Have PostSecondary Access Policies Have Helped Marginalized Youth

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Have Post-Secondary Access Policies Have Helped Marginalized Youth? Karen Robson (York University), Robert S.

Have Post-Secondary Access Policies Have Helped Marginalized Youth? Karen Robson (York University), Robert S. Brown (Toronto District School Board), and Paul Anisef (York University), Rhonda George (York University)

A continuation of previous research • Our analysis of 2006 Toronto district school board

A continuation of previous research • Our analysis of 2006 Toronto district school board data revealed that later-life postsecondary transition rates of students varied significantly by race, class, and gender. (Robson, Anisef, Brown, & Parekh, 2014) • Specifically, black males were far less likely to go on to postsecondary compared to other groups. • Have things improved?

Data • Toronto District School Board Student Census data – 2006 and 2011 (different

Data • Toronto District School Board Student Census data – 2006 and 2011 (different cohorts) – Age appropriate Grade 12 students – Merged with administrative records – Merged with information on applications and offers of admission from Ontario colleges and universities for 4 years

Racial Composition of Samples (%) 40 35 30 25 20 2006 15 2011 10

Racial Composition of Samples (%) 40 35 30 25 20 2006 15 2011 10 5 0 Black East Asian Latin Middle American Eastern Mixed South Asian Southeast White Asian

Within-Group % of students with Special Education Needs % of Overall Racial Group 25

Within-Group % of students with Special Education Needs % of Overall Racial Group 25 20 15 2006 2011 10 5 0 Black E Asian Latin Middle. E Mixed S Asian SE Asian White Total

Within-Group % in Majority Academic Courses 90 80 Within-Group % 70 60 50 2006

Within-Group % in Majority Academic Courses 90 80 Within-Group % 70 60 50 2006 40 2011 30 20 10 0 Black E Asian Latin Middle. E Mixed S Asian SE Asian White Total

Average Grade 11/12 marks 90 Pretty consistent 2% grade inflation across the groups 80

Average Grade 11/12 marks 90 Pretty consistent 2% grade inflation across the groups 80 70 60 50 2006 40 2011 30 20 10 0 Black E Asian Latin Middle. E Mixed S Asian SE Asian White Total

University confirmations, 2006 and 2011 80 70 60 50 40 2006 2011 30 20

University confirmations, 2006 and 2011 80 70 60 50 40 2006 2011 30 20 10 0 Black E Asian Latin Middle. E Mixed S Asian SE Asian White Total

Difference between 2011 and 2006 (university confirmations) 8 Anything on this side of the

Difference between 2011 and 2006 (university confirmations) 8 Anything on this side of the 0 means there has been an 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 Black E Asian Latin Middle. E Mixed S Asian SE Asian White Total

College confirmations, 2006 and 2011 35 30 25 20 2006 2011 15 10 5

College confirmations, 2006 and 2011 35 30 25 20 2006 2011 15 10 5 0 Black E Asian Latin Middle. E Mixed S Asian SE Asian White Total

Difference between 2011 and 2006 (college confirmations) 9 8 7 Anything on this side

Difference between 2011 and 2006 (college confirmations) 9 8 7 Anything on this side of the 0 means there has been an improvement. 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Black E Asian Latin Middle. E Mixed S Asian SE Asian White Total

2011 to 2006 difference in confirming neither university or college 4 2 0 -2

2011 to 2006 difference in confirming neither university or college 4 2 0 -2 Black E Asian Latin Middle. E Mixed S Asian SE Asian White -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 Anything on this side of the 0 means there been less people not going to university or college. Total

Log odds of going to University – unadjusted (controlling for nothing) 1. 5 1

Log odds of going to University – unadjusted (controlling for nothing) 1. 5 1 0. 5 2006 0 Black -0. 5 -1 -1. 5 East Asian Latin American Middle Eastern Mixed South Asian Southeast Asian 2011

Log odds of going to University – adjusted (controlling for things*) 1. 5 1

Log odds of going to University – adjusted (controlling for things*) 1. 5 1 0. 5 2006 0 Black East Asian Latin American Middle Eastern Mixed South Asian Southeast Asian 2011 -0. 5 -1 *special needs, sex, generation of immigrant, parental postsecondary education, grade 11/12 marks, neighbourhood income, academic stream, enjoyment of school, race, school size. -1. 5

Log odds of going to college – unadjusted (controlling for nothing) 1 0. 8

Log odds of going to college – unadjusted (controlling for nothing) 1 0. 8 0. 6 2006 0. 4 2011 0. 2 0 Black -0. 2 East Asian Latin American Middle Eastern Mixed South Asian Southeast Asian

Log odds of going to college –adjusted (controlling for things*) 1 0. 8 0.

