Grand Forks Health Officers Dashboard Update Michael Dulitz
Grand Forks Health Officer’s Dashboard Update Michael Dulitz, MPH, NRP Opioid Response Project Coordinator COVID-19 Data/Analytics Leader Grand Forks Public Health Narysse Nicolet, MPH Public Health Program Specialist COVID-19 Data/Analytics Team Grand Forks Public Health
Grand Forks Health Officer’s Dashboard April 19, 2021 Factor Value New Cases per 100, 000 Tests Completed Last 7 days per 100, 000 Average Percent Positivity Last 7 Days Percent Change – New COVID-19 Cases Hospital Capacity – Staffed Beds 21. 4 3, 415 4. 5% -22. 4% Green 1 Day Score Weight Change 2 40% 0 10% 1 20% 0 10% – 0 20% Overall Score 1. 0 Overall Week-to-Week Score Trend Consecutive Days at Current Color Tier 6 Color Value Case Score Tests Green 0 <1/100 k >2 k/100 k <3% >20% Normal 0 – 0. 75 Yellow 1 1 -9/100 k 1 k-2 k/100 k 3 -4. 99% 0 -20% Limited 0. 76 – 1. 5 Orange 2 5 -10% 0 -20% Sig. Limited 1. 51 – 2. 25 Red 3 >10% >20% No beds 2. 26 – 3 10 -24/100 k 500 -1 k/100 k >25/100 k <500/100 k Weighted Score 0. 8 0. 0 0. 2 0. 0 % Positivity % Change Staffed Beds Overall Score
Grand Forks Health Officer Risk Score New Case Rate Comparison per 100, 000 – Other North Dakota Counties April 19, 2021 50 Scale changed to remove outliers 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2. 3 2. 1 0 2. 1 7 2. 2 4 3. 3 3. 1 0 3. 1 7 3. 2 4 3. 3 1 4. 7 4. 1 4 8. 5 8. 1 2 8. 1 9 8. 2 6 9. 2 9. 9 9. 1 6 9. 2 3 9. 3 0 10. 7 10. 14 10. 21 10. 28 11. 4 11. 11 11. 18 11. 25 12. 2 12. 9 12. 16 12. 23 12. 30 1. 6 1. 1 3 1. 2 0 1. 2 7 7. 1 5 7. 2 2 7. 2 9 7. 1 7. 8 0 Cass Burleigh/Morton Ward North Dakota Grand Forks
7 Day Active Hospitalizations Rate per 100, 000 County Comparison 40 Scale changed to remove outliers 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Grand Forks Cass Ward Burleigh/Morton 14 4. 31 3. 17 3. 3 3. 17 2. 3 2. 20 1. 6 1. 10. 1 4 10. 2 8 11. 1 1 11. 2 5 12. 9 12. 2 3 30 9. 16 9. 2 9. 19 8. 5 8. 22 7. 8 7. 24 6. 10 6. 27 5. 13 5. 29 4. 15 4. 1 0
Daily New COVID-19 Cases per 100, 000 Population Select Metropolitan Statistical Areas 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1. 1 1. 8 1. 15 1. 22 Grand Forks MSA Minneapolis MSA 1. 29 2. 5 2. 12 Fargo MSA St Cloud MSA 2. 19 2. 26 3. 5 3. 12 Sioux Falls MSA Duluth MSA 3. 19 3. 26 4. 2 Omaha MSA Rochester MSA 4. 9 4. 16
Quest to 60% Vaccination Rate Grand Forks County Vaccination Dashboard Data as of April 16, 2021* 40, 3% 4. 16 30, 8% 38, 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 1 Dose Coverage - All Population 4. 16 40% 50% Full Coverage - All Population 30, 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 21 368 0 10 000 20 000 80% 90% 100% 2 Dose Coverage - Vaccine Eligible Population (16+) 50% 60% Left to Vaccinate 70% 80% 90% 100% Goal: 60% Vaccine Coverage for Presumptive Herd Immunity 20 303 30 000 Fully Vaccinated Population Grand Forks County Population Estimate: 69, 451 Population Eligible to Receive Vaccine (16 years and older): 56, 248 Goal for 60% Population Coverage: 41, 671 70% 29, 2% Fully Vaccinated 4. 16 60% 40 000 50 000 60 000 Left to Vaccinate to Reach 60% Coverage *May be updated less than daily based on available data, no updates on weekends Herd immunity estimation per: Omer, S. , Yildirim, I. Forman, H. Herd immunity and implications for SARSCo. V-2 control. JAMA. Published online October 19, 2020. doi: 10. 1001/jama. 2020. 20892.
