Helsinki University of Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Professor
Helsinki University of Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Professor Ahti Salo’s research group Decision modeling and foresight methodologies Graduate School Seminar in University of Jyväskylä 27. 5. 2009 Juuso Liesiö and Ahti Salo 1
Helsinki University of Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Incomplete information multi-attribute value models (Juuso Liesiö, Antti Punkka) n Methods for eliciting and synthesizing incomplete information – Alternatives’ achievement levels, decision makers’ preferences – Particular emphasis on the modelling of incomplete ordinal information n Decision aiding concepts and support tools – Dominance structures and decision rules – Guidance for focusing preference elicitation efforts – RICH Decisions, PRIME Decisions in Decisionarium n Several application areas ➔ Raimo’s group 2
Helsinki University of Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Portfolio decision analysis (Juuso Liesiö, Ville Brummer, Jussi Kangaspunta, Janne Kettunen, Pekka Mild, Antti Punkka, Antti Toppila) n Optimal allocation of resources to investment opportunities – – – n ‘Lumpy’ go/no-go investment opportunities (projects, actions) Uncertainties, multiple criteria, constraints, project interactions, risk preferences Non-linear impacts, long planning horizons, dynamic behaviours Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM), Contingent Portfolio Programming (CPP) RPM-Decisions software (www. rpm. tkk. fi) Applications – – – Priority-setting in research, technology and innovation management Development of road maintenance plans Cost-effectiveness analysis of weapon system portfolios Capital investment planning in electricity generation Optimal harvesting of forest stands 3
Helsinki University of Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Ratio-based efficiency analysis (Antti Punkka, Matti Ollila, Antti Silvast) n New performance measures for ratio-based comparisons – – n ‘Units of analysis’ with several inputs and outputs Subjective preferences about the relative values of input and outputs Comparisons based on dominance structures and possible rankings Guidance for resource allocation decisions Case studies – Comparison of the efficiencies of Departments at TKK – Relationships between funding channels and research productivity at Finnish universities (for the Ministry of Education) 4
Helsinki University of Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Foresight methodologies (Juuso Liesiö, Ville Brummer, Totti Könnölä, Antti Toppila, Eeva Vilkkumaa) n Methodologies for participatory priority-setting processes – – n Dozens or hundreds of stakeholders engaged through the Internet Multi-criteria evaluation of submissions, RPM analysis, facilitated workshops Methodological support multi-stakeholder / multi-level decision processes Collaboration with Strategic Centres of Excellence in Science, Technology and Innovation (SHOK) Case studies – Strategic innovation plans at the regional level (with Miika Kajanus, Savonia) – Strategic Research Agendas at the national level (forestry, packaging) – EU and the State of the World (with Totti Könnölä, JRC/IPTS) 5
- Slides: 5