Heavy metal pollution assessment within EMEP Oleg Travnikov

Heavy metal pollution assessment within EMEP Oleg Travnikov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

EMEP activities on heavy metals in 2017 2016/2017 workplan (ECE/EB. AIR/133/Add. 1) ü Monitoring of heavy metals within EMEP ü Review and improvement of HM emissions data for modelling ü Model assessment of HM transboundary pollution in EMEP region ü Global-scale modelling to assess contribution of Hg intercontinental transport ü Assessment of ecosystem-specific pollution by HMs for the effect community ü Country-scale pollution assessment – Case studies on HM pollution ü Transition of operational modelling to the new EMEP grid ü Preparation of the GLEMOS model for open-source distribution ü Scientific co-operation on improvement of model assessment quality ü Co-operation with subsidiary bodies, international organizations and programmes (WGE, UN Environment, AMAP, HELCOM) Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Monitoring of heavy metals Measurements of heavy metals within EMEP and WGE Assessment Report (2016) 100 6 80 3 mg/kg dw 2010 2005 2000 Pb air concentration 100 0 -5 cm 2000 40 1995 0 60 1995 Pb 9 FH Cd Pb in soil (Sweden) Pb in mosses 1990 Hg Conc. in mosses, mg/kg HMs in air concentration 12 80 60 40 5 -20 cm 100 80 60 40 1980 1990 2000 2010 IM sites: More close co-operation between EMEP and. ICPWGE is needed to evaluate dynamics of heavy metal pollution. Aneboda in Europe Gårdsjön Kindla Gammtratten Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Further model development Transition to the new EMEP grid Activities on implementation of the new grid: Old and. EMEP newdomain EMEP domains • Evaluation Preparation Adaptation Model Pilot simulations testing vs. of offor the measurements input of Hg HM Cd data and re-suspension andevaluation on. Pbthe and with new grid (meteorology, scheme against anthropogenic analysis measurements for of deviations theand newemissions, secondary grid sources etc. ) New EMEP domain Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Model development Pilot simulations of Pb and Cd Simulations of HM transport from anthropogenic sources Pb deposition (2014) 1. 0 Foreign (old grid) 2 Average deposition, kg/km /y Old grid 0. 8 Domestic (old grid) New Foreign grid (new grid) Domestic (new grid) 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 Bu lg ar Po ia l Bo S and sn lov a C ia& kia ze H e ch r _R zeg ep. u Sl blic ov en ia Ita G er ly m an Au y st M ria o Sw na itz co M erla ac nd ed on i Li Se a ec rb ht i en a st e C in ro a H tia u Lu ng xe ar m y bo Be urg M lgi on um te N ne et he gro rla n Be ds la Li rus th ua ni a 0. 0 Pilot simulations demonstrate good succession between the old and new grids for assessment of transboundary transport Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Model development Pilot simulations of Pb and Cd Evaluation model simulations with all sources (anthrop. and secondary) Cd air concentration (2014) Evaluation vs. measurements Old grid New grid Correlation Bias, % Old grid New grid 0. 52 0. 59 2 -8 Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Model development Wind re-suspension of heavy metals Annual mean re-suspension flux of Cd (2014) Old grid New grid Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Model development Wind re-suspension of heavy metals Land cover data: Barren lands Old grid (EMEP LC data) New grid (MODIS LC data) Harmonization of the land cover data is required within the Convention to avoid inconsistencies in data products Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Co-operation with national experts Country-scale assessment: Poland Case studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries Objective: Evaluation of pollution levels in a country with fine spatial resolution involving variety of national data Cd air concentration in Poland Current activities (Poland): • Model assessment of Cd pollution levels (0. 1°× 0. 1°) • Analysis of transition from rough to fine resolution • Detailed evaluation against observations and analysis of deviations • Initial study of urban pollution based on measurements and modelling TFMM meeting, Prague, Czech Republic, May 2017 Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Jan Nov Dec Oct Aug Sep Jul May Jun Mar Apr Feb 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0. 0 Measurements 0. 3 0. 0 Oct Nov Dec Sep Jul 0. 6 Aug Sep PL 0505 Jul 0. 9 Aug May Jun 0. 0 May Jun 0. 1 Mar Apr 0. 2 Mar Apr Cd air concentration in Poland Air concentration, ng/m 3 0. 4 Feb DE 7 Jan Nov Dec Oct Aug Sep Jul May Jun Mar Apr 0. 3 Jan CZ 3 Air concentration, ng/m 3 Jan Feb Air concentration, ng/m 3 0. 4 Feb Air concentration, ng/m 3 Co-operation with national experts Evaluation vs. observations 0. 3 PL 005 0. 2 0. 1 0. 0 Modelling Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Co-operation with national experts Analysis of model-measurement deviations Seasonal variation of anthropogenic emissions Seasonal variation of emissions (TNO expert estimates) Contribution of major sectors to Cd emissions in Poland 40 Emissions, tonnes/year 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 30 20 60% 18% 10 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 0 Jan Normalized emissions 2. 0 Reporting 2017 2014 Industrial emissions (B) Residential combustion (C) Others Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Co-operation with national experts Analysis of model-measurement deviations Model experiments with emission scenarios 3. 