= 500 Population 60% Quest to 60% Vaccination Rate Grand Forks County Vaccine Coverage Data as of April 16, 2021* Fully vaccinated population Partially vaccinated population Legend Population needing vaccination to reach 60% vaccine coverage/herd immunity Non-vaccinated, vaccine eligible population 0 -15 year old population (Not eligible for vaccination)
Quest to 60% Full Vaccine Coverage Rate As of April 16, 2021 State 29, 0% 31, 0% Burleigh/Morton 27, 3% 32, 7% Ward 21, 1% 38, 9% Cass 35, 4% 24, 6% Grand Forks 30, 8% 29, 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Population Vaccinated 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 60% Source: Omer, S. , Yildirim, I. Forman, H. Herd immunity and implications for SARS-Co. V-2 control. JAMA. Published online October 19, 2020. doi: 10. 1001/jama. 2020. 20892.
Vaccine Hesitancy • Vaccine Hesitancy data based on Census Pulse Survey of adults • 6, 334 North Dakotans Responded, 4. 7% response rate • Underrepresented in 18 -24 age group Hesitant Strongly Hesitant NE North Dakota NW Minnesota 27% 12% 17% 6% Vaccine Hesitant Population in Grand Forks County Based on Census Estimates NE ND NW MN Percentage Source: Vaccine Hesitancy for COVID-19: PUMA Estimates. April 14, 2021. US Department of Health and Human Services Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation. Retrieved from: https: //aspe. hhs. gov/pdf-report/vaccinehesitancy-covid-19 -puma-estimates PUMA: Public Use Micro-Data Area Hesitant Strongly Hesitant 14, 854 6, 602 9, 352 3, 301
Quest to 60% Vaccination Rate = 500 Population Grand Forks County Vaccine Coverage With Added Vaccine Hesitant Population Estimate 60% Fully vaccinated population Partially vaccinated population Estimated Vaccine Hesitant Population (18 and older) Population needing vaccination to reach 60% vaccine coverage/herd immunity Non-vaccinated, vaccine eligible population 0 -15 year old population (Not eligible for vaccination)
Bottom Line • Strengths – Decreasing case incidence over the past week • Move back into yellow level with drop to 104 weekly sum of new cases – Breakthrough infections low – well within vaccine efficacy parameters • Weaknesses – Slowing of vaccine uptake – Increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Grand Forks County • Nationally, hospitalizations have decreased in older and vaccinated populations. • Opportunities – Improve vaccine confidence • Threats – Vaccine hesitant populations, Johnson and Johnson halt – Unknown potential impact of new COVID-19 variants • COVID-19 variants are active in the state based on random and indicated sampling of COVID-19 specimens
Questions? Additional Slides Attached
7 Day Average New COVID-19 Case Rate Grand Forks County Age Pop. 1 case rate increase 7 Day Sum of Cases 0 -9 9, 056 1. 6 12 10 -19 8, 849 1. 6 20 20 -29 16, 779 0. 9 30 30 -39 8, 689 1. 6 19 40 -49 6, 137 2. 3 10 50 -59 6, 872 2. 1 4 60 -69 7, 703 1. 9 7 70 -79 3, 380 4. 2 0 80+ 1, 986 7. 2 2
Quest to 60% Vaccination Rate Polk County, MN Data as of April 17, 2021* 17 -апр 36, 62% 29, 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% One Dose Coverage 17 -апр 5 000 10 000 80% 90% 100% 9 670 15 000 Polk people fully vaccinated Polk County Population Estimate: 31, 521 Goal for 60% Population Coverage: 18, 913 70% Two Dose Coverage 9 148 0 60% 20 000 25 000 30 000 Left to Vaccinate *May be updated less than daily based on available data Source: Omer, S. , Yildirim, I. Forman, H. Herd immunity and implications for SARS-Co. V-2 control. JAMA. Published online October 19, 2020. doi: 10. 1001/jama. 2020. 20892.
