Health Impacts of Climate Variability and Change Peter

Health Impacts of Climate Variability and Change Peter Berry Ph. D. Climate Change and Health Division Safe Environments Directorate Health Canada Cari. COF 2016 Wet/Hurricane Seasonal Forecast Training Workshop Roseau, Dominica May, 2016

Adaptation to Protect Health 2

Outline • How the Climate is Changing • Risks to Health • Adaptation to Reduce Risks to Health • What Health Canada is Doing 3

How the Climate is Changing 4

Evidence of Climate Change - “Warming is unequivocal” Global Land Ocean Temperature Anomalies, January - December (Annual anomalies relative to 20 th century) 2015 was the hottest year on record NOAA, 2016 5

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Projected Global Average Surface Temperature Change (IPCC, 2013) 7

Risks to Health 8

Health Impacts from Climate Variability and Change Source: Smith et al. , 2014. 9

Growing Knowledge of Health Impacts • An Assessment of the Economic and Social Impacts of Climate Change on the Health Sector in the Caribbean (2013) • WHO Climate and Health Country Profiles (2015) • Canada in a Changing Climate (2014) • Climate Change, Health and Equity (2015) • Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis (2014) • Collaborative Change – A Communication Framework for Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security (2010) • WMO - Climate Services for Health (In Press) 10

Future Global Health Impacts from Climate Change Until mid-century, projected climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating health problems that already exist (very high confidence). Throughout the 21 st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases in ill -health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low income, as compared to a baseline without climate change (high confidence). (IPCC, 2014) https: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_ Erika#Dominica Courtesy: Muhammad Mahdi Karim / http: //www. dominicavibes. dm/news-194444 11

Future Global Health Impacts from Climate Change Heat waves and forest fires Very high confidence Reduced labour productivity High confidence Increased under-nutrition Very high confidence Food borne diseases Very high confidence Water-borne diseases Very high confidence Vector-borne diseases Medium confidence 12

Future Global Health Impacts from Climate Change (Smith et al. , 2014) Climate change is expected to cause an additional 250, 000 deaths globally per year by 2030 (WHO, 2015) 13

Climate Change Impacts on Food Springmann et al. , 2016 14

Heat Impacts on Labour Productivity Kjellstrom et al. , 2016 15

Drought Impacts • Droughts can lead to and increase in water borne pathogens and water contamination leading to gastroenteritis • Droughts can facilitate spread of certain vectorborne diseases and decreased food availability • Droughts can also impacts air quality through: • Increases in fine particle matter, allergen and dust concentrations • Increases in NO 2 concentrations --- silo-filler’s disease • Increases in forest fires 16

Disaster Trend in Canada Disaster Frequency in Canada 250 200 Number of Disasters Human Induced Geophysical 150 Winter Storm Flooding 100 Extreme Heat 50 0 1900 -09 1910 -19 1920 -29 1930 -39 1940 -49 1950 -59 1960 -69 1970 -79 1980 -89 1990 -99 2000 -09 2010 -2019 17

Historic Health Gains at Risk Over the last 55 years, death rates in children under 5 years of age has decreased from 214 per 1000 live births to 59. Over the same time, life expectancy has increased from 47 years to 69 years. 18

Adaptation to Protect Health 19

Impacts on Health Programs Food Safety Seniors’ Health Sustainable Development Health care system capacity Infectious Disease Management Adaptation Mental Health 20 Impacts Mitigation Health of Northern Populations Travel Medicine Air and Water Quality Children’s Environmental Health Occupational Health Emergency Preparedness

Toward Health Adaptation Action Groundwork Assessments Recognition Increased awareness Adaptation research Conceptual tools Stakeholder networking Legislation Departmental development Public outreach Surveillance/monitoring Infrastructure/technology Policy recommendations Program evaluations Financial support Medical interventions Lesnikowski, et al. , 2013 21

What Does This Mean on the Ground? EM Action With and Without “Adaptation” EM Action EM + Adaptation Hazard Risk Vulnerability Assessment HRVA integrating climate change + CC assessments Disaster mitigation informed by CC drivers (e. g, UHI) Disaster planning Disaster plans – informed by CC (eg. , simultaneous events) Table top exercises TTX with CC scenario Surveillance Monitoring new health risks Response and recovery Activate surge capacity Increasing planning capacity Partners with CC knowledge, staff aware of CC risks

Protecting Manitobans from Wildland Fire Outline Smoke Hazards The Office of Disaster Management (ODM) within the Manitoba Department of Health is reducing health risks from wildland fires by using a suite of tools to forecast, monitor and communicate risks from wildland fire smoke to partners and the public. 23 23

Health User-Needs for Climate and Weather Information • The development of health emergency and disaster risk management capacities for managing the risks to health from climate and other extreme events. • Monitoring and evaluation of the appropriate, effective, and cost-effective use of climate information for health decisions • Research and forecasting of health impacts associated with climate variability and change • Development and deployment of Health - Early Warning Systems (Health-EWS) whereby health professionals access pertinent weather and climate related health info • Collaboration with the climate community WHO, 2015 24

What Health Canada is Doing 25

Climate Change and Health Adaptation of First Nations and Inuit • Funded 95 community-led projects with linkages between traditional knowledge frameworks and academic sciences • Projects engaged communities directly: • changing distribution of animal and plant resources • the need for energy efficient housing; sustainable homes; • precarious ice conditions; safety of sea ice; • access to food, preparation and distribution of food, food sharing • Communities developed further communications approaches, adaptation plans and adaptation actions Brown, 2015 26

Developing Heat Resilient Communities and Individuals • Since 2007 Health Canada has improved Canadian resiliency to heat in the following ways: » Delivering heat-health messaging to support personal adaptation » Conducting research into heat-health science to address knowledge gaps » Disseminating information for health care workers through clinical training » Expanding Heat Alert and Response Systems across Canada • In 2011 the heat resiliency project provided: » Pilot Heat Alert Response Systems in four Canadian communities (Fredericton, Winnipeg, Windsor, Melita) » A Best Practices Guidebook on Heat Alert and Response Systems » Guidelines for Health Care Workers regarding Extreme Heat Events 27

Health Facility Climate Change Resiliency http: //www. eenews. net/assets/2014/12/15/document_pm_02. pdf Primary Prevention: Enhancing Health Care Resiliency for a Changing Climate (US) Health Care Facility Climate Change Resiliency Toolkit (Canada) Strengthening the resilience of health systems would both save lives now, and protect populations from much of the potential health impacts of climate change at least until the middle of the coming century (WHO, 2015). www. greenhealthcare. ca/climateresilienthealthcare/ 28

Reducing GHGs and Health Burdens WHO, 2015 29

THANK YOU For further information: Peter Berry Peter. Berry@hc-sc. gc. ca http: //www. hc-sc. gc. ca/ewh-semt/climat/index-eng. php 30