Headquarters U S Air Force Fly Fight Win

Headquarters U. S. Air Force Fly – Fight – Win Space Weather Workshop 2010 AF/A 3 O-W Col Mark Zettlemoyer 1

Way Ahead • Preparing for solar max … and beyond • OFCM, NOAA, NASA, Do. D, and other National Partners working to determine way forward to support national space wx needs and SSA … CSESMO and other efforts • Increased investment in ground-based sensor, modeling and exploitation capabilities Working with National Partners to support National Space I n t e Wx g r i t yneeds - S e r v i c– e - TEAM E x c e l l e n. BALL! ce 2

Overview n Space-Based Collections Modernization n Ground-Based Collections Modernization n Modeling Efforts n Other Partnerships National Partners working to provide timely & actionable space weather support for the warfighters and the Nation Integrity - Service - Excellence 3

AF Space Weather Mission Provide mission-tailored analyses and forecasts of the solar environment and warnings for mission limiting space weather events to Department of Defense warfighters and decision makers COLLECT ANALYZE & PREDICT TAILOR and INTEGRATE Solar Wind Magnetosphere Electromagnetic Radiation Energetic Charged Particles Integrity - Service - Excellence Ionosphere

Space Weather Space-Based Sensing Defense Meteorological Satellite Defense Support Program (DMSP) – particles/fields (DSP) - particles Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) - particles Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) – solar wind Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES) – X-ray, particles and fields Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) - solar wind/radiation Integrity - Service - Excellence 5

Space-Based Sensor Options Exploit Current Capabilities • GOES, GPS, and other satellites • C/NOFS, SDO and COSMIC • Non-traditional sources? Future Options • • SEM-N? COSMIC-II? DSCOVR? SSAEM Radiation Belt Storm Probe AMPERE Do. D continuity mission or DMSP follow-on Advocacy and Partnering • Need partnerships to collect from the space domain! • CSESMO … proposed national space-based sensing architecture Integrity - Service - Excellence 6

Space Weather Ground-Based Sensing AF and other agencies collect space weather data from groundbased sensors n Sensors include SOON, RSTN, DISS, NEXION, USGS Magnetometer, SCINDA, TEC, and others n Data from many government & non-government sources … Data partnerships are crucial HQ AFWA 2 WS (Space Flight) Det 2, Sag Hill San Vito Det 4, Holloman SOON Det 5, Palehua Det 1, Learmonth DISS RSTN Integrity - Service - Excellence 7

SCINTILLATION NETWORK DECISION AID (SCINDA) A regional nowcasting system to support users of space-based communication and navigation systems § Ground-based sensor network § § § Passive UHF / L-band / GPS scintillation receivers Measures scintillation intensity, eastward drift velocity, and TEC Automated real-time data retrieval via internet Data supports SATCOM users § In theater and reach back support Future work § § C/NOFS and its follow-on (SSAEM) Multi-frequency GPS error work Real-time to 2 -Hr Forecasts Integrity - Service - Excellence Partners: AFRL, SMC 8

SCINDA Locations Taipei Bahrain Roatan Qatar Ascension Island Calcutta Guam Christmas Island Abidjan Addis Ababa Bogota Sao Luis Ancon Kampala Tirunelveli Manila Nairobi Diego Garcia Antofagasta Do. D Backbone Do. S Augmentation* Singapore Cuiaba Dourados AFRL research sites Do. S Potential sites* 9 Integrity - Service - Excellence Kwajalein

Next Generation Ionosonde NEXION IONOSPHERE n Replacement for Digital Ionospheric Sounding System (DISS) n Ionospheric data feeds AFWA’s ionospheric model n Generates products critical to space situational awareness n Advantages n Reduced footprint -- 5 acres for DISS/1 acre for NEXION n Characterizes ionosphere over 1000 km radius n Improved spatial resolution n Modernized network and remote sustainment functions n NEXION network will consist of at least 30 sites n 2 sites currently operational n Install 3 sites per year 4 Rx Antennas Tx Antenna DPS-4 D Processor 98’ Partners: UMass - Lowell, SMC AFWA SWAFS GAIM AFWA Space Weather Flight NIPRNet Integrity - Service - Excellence Comm Users

NEXION Siting Strategy #6 #3 #5 #1 #4 #2 #7 Looking for partnerships to share ionospheric data! 11 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Improved Optical Observations SOON vs ISOON 08 Apr 2010 SOON H 14: 29 UT Integrity - Service - Excellence Partners: AFRL, SMC ISOON 12

USAF Cooperation with Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) GONG Upgrading to provide H-alpha capability to USAF… data products every minute Integrity - Service - Excellence 13