Percent Vaccinated 65+ One Dose 75% State 75% Burleigh Ward 72% 81% Cass 86% Grand Forks 70% 75% Source: North Dakota Immunization Information System Population Data: 2019 US Census American Community Survey Estimates Data used with permission 80% 85% 65+ Vaccinated 90% 95% 100%
Percent Vaccinated 18 -64 One Dose 37% State 36% Burleigh 26% Ward 51% Cass 43% Grand Forks 0% 10% 20% Source: North Dakota Immunization Information System Population Data: 2019 US Census American Community Survey Estimates Data used with permission 30% 40% 50% 60% Percent Vaccinated 18 -64 70% 80% 90% 100%
Quest to 60% Area Comparison Two Dose Vaccine Coverage Rate As of April 16, 2021 Manitoba 5, 1% 54, 9% SD 31, 1% 28, 9% ND 29, 6% 30, 4% MN 28, 8% 31, 2% 0% 10% 20% Data: https: //www. gov. mb. ca/covid 19/vaccine/index. html; https: //www. npr. org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/howis-the-covid-19 -vaccination-campaign-going-in-your-state 30% 40% 50% Population Vaccinated *Manitoba 1 dose coverage rate equal to 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 60% Source: Omer, S. , Yildirim, I. Forman, H. Herd immunity and implications for SARS-Co. V-2 control. JAMA. Published online October 19, 2020. doi: 10. 1001/jama. 2020. 20892.
Vaccination Rates in Comparable City/County Areas Data as of April 16, 2021 Percent Fully Vaccinated Olmstead County, MN (154, 000) Ramsey County, ND (11, 000) St. Louis County, MN (200, 000) Barnes County, ND (11, 000) Cass County, ND (177, 000) Douglas County, MN (37, 000) Stutsman County, ND (21, 000) Grand Forks County, ND (70, 000) Ottertail County, MN (58, 000) Betrami County, MN (46, 000) Polk County, MN (31, 000) Pennington County, MN (14, 000) Minnehaha County, SD (188, 000) Burleigh County, ND (95, 000) Stearns County, MN (158, 000) Becker County, MN (34, 000) Pennington County, SD (110, 000) Clay County, MN (63, 000) 41, 7% 36, 9% 36, 5% 36, 4% 35, 4% 32, 7% 32, 4% 30, 8% 30, 7% 29, 2% 29, 0% 28, 7% 28, 5% 28, 1% 26, 0% 24, 1% *Note: 1 day data discrepancy between MN data and SD, ND data 23, 3% 22, 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Cumulative Vaccination Rate per 100, 000 population All doses Select North Dakota Counties 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 - 12. 14 12. 21 12. 28 1. 4 1. 11 1. 18 Grand Forks 1. 25 Cass 2. 1 2. 8 Ward 2. 15 2. 22 3. 1 3. 8 Burleigh/Morton 3. 15 3. 22 State 3. 29 4. 5 4. 12
Doses administered versus population All doses Select North Dakota Counties 60, 00% 50, 00% 40, 00% 30, 00% 20, 00% 10, 00% 12. 14 12. 21 12. 28 1. 4 1. 11 1. 18 Grand Forks - 9% 1. 25 2. 1 Cass - 23% 2. 8 2. 15 2. 22 Ward - 9% 3. 1 3. 8 3. 15 3. 22 Burleigh/Morton - 16% 3. 29 4. 5 4. 12
Cumulative Vaccinations Delivered All doses Select North Dakota Counties 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 0 12. 14 12. 21 12. 28 1. 4 1. 11 1. 18 Grand Forks 1. 25 2. 1 Cass 2. 8 Ward 2. 15 2. 22 3. 1 Burleigh/Morton 3. 8 3. 15 State 3. 22 3. 29 4. 5 4. 12
Grand Forks County Vaccine Doses by Week 4 000 Outlier due to data correction from NDDOH 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 3/14 3/21 3/28 All Doses 4/4 4/11 4/18 3 908 3 719 Second Doses 3 069 3 885 2 511 2 813 3 466 3 875 3/7 1 498 1 349 2/28 1 693 First Doses 432 299 589 1 250 1 719 2 410 2 370 1 376 - 3 453 2 212 2 224 2 216 2 156 500 Week Ending Estimated 60% First Dose Completion 2/28 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 6/1 5/29 6/5 6/12 5/17 8/9 6/23 6/29
