HARMONIE in Met ireann Aisling Butler HARMONIE Users

HARMONIE in Met Éireann Aisling Butler HARMONIE Users Workshop 2018 AEMET 6 -7 November 2018 Contributions from Colm Clancy, Liz Walsh, Rónán Darcy, Alan Hally, Emily Gleeson, Aoife Murray, Gerry Murphy

General Issues • HARMONIE is a work in progress • • when to trust it and when not to? change is not always embraced • Observations sites • • • mainly coastal coverage is not dense enough Warning system • • • our areas are too large max vs. mean in an area threshold based warning system

Case 1: Storm Ali 19 -20 September 2018

T+18

“…soon becoming southerly force 8 to strong gale force 9 with storm force winds for a time”

T+12

T+6

“…force 7 to strong gale force 9 imminent, reaching storm force 10 to violent storm force 11 for a time this morning…” “There will be severe or possibly damaging gusts for a time in the morning especially in the west and northwest. Extreme caution is strongly advised in the coastal districts of County Clare, Connacht and west Ulster in the morning. ”

Case 2: Storm Callum at Dublin Airport 11 -12 October 2018

EIDW TAF 1118/1218… … BECMG 1122/1124 16020 G 35 KT BECMG 1200/1202 15025 G 45 KT TEMPO 1201/1204 16030 G 55 KT BECMG 1204/1206 19025 G 45 KT BECMG 1207/1209 20020 G 35 KT TEMPO 1210/1212 20025 G 40 KT BECMG 1212/1214 22015 G 25 KT= WARNING 1200/1204 25 -30 MAX 50 -55 1204/1207 25 -30 MAX 40 -45 1207/1212 20 -25 MAX 35 -40 Observations at Dublin airport 11/23 Z 12/00 Z 01 Z 160 18 KT 150 21 G 33 KT 150 19 G 35 KT 02 Z 03 Z 04 Z 05 Z 06 Z 07 Z 08 Z 09 Z 10 Z 140 27 G 46 KT 150 26 G 46 KT 170 18 G 40 KT 190 21 G 36 KT 210 17 G 42 KT 190 19 G 34 KT 190 14 G 33 KT 200 14 G 33 KT 180 17 G 27 KT

Case 3: “Heatwave” End of June/early July 2018

20 th to 30 th of June 2018 ECMWF HIRLAM

Visibility and low cloud

Harmonie 40 Harmonie 37

Case 4: Sea Fog 3 June 2018

IREPS

Irish Regional Ensemble Prediction System: IREPS Operational since 15 th October HARMONIE 10+1 ensemble (2. 5 km grid) Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting +Surface Perturbations 00 Z and 12 Z: 1 control (54 hours) + 10 members (36 hours) 06 z and 18 Z: 1 Control (54 hours) 03 Z, 09 Z, 15 Z and 21 Z: 1 control (3 hours)