0 Cd air concentration 0. 9 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun x 5 Feb 2. 0 Jan 0. 0 May 0. 3 Apr 3. 0 0. 6 Mar Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 0. 0 Air concentration, ng/m 1. 0 Modified Cd emissions in Poland Measurements 1. 0 Industrial Residential Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Modellingin(original) Probably, current emissions of Cd from residential combustion Poland 0. 0 are significantly underestimated Modelling (modified) Jan Emissions, tonnes/month PL 0505 3 2. 0 Jan Emissions, tonnes/month Reported Cd emissions in Poland Others Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Review of HM emission data for modeling Joint CEIP/MSC-E Technical Report Recommendations: • Quality of gridded emission data (including completeness of reported data and quality of expert estimates used for gap filling) is among the first priority parameters. • Other parameters with the highest priority include chemical composition of emissions (for Hg). • Lower priority parameter, which is still important for Hg, is global emissions inventory. • Predominantly airborne substances (Pb, Cd) can be more affected by temporal variation of emissions and vertical distribution of emission sources. Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Co-operation with national experts Support of national modelling in Italy Simulations of second priority metals (As, Ni, Cr, Cu, Zn, Se) Air concentration of HMs (2015) As Evaluation vs. measurements 0. 5 0. 4 Bias = -17% Rcorr = 0. 8 3 Modelled, ng/m Ni Cr Zn 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0. 0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 3 Observed, ng/m Cu Se Evaluation statistics Relative Bias Correlation * The study was funded by ENEA (Italy) ± 20% 0. 6 – 0. 8 Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Co-operation with national experts GLEMOS distribution as open-source Scheme of GLEMOS modules Distribution set: • GLEMOS source code (FORTRAN 95) • A set of control scripts for compilation and running the model (c-shell) • A set of utilities for pre-processing input data and post-processing output results • A set of input data for test simulations • Technical documentation A pilot version of the GLEMOS open-source set was delivered to national experts from Aarhus University, Denmark (Moscow, August 2017) Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Co-operation with international organizations Global Mercury Assessment 2018 Co-operation with UN Environment and Minamata Convention Main components: Global Hg emissions in 2015 • Updated global Hg emissions inventory for 2015 Characteristics: § Global coverage § Fine spatial resolution (0. 1°× 0. 1°) § Sectoral composition (4 groups of sectors) • Reviewed by countries Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Co-operation with international organizations Global Mercury Assessment 2018 Co-operation with UN Environment and Minamata Convention Main components: Hg measurements worldwide • Updated global Hg emissions inventory for 2015 • Overview of Hg measurements in the global atmosphere EMEP network Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Co-operation with international organizations Global Mercury Assessment 2018 Co-operation with UN Environment and Minamata Convention Main components: Modelling groups: • Updated global Hg emissions inventory for 2015 Model Institution GLEMOS EMEP/MSC-E • Overview of Hg measurements in the global atmosphere GEM-MACH-Hg Environment Canada (Canada) • Model assessment of Hg transport and fate (coordinated by EMEP/MSC-E) GEOS-Chem MIT (USA) ECHMERIT CNR-IIA (Italy) - Review of recent in • Hg releases to themodelling aquatic results environment HYSPLIT NOAA (USA) • * MSC-E Hg levels and trends in human contributionsimulations to GMA 2018 with is funded -populations Multi-model the by UN and biota Environment/AMAP CMAQ-Hg HZG (Germany) CMAQ-Hg Lamar Univ. (USA) the literature updated Hg emissions (2015) Environment Canada Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Co-operation with international organizations Assessment of Hg adverse effects Co-operation with WGE/CCE and Alterra on critical load exeedancies in Northern Hemisphere (preliminary results) Hg critical loads for terrestrial ecosystems Hg deposition to forests (2010) Accumulated exceedance of Hg critical loads Europe Results of the study can be discussed within the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201

Proposals for workplan 2018 -2019 (science part, in accordance with recommendations of PRG) 1. Country-scale assessment of HM pollution (Case Studies) § Assessment of HM pollution using detailed national emission and monitoring data for Poland (Cd), Germany (Hg), United Kingdom (Pb, Cd) § Analysis of factors affecting quality of HM pollution modeling with fine spatial resolution § Evaluation of pollution levels in high-emission and high-impact (e. g. urban) areas using data fusion approaches 2. Evaluation of multi-compartment intercontinental transport of Hg § Contribution to UNEP Global Mercury Assessment 2018 § Analysis of the key factors affecting Hg accumulation in and exchange between the environmental media § Evaluation of secondary emissions of Hg and their contribution to pollution of the EMEP countries Joint EMEP SB/WGE meeting, Geneva, 201