Headquarters U S Air Force Integrity Service Excellence

Headquarters U. S. Air Force Integrity - Service - Excellence USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Challenges and Strengths Air Force Deputy Director of Weather 28 February 2011 1

Overview n Tropical Cyclone Support n Challenges and Priorities n Strengths for the Future n Community Teamwork AFW Focused on Supporting the Joint Warfighters Integrity - Service - Excellence 2

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Thank You for Your Tremendous Efforts! n Partnerships n NHC – Great support for Do. D operations in CONUS & GOM / Caribbean n JTWC (USAF/Navy) – 51 years supporting Pacific Ops & Nations NHC, CPHC, JTWC Cooperation – ATCF, Fixes, Personnel & Tech Exchange n NOAA: NWS, NESDIS, OAR – TC Fixes, Training, Funding Advocacy n JTWC Integrity - Service - Excellence

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support The Warfighter Need n Cyclones are a continuing threat to air, ground and naval operations n Coordinated and concentrated effort necessary to meet ops needs n Increased operating space for Joint and Coalition Forces near cyclones n Improved operational planning for disaster response / force protection 2010 TROPICAL CYCLONES Integrity - Service - Excellence

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support JTWC Challenges and Operational Priorities Progress thus far … 35+ years of focused R&D and T 2 WPAC Track Error WPAC Intensity Error Significant gains since 1999 42% improvement at 72 Hours Continues to be a Challenge We must work this by 2015 Integrity - Service - Excellence

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support JTWC Challenges and Operational Priorities n Top priority is intensity/structure … we need to improve: n Cyclone intensity and rapid intensification guidance n Specification of cyclone structure (wind strength and distribution) n Satellite-based intensity/structure estimates – including microwave n Tropical Cyclone genesis determination n Continue to enhance forecaster tools We Need Continued Support from the Research Community Integrity - Service - Excellence

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Strengths Now and for the Future n Test and transition mature research to operations n Data (fixes, tracks, models) available for research n USAF Mark IVB n X-Band Upgrade adds EOS capability (Aqua & Terra) n Global Geostationary Coverage n Real-time Polar Imagery METEOSAT Kapaun AB Germany Lajes Field Azores Met. Op FENG YUN MTSAT GOES Elmendorf AFB Alaska Manas AB Kyrgyzstan Kadena AB Okinawa Al Udeid AB Qatar Terra Hickam AFB Hawaii Andersen AFB Guam NOAA DMSP Aqua Integrity - Service - Excellence

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Strengths Now and for the Future n n Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) System n Vital for JTWC ops n Access and display of data via single tool optimizes TDOs time in hightempo operations Hurricane Hunters – WC 130 J n AFRC environmental recon mission corrects/validates satellite interrogation techniques Integrity - Service - Excellence

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Strengths Now and for the Future n AFWA is currently running UKMO UM: n Uses 4 DVAR initialization fields from UKMO 25 km horiz. res. (future ~17 km), 70 vert. levels n 4 x/day to 240 hrs (future 384 hrs), 3 hr increment n UM with Satellite & Spherics Overlay n Future – UM global ensemble (~50 km) to add to AFWA’s global ensemble product suite n UM provides an additional asset for AFW forecasters supporting AF/Army global operations Integrity - Service - Excellence

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Strengths Now and for the Future n AFWA’s future mesoscale ensemble UM & NAEFS members used for initial and lateral boundary conditions n ~20 km resolution, 2 x/day to 144 hours n “Global” Coverage n N. Hemisphere & Tropical stripe initially n S. Hemisphere added later n n Tropical ensemble domain… …supports AF/Army regional operations n …provides an added, extended-range modeling tool for tropical storm forecasters n Integrity - Service - Excellence

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Community Teamwork Operations guiding research decisions n Communications and interoperability n National and international collaboration n Knowledge Sharing & Data exchange n Space-based sensing n Numerical Weather Prediction n ITOP/TCS-10 (WC-130 J, DOTSTAR) n JTWC active participation n Taiwan Central Weather Bureau DOTSTAR Aircraft Dropsonde Data during Super Typhoon Megi Integrity - Service - Excellence

Bottom Line n Tropical cyclone reconnaissance and warning capability critical to warfighters… important to operations and saving lives! Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve analysis and forecast capability… we need significant improvement to intensity forecasts by 2015!! n This is a TEAM SPORT … Thanks to everyone for the great work! n Integrity - Service - Excellence

Questions? AFW…Supporting Joint Warfighters… 24 x 7! Integrity - Service - Excellence