Growing Old Growing Young Demographic Challenges Hussein A

Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges Hussein A. Sayed

Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges n The main theme of the session is actually emphasizing the demographic challenges facing nations and subpopulation as a result of their different level of progress within the demographic transition process. n The same conclusion was also confirmed by the papers presented, although limited to the Australian experience, but it can be also observed at various levels: * Global / Regional * National * Sub-national

Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges n Besides their demographic implications, they will have clear implications for the measurement of progress, assuming that already have a common consensus of what various stakeholders mean by progress? n The presentations and the position elaborated yesterday showed different views about what is meant by progress for different groups and organs depending on various factors including the level of those concerned, the context and the time factor.

Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges Major prevailing demographic challenges that need to be elaborated include: Ø The changing age structure of the population; Ø Global Ageing; Ø Migration; and, Ø Population characteritics.

Demographic Transition: The Changing Age Structure § Long-term changes in fertility and mortality resulted in fundamental population dynamics that was reflected on the age structure. § The speed and depth of such changes varies, across nations and subpopulations, depending on their place within the demographic transition process. § Such differences can be noticed for different regions and globally, as shown in Table 1, representing the expected average annual growth rates during the period 2005 - 2050.

Table (1) Average Annual Rate of Change of the Total Population and the Population in Broad Age Groups, By Major Area, 2005 -2050 (Medium Variant) 0 -14 15 -59 60+ 80+ Total population World 0. 01 0. 63 2. 39 3. 37 0. 75 More developed regions -0. 14 -0. 38 1. 10 2. 13 0. 05 less developed regions 0. 03 0. 82 2. 88 4. 19 0. 89 Least developed countries 1. 02 2. 15 3. 32 4. 03 1. 84 Other Less developed countries -0. 29 0. 54 2. 84 4. 21 0. 68 Africa 0. 87 2. 00 3. 12 3. 86 1. 69 Asia -0. 29 0. 47 2. 70 4. 04 0. 64 Europe -0. 36 -0. 75 0. 90 1. 98 -0. 24 Latin America and the Caribbean -0. 38 0. 61 2. 98 3. 99 0. 74 North America 0. 23 0. 37 1. 67 2. 30 0. 62 Oceania 0. 09 0. 65 2. 11 2. 89 0. 81 Major areas Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2005) World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations.

Demographic Transition: The Changing Age Structure § Significantly low average annual rate of change for the age group 0 -14 years. With the exception of the least developing countries, the rate is very low and even negative for developed regions and parts of the less developed countries. This is mainly the result of continuous low birth rates. § Similar trend is noticed for the age group 15 -59 years, although the differences between developed and developing countries is becoming more obvious.

Global Ageing n Population dynamics, accompanied by significant improvements in health and longevity among the elderly are leading to growing percentages of ageing populations and growing rates of old age dependency. n Table 2 show a different pathways to the changes in the age structure, leading to growing old and growing young populations at different parts of the world. n The prevalence of two population models is clearly seen, at the regional level, reflecting the varying impact of population dynamics (fertility and mortality).

Global Ageing n The percentage of the population of age 60+ years amounted to 20% in the developed regions compared to only 11% in developing countries. n The trend is expected to continue manifesting in 2050 (32% compared to 20% respectively). n Significant differences are observed across regions, the percentage of population 60 years or over in Africa (2006) amount to 5 % compared to 21% for Europe and 17% for North America, confirming the prevalence of two models at various levels.