6. 1 6. 6. 6 1 6. 1 1 6. 6 2 6. 1 26 7. 1 7. 7. 6 1 7. 1 1 7. 6 2 7. 1 2 7. 6 31 8 8. . 5 1 8. 0 1 8. 5 2 8. 0 2 8. 5 30 9. 4 9. 9. 9 1 9. 4 1 9. 9 2 9. 4 2 10 9 10. 4 10. 9 10. 14 10. 19 10. 24. 2 11 9 11. 3 11. 8 11. 13 11. 18 11. 23. 2 12 8 12. 3 12. 8 12. 13 12. 18 12. 23. 2 8 1. 2 1. 1. 7 1 1. 2 1 1. 7 2 1. 2 27 2. 1 2. 2. 6 1 2. 1 1 2. 6 2 2. 1 26 3. 3. 8 1 3. 3 1 3. 8 2 3. 3 28 4. 2 4. 4. 7 12 7 Day New Case Average per 100, 000 population State Comparison 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Data reported from individual state’s departments of health Minnesota North Dakota South Dakota Manitoba Minnesota Data Reported by Date of Specimen
4. 1 4. 4. 8 1 4. 5 2 4. 2 29 5 5. . 6 1 5. 3 2 5. 0 27 6 6. . 3 1 6. 0 1 6. 7 24 7. 1 7. 7. 8 1 7. 5 2 7. 2 29 8. 8. 5 1 8. 2 1 8. 9 26 9. 2 9. 9. 9 1 9. 6 2 9. 3 3 10 0 10. 7 10. 14 10. 21. 2 11 8 11. 4 11. 11 11. 18. 2 12 5 12. 2 12. 9 12. 16 12. 23. 3 0 1. 1. 6 1 1. 3 2 1. 0 27 2 2. . 3 1 2. 0 1 2. 7 24 3. 3. 3 1 3. 0 1 3. 7 2 3. 4 31 4. 4. 7 14 Average Daily New Hospitalizations per 100, 000 population State Comparison 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Minnesota North Dakota South Dakota
Grand Forks County Populations (2019 Census ACS): 0 -19: 17, 905 60+: 11, 217 20 -29: 16, 779 30 -59: 21, 698 All: 69, 541 7 Day Average New COVID-19 Cases by Age Group Rate per 10, 000 Grand Forks County 10 Scale changed to remove outliers 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8. 15 8. 22 8. 29 9. 5 9. 12 9. 19 9. 26 10. 3 10. 1 0 10. 1 7 10. 2 4 10. 3 1 11. 7 11. 1 4 11. 2 1 11. 2 8 12. 5 12. 1 2 12. 1 9 12. 2 6 1. 2 1. 9 1. 16 1. 23 1. 30 2. 6 2. 13 2. 20 2. 27 3. 6 3. 13 3. 20 3. 27 4. 3 4. 10 4. 17 8 8. 1 0 0 -19 20 -29 30 -59 60+ All
Actual Incidence of COVID-19 versus 14 day Doubling Time Projection Grand Forks County Doubling time on 04/19: 418 days Incidence on 04/19: 10, 358 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 Actual Incidence 12/14 Projection 1/19 Projection 2/16 Projection 3/15 Projection 4/5 Projection 27 5. 13 5. 29 4. 15 4. 18 3. 4 3. 18 2. 4 2. 21 1. 7 1. 4 12 . 2 0. 1 6 2/1 Projection 12 11 . 2 2 11 . 1 9. 2 5 10 . 1 10 17 9. 3 9. 20 8. 6 8. 23 7. 9 7. 25 6. 11 6. 28 5. 14 5. 30 4. 16 4. 2 -
18 000 16 000 Actual Incidence of COVID-19 versus 14 day Doubling Time Projection Grand Forks County Detailed View Doubling time on 04/19: 418 Incidence on 04/12: 10, 358 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 Actual Incidence 12/14 Projection 1/19 Projection 2/16 Projection 3/15 Projection 20 5. 6 5. 4. 22 8 4. 25 3. 11 3. 25 2. 11 2. 28 1. 14 1. 3 12 7. 1 12 . 3 12 9. 1 11 . 5 11 2. 2 10 10 . 8 4/5 Projection
Estimated Case Doubling Time Grand Forks County 1 800 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 10. 1 2 10. 2 6 11. 9 11. 2 3 12. 7 12. 2 1 1. 4 1. 18 2. 15 3. 29 4. 12 28 9. 14 9. 31 8. 17 8. 3 8. 20 7. 6 7. 22 6. 8 6. 25 5. 11 5. 27 4. 13 0 4. Doubling Time (Days) 1 600 Source: Patel, B. , Patel, P. Doubling Time and its Interpretation for COVID 19 Cases. National Journal of Community Medicine. March 2020.
