Group II Improving Voter Registration Procedures Allison Horst

Group II: Improving Voter Registration Procedures (Allison Horst, Stephen Larson, Alex Tahk) Do voters in states with statewide registration systems report fewer problems voting than voters in states without them?

Basic logic • Find measure of “voter registration problems” and see whether voters in states with statewide voter registration systems report fewer problems – Define “statewide voter registration system” • Control for confounding effects, because states with statewide registration systems might also have other characteristics that minimize problems • Individual or aggregate level analysis

What the group did • Data – Measure of statewide registration systems: NCSL report – Registration problems: CPS Voting and Registration Supplement – Demographic data: Census

Table 1: Voters in states with centralized systems vs. voters in states without

Table 2: State-level multivariate analysis • Dependent variable: pct. of registered voters with reported registration problems • Independent variable: laundry list of demographics, state-level characteristics, etc. – Problem: not much works, and there’s collinearity – Solution: drop most variables • Table 2

Individual results

Comments • General – Overall strategy a very good one: simple test to a more complex test – The aggregate analysis is redundant and unnecessary • Specific comments – It’s good to have a summary table of variables – Comments on specific tables

Table 1 comments 1. 0% Centralized Voter Registration System Pct. with problems N No Yes 1. 0 26793 23729 Question: what is the sample? (All voters? All registered voters? )

Table 3 Comments What was the main reason (you/name) did not vote? Main thing: What is the dependent Variable measuring? • Denominator (all eligible voters or all non-voters? • Numerator (only reg. problems or all polling place problems? ) -9 No Response -3 Refused -2 Don't know -1 Not in universe 1 Illness or disability (own or family's) 2 Out of town or away from home 3 Forgot to vote (or send in absentee ballot) 4 Not interested, felt my vote wouldn't make a difference 5 Too busy, conflicting work or school schedule 6 Transportation problems 7 Didn't like candidates or campaign issues 8 Registration problems 9 Bad weather conditions 10 Inconvenient polling place or hours or lines too long 11 Other

Alternate regressions Numerator: Only registration problems Registration problems or lines Eligible Non-voters Eligible Nonvoters Reg. deadline (days) 0. 000053 (0. 00048) 0. 0076 (0. 0046) 0. 000074 (0. 000057) 0. 0012 (0. 0006) Centralized voter reg. (0, 1) 0. 00039 (0. 00041) -0. 0022 (0. 0041) 0. 00099 (0. 00048) 0. 0014 (0. 0047) Same-day registration (0, 1) -0. 0049 (0. 0012) -0. 042 (0. 012) -0. 0060 (0. 0014) -0. 051 (0. 015) Education (years [if done right]) 0. 00029 (0. 00012) 0. 0059 (0. 0014) 0. 00029 (0. 00014) 0. 0077 (0. 0016) Log of income ($) -0. 00082 (0. 00042) 0. 0038 (0. 0038) -0. 0012 (0. 0005) 0. 0044 (0. 0045) How many years at curr. Res. (yrs. ) -0. 0043 (0. 0002) -0. 032 (0. 002) -0. 0046 (0. 0003) -0. 033 (0. 002) Constant 0. 024 (0. 005) -0. 062 (0. 055) 0. 032 (0. 006) -0. 12 (0. 06) N 69, 837 6, 599 R 2 . 006 . 05 . 04 Mean of dep. Var. . 0038 . 068 . 0053 . 095 Sample:

Table 3 formatting comments Sta nd ard Group like categories Race • Asian • Black • Hispanic • Native Amer. Voting system • CVS • Provisional Ball. • Deadline err Go ors od , p lea se