GONG Development of New Flare Prediction Algorithms Large magnetic field + large vorticity = larger flares Courtesy of GONG Integrity - Service - Excellence 14

ISOON – GONG Operational Integration ISOON GONG • 1 arc/sec resolution • Meets AFSPC and NEPC requirements • Remote operation will collocate solar analysts with space wx forecasters 15 • 2. 5 arc/sec resolution • Flare patrol during gaps in ISOON coverage • 6 -site network assures eyes on Sun • Data to be integrated into analyst workstation at AFWA Integrity - Service - Excellence

Investing in a Global Observing Network SAN VITO SAGAMORE HILL BIG BEAR KIRTLAND HOLLOMAN KAENA POINT TEIDE UDAIPUR MAUNA LOA LEARMONTH CERRO TOLOLO ISOON / RADIO ISOON ONLY RADIO ONLY RESEARCH ISOON GONG 16 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Space Weather Analysis and Forecast System (SWAFS) Dec 09 § Add NEXION SAO V 4. 3 data § Replace SWPC IDS Adapter with E-SWDS § Add GOES 13 & 14 Data – Delayed Jun 10 § Add NEXION SAO V 5. 0 XML data § Implement real-time Dst § Integrate non-SWAFS applications § ICF (Pave Paws, ROTHR & IONPRO) § Integrate regional Gauss-Markov GAIM § Add DMSP F-17 SSUSI disk & limb data FY 10 -11 (Planned) § Begin development of net - centric JMSESS (JMBL) § Add DMSP F-18 SSM/J/IES & SSUSI data § Add Radio Occultation data to GAIM § Continue re-engineering of non-SWAFS spreadsheets § Integrate remaining non-SWAFS applications § Engineering studies: ISOON & GONG Integrity - Service - Excellence

Other Partnerships n Collaboration with CCMC: Integrated Space Weather Analysis (i. SWA) n User-friendly data/model displays Model Comparisons/Validation n “Ensemble” displays n n Collaboration with AFRL Space Wx Forecast Laboratory, NRL n AFWA, AFSPC/A 3, SMC, AFRL, and ESC IPT – one voice Integrity - Service - Excellence 18

What We Still Need n Physics-based models for scintillation, magnetosphere Improved flare forecast tool/model § Improved CME forecast tool/model n Improved proton prediction and dual frequency GPS error models n Improved radiation exposure model n Needed collections: Top-side ionosphere Solar wind (ACE follow-on) Radiation belt storm probe and SDO Integrity - Service - Excellence 19

Headquarters U. S. Air Force Integrity - Service - Excellence Customers Questions? Research & Development Acquisition Operations Rising Sun Over Pyramid (painting) – Paul Greco, 2009 20

Space Weather Warfighter Impacts Scintillation X-Rays, EUV, Radio Bursts Arrival: 8 min / Duration: 1 -2 days § § § SATCOM Interference Radar Interference HF Radio Blackout Geolocation Errors Satellite Orbit Decay Daily / ionospheric disturbance § Degraded SATCOM § Dual Frequency GPS Error § Positioning § Navigation § Timing Proton Events Geomagnetic Storms Arrival: 15 min to hours / Duration: days Arrival: 2 -3 days / Duration: days High Altitude Radiation Hazards Spacecraft Damage Satellite Disorientation Launch Payload Failure False Sensor Readings Degraded HF Comm (high latitudes) § § § § Spacecraft Charging and Drag Geolocation Errors Space Track Errors Launch Trajectory Errors Radar Interference Radio Propagation Anomalies Power Grid Failures Integrity - Service - Excellence 21

GAIM Plan & Deliverables Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) – 8 -9 year effort - FY 04: Cost Benefit Analysis - FY 05 - 06: USU Gauss-Markov (Dec 06 IOC) Removed - FY 07: UV-Capable Gauss-Markov F-16 SSUSI Disk, Speed-up/restart - FY 08: F-16 SSUSI Limb - FY 09: GAIM/HAF Coupling, Optimized/multi-region GAIM, F-17 SSUSI, NEXION - FY 10: F-18 SSUSI & (SSULI? ), NEXION - FY 11: F-18 SSULI (TBD) - FY 12 -13: Full Physics GAIM in FY 07 (S 2 I 5) PRISM Gridded File GAIM (Continuous) net. CDF Gridded File HF Illumination Semi-annual GAIM Summit key to stakeholder commitment GPS Error Other Apps Request for Interactive HF or GPS SCI, SWPC & Stennis Integrity - Service - Excellence 22