7 Day Sum of Deaths per 100, 000 Population Area comparison (ND, MN, SD and Manitoba) 25 20 15 10 Note: Unreported deaths found by MN audit, resulting in report of 138 additional deaths 5 Source: White House Coronavirus Task Force (WHCVTF) Minnesota North Dakota South Dakota Manitoba 14 4. 31 3. 17 3. 3 3. 17 2. 3 2. 20 1. 6 1. 10. 1 4 10. 2 8 11. 1 1 11. 2 5 12. 9 12. 2 3 30 9. 16 9. 2 9. 19 8. 5 8. 22 7. 8 7. 24 6. 10 6. 27 5. 13 5. 29 4. 15 4. 1 0 Modified to match WHCVTF methodology
6. 1 6. 6. 8 1 6. 5 2 6. 2 29 7. 7. 6 13 7. 20 7. 27 8. 8. 3 1 8. 0 1 8. 7 2 8. 4 31 9. 9. 7 14 9. 2 9. 1 2 10 8 10. 5. 10 12. 10 19. 2 11 6. 11 2 11. 9. 11 16. 11 23. 3 12 0 12. 7. 12 14. 12 21. 2 8 1. 1. 4 1 18 1. 25 2. 1 2. 2. 8 1 2. 5 22 3. 1 3. 3. 8 15 3. 22 3. 29 4. 4. 5 12 7 Day Testing Average per Day - COVID-19 Grand Forks County April 19, 2021 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 Unique Tests Serial Tests
9. 1 9. 6 9. 1 1 9. 1 6 9. 2 1 9. 2 6 10. 1 10. 6 10. 11 10. 16 10. 21 10. 26 10. 31 11. 5 11. 10 11. 15 11. 20 11. 25 11. 30 12. 5 12. 10 12. 15 12. 20 12. 25 12. 30 1. 4 1. 9 1. 1 4 1. 1 9 1. 2 4 1. 2 9 2. 3 2. 8 2. 1 3 2. 1 8 2. 2 3 2. 2 8 3. 5 3. 1 0 3. 1 5 3. 2 0 3. 2 5 3. 3 0 4. 4 4. 9 4. 1 400 7 Day Average Daily Tests Completed PCR and Antigen Susceptible Testing Encounters Grand Forks County 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 7 Day Average PCR 7 Day Average Antigen
4. 15 4. 2 29 5. 5. 6 13 5. 2 5. 0 27 6. 6. 3 10 6. 1 6. 7 24 7. 1 7. 7. 8 1 7. 5 22 7. 29 8. 8. 5 1 8. 2 19 8. 26 9. 2 9. 9. 9 16 9. 2 9. 3 30 10 10. 7. 10 14. 10 21. 2 11 8 11. 4. 11 11. 11 18. 2 12 5. 12 2 12. 9. 12 16. 12 23. 3 0 1. 1. 6 1 1. 3 20 1. 27 2. 2. 3 1 2. 0 1 2. 7 24 3. 3. 3 1 3. 0 1 3. 7 2 3. 4 31 4. 4. 7 14 Grand Forks County Populations (2019 Census ACS): 60 -69: 7, 703 70 -79: 3, 380 80+: 1, 986 7 Day Average New COVID-19 Cases by Age Group (60+) Rate per 10, 000 Grand Forks County 20 18 16 Scale changed to remove outliers 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 60 -69 70 -79 80 -89
320 Grand Forks Health Officer Risk Score New Case Rate Comparison per – Other North Dakota Counties Case 100, 000 Rate Comparison North Dakota Communities April 19, 2021 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 4. 1 4. 8 4. 1 5 4. 2 2 4. 2 9 5. 6 5. 1 3 5. 2 0 5. 2 7 6. 3 6. 1 0 6. 1 7 6. 2 4 7. 1 7. 8 7. 1 5 7. 2 2 7. 2 9 8. 5 8. 1 2 8. 1 9 8. 2 6 9. 2 9. 9 9. 1 6 9. 2 3 9. 3 0 10. 7 1 10. 4 2 10. 1 28 11. 4 1 11. 1 1 11. 8 25 12. 2 12. 9 1 12. 6 2 12. 3 30 1. 6 1. 1 3 1. 2 0 1. 2 7 2. 3 2. 1 0 2. 1 7 2. 2 4 3. 3 3. 1 0 3. 1 7 3. 2 4 3. 3 1 4. 7 4. 1 4 0 Grand Forks Cass Burleigh/Morton Ward North Dakota