Log odds of going to college –adjusted (controlling for things*) 1 0. 8 0. 6 2006 0. 4 2011 0. 2 0 Black -0. 2 East Asian Latin American Middle Eastern Mixed South Asian Southeast Asian

Interactions • In 2006: – SNx. Income (university and college) • Parental income positively

Interactions • In 2006: – SNx. Income (university and college) • Parental income positively associated – SNx. Parents. PSE (college) – SNXblack. Xapplied (college)

2006 - Average Probabilities of Confirming College - Interaction of Black*SEN*Applied 0. 45 Not

2006 - Average Probabilities of Confirming College - Interaction of Black*SEN*Applied 0. 45 Not Black 0. 4 0. 35 0. 3 0. 25 0. 2 0. 15 0. 1 0. 05 0 Without SEN and not in applied With SEN, not in applied Without SEN and in applied With SEN and in applied

2006 - SN * Income

2006 - SN * Income

Interactions • In 2011 – – SNXapplied (university) black. Xapplied (university) sn. Xparentspse (college)

Interactions • In 2011 – – SNXapplied (university) black. Xapplied (university) sn. Xparentspse (college) sn. Xincome (college)

2011 - Average Probabilities of Confirming University with Race, SEN and applied interactions 0.

2011 - Average Probabilities of Confirming University with Race, SEN and applied interactions 0. 8 0. 7 0. 6 Black Not Black 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0 Without SEN, no applied Without SEN, applied With SEN and in applied

2011 - Interaction of SN and Parental PSE on College Confirmations 0. 4 0.

2011 - Interaction of SN and Parental PSE on College Confirmations 0. 4 0. 35 0. 3 0. 25 0. 2 For Students without SN, whether or not the parent has PSE is a strong determinant of whether they will go to college. 0. 15 0. 1 0. 05 0 SN + Parental PSE SN + No Parental PSE and PSE No SN and no Parental PSE

2011 - Neighbourhood income and probability of confirming college 0. 4 0. 35 0.

2011 - Neighbourhood income and probability of confirming college 0. 4 0. 35 0. 3 0. 25 With SN 0. 2 Without SN 0. 15 0. 1 0. 05 0 40 K 60 K 80 K 100 k

Summary • When we look at the different predictors of post-secondary, Black students are

Summary • When we look at the different predictors of post-secondary, Black students are way less likely to have what is required to go 1. lower grades 2. higher rates of special education needs 3. Less likely to be in academic streams This has not changed between 2006 and 2011.

But what has changed? • Controlling for all “that stuff”, black students actually have

But what has changed? • Controlling for all “that stuff”, black students actually have a higher likelihood of going to university compared to white students now

In other words

In other words

WHY? • Things are getting better? (Policies are working!)

WHY? • Things are getting better? (Policies are working!)

A shift in the composition of ethnic groups – “immigrant drive”

A shift in the composition of ethnic groups – “immigrant drive”

Note: Excerpt from policy analysis by Robson, Anisef, Newton and Tecle, 2015) Maybe the

Note: Excerpt from policy analysis by Robson, Anisef, Newton and Tecle, 2015) Maybe the policies worked! _(ツ)_/¯

Breakout groups Discussion questions: • How do you interpret the changes observed between 2006

Breakout groups Discussion questions: • How do you interpret the changes observed between 2006 and 2011 ? • What are the policy implications of these findings? • What are the practice implications of these findings?

Rob. Brown@tdsb. on. ca gatewaycitiesproject. info. yorku. ca

Rob. Brown@tdsb. on. ca gatewaycitiesproject. info. yorku. ca

References • 2014. Robson, K. , Anisef, P. , Brown, R. S. , and

References • 2014. Robson, K. , Anisef, P. , Brown, R. S. , and Parekh, G. “The Intersectionality of Postsecondary Pathways: The Case of High School Students with Special Education Needs” Canadian Review of Sociology, 51(3), 193 -215. • 2015. Robson, K. , Anisef, P. , Newton. L. and Tecle, S. “An Analysis of Provincial and Institutional Policy around the Inclusion of Marginalized Students in Ontario Postsecondary Education” MTCU Research Report.