forecast Future Projection Finally with the all collected data, One of the main output of the Survey report was analysis of current consumption and forecasts of future use amount with the GWP weighted multipliers. GWP Weighted ODS Alternative (C 02 ton Eq. ) 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Basically you could able to the most valued HFC’s by their weighted consumptions. R 452 A R 450 A R-507 A R 407 F R 410 A R 407 C Others R-23 * R 32 HFC-125 HFC 152 a HFC 245 fa HFC 365 mfc/HFC 227 ea*** HFC-227 ea HFC 134 a R 404 A SF 6

Determine the Foreseen Base Line The Kigali Amendment specifies how to calculate the baseline for HFC consumption and production, According to the Country Group Average consumption of the years and %65 of HCFC Baseline will be base line for Kigali Amendment.

Place Suited HFC Phase-Down Schedule Current figures and foreseen consumption by the GWP Co 2 eq. weighted based shown on the graph. 40000000, 00 35000000, 00 30000000, 00 25000000, 00 20000000, 00 15000000, 00 10000000, 00 7. 27. 1905 7. 26. 1905 7. 25. 1905 7. 24. 1905 7. 23. 1905 7. 22. 1905 7. 21. 1905 7. 20. 1905 7. 18. 1905 7. 16. 1905 7. 15. 1905 7. 14. 1905 7. 13. 1905 7. 12. 1905 7. 11. 1905 7. 10. 1905 0, 00 7. 9. 1905 5000000, 00 7. 8. 1905 Baseline will be; Average consumption of the 20202021 -2022 and %65 of HCFC Baseline will be base line for Kigali Amendment.

Place Suited HFC Phase-Down Schedule 40000000, 00 35000000, 00 30000000, 00 25000000, 00 20000000, 00 15000000, 00 10000 Due to Turkey early ODS Phaseout Schedule applied, current base line will be larger then real market consumption. 7. 27. 1905 7. 26. 1905 7. 25. 1905 7. 24. 1905 7. 23. 1905 7. 22. 1905 7. 21. 1905 7. 20. 1905 7. 18. 1905 7. 16. 1905 7. 15. 1905 7. 14. 1905 7. 13. 1905 7. 12. 1905 7. 11. 1905 7. 10. 1905 0, 00 7. 9. 1905 5000000, 00 7. 8. 1905 Due to 2020 -2021 -2022 average consumption will use and 2024 will be freeze year so 2023 most probably face with a stockpile action. Then market need to be normalized. TURKEY ODS (HCFC) Phase Out Klorodiflorometan HCFC-22 HCFC 142 B / R-22 karışımı 1, 1 -Dikloro-1 -floretan HCFC-141 b 5000 Diklortrifloretan HCFC-123 Klortetrafloretan HCFC-124 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Determine Earlier HFC Phase-Down Schedule 30000000, 00 25000000, 00 20000000, 00 15000000, 00 10000000, 00 7. 27. 1905 7. 26. 1905 7. 25. 1905 7. 24. 1905 7. 23. 1905 7. 22. 1905 7. 21. 1905 7. 20. 1905 7. 18. 1905 7. 16. 1905 7. 15. 1905 7. 14. 1905 7. 13. 1905 7. 12. 1905 0, 00 7. 11. 1905 5000000, 00 7. 10. 1905 Refrigerators and freezers for commercial use that contain hydrofluorocarbons - starting from [1 January 2023] with Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 2 500 or more and from [1 January 2027] with Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 150 or more, 35000000, 00 7. 9. 1905 Placing on the market of the following products and equipment's plan to prohibited with the following years. 40000000, 00 7. 8. 1905 To suit a tight phase down schedule prohibitions of placing on the market use is critically important.

Determine Earlier HFC Phase-Down Schedule 40000000, 00 35000000, 00 30000000, 00 25000000, 00 20000000, 00 15000000, 00 10000000, 00 7. 27. 1905 7. 26. 1905 7. 25. 1905 7. 24. 1905 7. 23. 1905 7. 22. 1905 7. 21. 1905 7. 20. 1905 7. 18. 1905 7. 16. 1905 7. 15. 1905 7. 14. 1905 7. 13. 1905 7. 12. 1905 7. 11. 1905 7. 10. 1905 0, 00 7. 9. 1905 5000000, 00 7. 8. 1905 Prohibitions of placing on the market, estimate to dissociate the direction of the consumption in a positively way. During the information provided from various stakeholders, exercised that without prohibitions adopting of the new generation Low-GWP and HFC free Technologies in the market will postpone until quota limits.

Determine Earlier HFC Phase-Down Schedule 40000000, 00 35000000, 00 30000000, 00 25000000, 00 20000000, 00 15000000, 00 10000000, 00 5000000, 00 19 05 7. 10. 1 90 5 7. 11. 1 90 5 7. 12. 1 90 5 7. 13. 1 90 5 7. 14. 1 90 5 7. 15. 1 90 5 7. 16. 1 90 5 7. 18. 1 90 5 7. 19. 1 90 5 7. 20. 1 90 5 7. 21. 1 90 5 7. 22. 1 90 5 7. 23. 1 90 5 7. 24. 1 90 5 7. 25. 1 90 5 7. 26. 1 90 5 7. 27. 1 90 5 9. 7. 8. 19 05 0, 00 7. If only quota limits the market consumption, thus cause sudden huge price increases. That could be trigger the illegal refrigeration trade as well.

HFC baseline calculation and Phase Down Schedules for HFC’s