6. 1 6. 6 6. 11 6. 26 6. 21 6 7. 1 7 7. 1. 6 7. 11 7. 26 7. 21 7. 36 1 8. 5 8. 10 8. 25 8. 20 8. 35 0 9. 4 9. 9 9. 14 9. 29 9. 24 10. 9 10. 14 10. 19 10. 24 2 11. 9 11. 3 11. 8 11. 13 11. 18 11. 23 2 12. 8 12. 3 12. 8 12. 13 12. 18 12. 23 28 1. 2 1 1. 1. 7 1. 12 1. 27 1. 22 7 2. 1 2 2. 1. 6 2. 11 2. 26 2. 21 6 3. 3 3 3. 1. 8 3. 13 3. 28 3. 23 8 4. 2 4. 7 4. 12 7 14 000 Grand Forks Health Officer Risk Score Test Completion Comparison per 100, 000 – Other North Dakota Counties Case Rate Comparison North Dakota Communities April 19, 2021 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 Grand Forks Cass Burleigh/Morton Ward North Dakota
14 4. 31 3. 17 3. 3 3. 17 2. 3 2. 20 1. 6 1. 3 . 2 12 . 9 12 5 . 2 11 1 . 1 11 8 . 2 10 4 . 1 10 30 9. 16 9. 2 9. 19 8. 5 8. 22 7. 8 7. 24 6. 10 6. 27 5. 13 5. 29 4. 15 4. 1 4. Health Officer Score by Day Grand Forks County 3, 0 2, 5 2, 0 1, 5 1, 0 0, 5 0, 0
6. 1 6. 6. 16 6. 11 6. 26 6. 21 6 7. 1 7. 7. 16 7. 11 7. 26 7. 21 7. 36 1 8. 5 8. 10 8. 25 8. 20 8. 35 0 9. 4 9. 9. 19 9. 14 9. 29 9. 24 10. 9 10. 14 10. 19 10. 24 2 11. 9 11. 3 11. 8 11. 13 11. 18 11. 23 2 12. 8 12. 3 12. 8 12. 13 12. 18 12. 23 28 1. 2 1. 1. 17 1. 12 1. 27 1. 22 7 2. 1 2. 2. 16 2. 11 2. 26 2. 21 6 3. 3 3. 8 3. 13 3. 28 3. 23 8 4. 2 4. 7 4. 12 7 1 800 14 Day Average Daily Tests Completed Susceptible Testing Encounters – PCR and Antigen Included Comparison per 100, 000 – Other North Dakota Counties 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 Grand Forks Cass Burleigh/Morton Ward North Dakota
14 4. 31 3. 17 3. 3 3. 17 2. 3 2. 20 1. 6 1. 3 . 2 12 . 9 12 5 . 2 11 1 . 1 11 8 . 2 10 4 . 1 10 30 9. 16 9. 2 9. 19 8. 5 8. 22 7. 8 7. 24 6. 10 6. 27 5. 13 5. 29 4. 15 4. 1 4. Weekly Case Sum Grand Forks County 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0
Cumulative Deaths per 10, 000 County Comparison 40 35 30 25 County Populations (2019 Census ACS): Grand Forks County: 69, 451 Cass County: 181, 923 Ward County: 67, 641 Burleigh/Morton Counties: 126, 990 Ramsey County: 11, 519 Stutsman County: 20, 704 Williams County: 37, 589 Stark County: 31, 489 20 15 10 5 0 03. 23 04. 23 05. 23 06. 23 07. 23 08. 23 09. 23 10. 23 11. 23 12. 23 01. 23 Cass County Ward County Burleigh/Morton Counties Ramsey County Stutsman County Williams County Stark County Grand Forks County 02. 23 03. 23
