HBF Planning Conference Reaping the rewards of Housing
HBF Planning Conference Reaping the rewards of Housing Market Assessments Yolande Barnes Director, Savills Research 14 September 2006
• some background on demand supply outline • are HMAs good news or (yet) another excuse for consultants to make money? • what should an HMA include?
some background on demand supply
UK build rates are the lowest in Western Europe … Source: RICS, Savills Research
… and don’t always hit planned targets Source: Savills, regional planning documents & DCLG
market pricing shows quality disparity Source: Land Registry/Savills Research
we just ain’t building them any more …
… or creating the new “ubertowns” Source: Savills Research
when competing for scarce space …
… the size of your club matters
(although we think we’re more sophisticated now)
demand supply interact Source: HM Land Registry, CACI
a good HMA will add value
market expertise is needed at an early stage Source: Savills Research
the market for some schemes may be wider than you thought … Source: Savills using Census 2001
… some developments will create their own market …
… competition from other new stock will have an impact … Source: Savills Research
changing demographics will affect demand will change market demographics … Source: ONS
… HMAs can inform the development mix to exploit market niches and fulfil latent demand Size range (sq. ft. ) Units % 1 bed flats 400 550 540 17% 2 bed flats 650 800 610 19% Larger flats/ smaller houses 800 1100 300 10% Smaller houses 800 1100 680 22% Larger houses 1100 1550 1, 010 32% 3, 140 100% Total Source: Savills
optimising development through understanding the market provides an edge Source: Savills
so what should an HMA include?
• social housing it is not an old-fashioned housing assessment • need • excludes two-thirds of occupiers
it goes beyond standard development feasibility studies 1. Supply • current • future 2. Demand • current • future
1. inclusive • all occupiers 2. dynamic housing market assessments need to be: • • • over space over time between occupier groups 3. interactive • • critical mass development impact phasing impact existing and created demand
- Slides: 29