Table (2) Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006 Percentage Area or Region Number (thousands) 2006 2050 Percentage of total population 2006 80 years or over 2050 2006 2050 World 687 923 1 968 153 11 22 13 20 More developed regions 247 753 400 029 20 32 19 29 less developed regions 440 170 1 568 124 8 20 10 18 Least developed countries 39 593 171 191 5 10 7 10 Africa 48 709 192 884 5 10 8 10 Eastern Africa 13 670 55 015 5 8 8 9 Middle Africa 5 125 18 708 5 6 7 8 Northern Africa 13 240 60 646 7 19 8 13 southern Africa 3 723 6 943 7 12 8 19 Western Africa 12 951 51 572 5 9 7 8

Table (2) Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006 Percentage Area or Region Number (thousands) 2006 2050 of total population 2006 2050 Percentage 80 years or over 2006 2050 Asia 374 802 1 237 9 24 11 19 Eastern Asia 193 263 506 956 13 32 12 25 South- Central Asia 121 964 481 018 7 19 9 15 South - eastern Asia 45 117 174 959 8 23 9 16 western Asia 14 458 68 304 7 18 9 14 151 841 225 373 21 34 18 28 Eastern Europe 53 893 77 065 18 34 14 20 Northern Europe 20 517 31 916 21 30 21 29 Southern Europe 34 355 53 504 23 39 19 31 Western Europe 43 075 62 888 23 34 20 34 Europe

Table (2) Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006 Percentage Area or Region Number (thousands) 2006 Latin America and the Caribbean 2050 of total population 2006 2050 Percentage 80 years or over 2006 2050 50 971 188 652 9 24 14 21 4 289 11 497 11 25 15 24 Central America 11 389 50 748 8 24 13 20 South America 35 293 126 407 9 24 14 22 North America 56 866 118 114 17 27 21 28 4 733 11 893 14 25 19 26 Caribbean Oceania Source: Population Division of the Department of economic and social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2006)

Global Ageing n The ageing process would continue globally, across regions and countries as can be seen from Table 2. n By 2050, the percentage 60 years and over is to reach 22% and such percentages would be doubled for almost all developing regions, but the gap between developed and developing countries would narrow. n Similar percentage for Europe and North America would reach 34 and 27 % respectively.

Global Ageing: Overall Impact n Successful ageing leading to maximizing desired outcomes, i. e. “ adding life to years, not years to life”. n AS stated by ageing experts, successful ageing is the confluence of three functions: * Avoidance of disease and disability; * High cognitive and maintain physical and mental functioning; * Involvement in society and being active with life.

Global Ageing: Overall Impact n The aspirations of this growing group and their challenges need to reflected in measuring progress. n Various aspects of life for this group include: * Health transition, morbidity and disability; * Marital status changes & intergenerational relationships; * Family structure and the changing norm of the nuclear family; * Living arrangements; * Work participation; * Retirement and social security benefits. Table 3 presents some characteristics of this group.

Table (3) Population Ageing characteristic (60 Years or Over) 2006)

Demographic Challenges: Migration n Migration trends, similarly affected the changes in the age structure; n Migration stocks from developing countries might benefit from the better conditions in the receiving countries, but the benefits for the former are affected by many factors; n Managed migration programs are based on circular migration, short-term movements and incentives for return back. This will affect population dynamics in different ways. n A new type of data collection mechanisms are required.

Demographic Challenges: Population Characteristics n Human development aspects including health, education and economic growth; n Gender concerns, especially among ageing population; n Special groups needs and absorbing them within the society ( disability and people with psychological disorder) n Level of HIV/AIDS epidemic and death, especially in some region such as Africa.

Demographic Challenges and Measuring Progress n Measurement of progress that takes into consideration such demographic challenges, would require: * Identifying the aspirations and desirable outcomes for various groups and locations; * A combination of aggregate and distributional measures to respond to the needs of various special groups and geographic locations; * Improving the quality of primary data and widening the scope of measurements to take contextual aspects into consideration.

Demographic Challenges: Data Requirements n Providing primary quality data for various defined administrative level; n Collect information to monitor the situation of subpopulation groups, especially the ageing, to enable countries to develop better policies in that respect(such as the Health & retirement study of the USA) while at the same time develop systems to collect information on children; n Collect development information on international migration, especially that some countries are benefiting from this to help stem the decline of population size and working-age.

Measuring Progress n Measuring progress is a dynamic continuous process that depend on the perception of progress: n GDP considered a measure of progress in goods &services n HDI is mainly concerned with expanding abilities to make informed choices n Progress in that continuum should be concerned with capacity to achieve/realize informed choices.