GUINEA WORM EPIDEMIOLOGY By Alex and Dyumonwledeh Guinea

GUINEA WORM EPIDEMIOLOGY _ By Alex and Dyumonwledeh Guinea Worm 1

• Purpose _ _ Build a working STELLA model Learn about the effects of the pond level on the spread of the disease Guinea Worm 2

Scientific Background _ _ Parasitic Infection Commonly found in West Africa Ways it is spread: » Spread by worm eggs that are eaten by water fleas » Drinking infected water » Process takes a year Symptoms » Blisters » Worms in your body Guinea Worm 3

Cycle of Worm Guinea Worm 4

COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH _ _ _ ASSUMPTIONS: That the death rate for people with and without the disease are the same, there is no migration, death rate has no change over time. We used STELLA to show our findings and our computations. We made three seperate populations and linked them to show our final findings Guinea Worm 5

MODEL Guinea Worm 6

RESULTS _ _ We found that the variable that effected the outcome the most is the water level. Water level effects the reproduction of the worm therefore effecting the spread of the disease Guinea Worm 7

GRAPH _ _ _ _ Cyclop's_reproduction_rate =. 3 Human_Birth_Rate =. 05 Human_death_rate =. 02 Infection_rate =. 001 Pond_Evaporation_rate =. 01 Rainfall_Rate = 0 Recovery__Rate =. 45 Guinea Worm 8

Graphs Guinea Worm 9

ALL PICTURES Guinea Worm 10

REFERENCES _ _ _ _ www. broadcast. ohiostate. edu/~parasite/lifecycles/dracunculus_lifecycle. ht ml www. who. int/inf-fs/en/factoas. html www. everest. hunter. cany. edu/~bjt/afr. html www. xena. lsb. sbs. auckland. ac. nz/~pmetcalf/105. 352/ who/fact 098. html STELLA Erin Bell Bob Gotwals Guinea Worm 11