Incidence Cumulative Deaths 0 4. 1 7 3. 2 3 3. 1 7 2. 2 3 2. 1 0 1. 3 6 1. 1 1. 2 . 19 12 . 5 12 . 21 11 . 7 11 . 24 10 10 6 9. 2 2 9. 1 9 8. 2 5 8. 1 8 7. 1 7. 4 0 6. 2 6. 6 3 5. 2 5. 9 5 4. 2 1 4. 1 8 3. 2 New Case Incidence (Cumulative) 8 000 50 6 000 40 4 000 30 20 2 000 10 0 Deaths (Cumulative) Incidence of New Cases and Incidence of Deaths Grand Forks County 80 10 000 70 60
Cumulative Deaths By County 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 03. 03. 04. 04. 05. 05. 06. 06. 06. 07. 07. 08. 08. 08. 09. 09. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 01. 01. 02. 02. 03. 03. 03. 04. 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 Grand Forks County Cass County Ward County Burleigh/Morton Counties Ramsey County Stutsman County Williams County Stark County
3. 2 2 3. 2 9 4. 5 4. 1 2 4. 1 9 4. 2 6 5. 3 5. 1 0 5. 1 7 5. 2 4 5. 3 1 6. 7 6. 1 4 6. 2 1 6. 2 8 7. 5 7. 1 2 7. 1 9 7. 2 6 8. 2 8. 9 8. 1 6 8. 2 3 8. 3 0 9. 6 9. 1 3 9. 2 0 9. 2 7 10. 4 1 10. 1 1 10. 8 25 11. 11. 8 1 11. 5 2 11. 2 29 12. 6 1 12. 3 2 12. 0 27 1. 3 1. 1 0 1. 1 7 1. 2 4 1. 3 1 2. 7 2. 1 4 2. 2 1 2. 2 8 3. 7 3. 1 4 3. 2 1 3. 2 8 4. 4 4. 1 1 4. 1 8 160 North Dakota Smart Restart Dashboard 14 Day Active Case Rate per. Case 10, 000 Population – Grand Forks County Rate Comparison North Dakota Communities April 19, 2021 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
3. 2 2 3. 2 9 4. 5 4. 1 2 4. 1 9 4. 2 6 5. 3 5. 1 0 5. 1 7 5. 2 4 5. 3 1 6. 7 6. 1 4 6. 2 1 6. 2 8 7. 5 7. 1 2 7. 1 9 7. 2 6 8. 2 8. 9 8. 1 6 8. 2 3 8. 3 0 9. 6 9. 1 3 9. 2 0 9. 2 7 10. 4 1 10. 1 1 10. 8 25 11. 11. 8 1 11. 5 2 11. 2 29 12. 6 1 12. 3 2 12. 0 27 1. 3 1. 1 0 1. 1 7 1. 2 4 1. 3 1 2. 7 2. 1 4 2. 2 1 2. 2 8 3. 7 3. 1 4 3. 2 1 3. 2 8 4. 4 4. 1 1 4. 1 8 20% North Dakota Smart Restart Dashboard 14 Day Percent Positivity per. Case 10, 000 Population – Grand Forks County Rate Comparison North Dakota Communities April 19, 2021 15% 10% 5% 0%
3. 2 2 3. 2 9 4. 5 4. 1 2 4. 1 9 4. 2 6 5. 3 5. 1 0 5. 1 7 5. 2 4 5. 3 1 6. 7 6. 1 4 6. 2 1 6. 2 8 7. 5 7. 1 2 7. 1 9 7. 2 6 8. 2 8. 9 8. 1 6 8. 2 3 8. 3 0 9. 6 9. 1 3 9. 2 0 9. 2 7 10. 4 1 10. 1 1 10. 8 25 11. 11. 8 1 11. 5 2 11. 2 29 12. 6 1 12. 3 2 12. 0 27 1. 3 1. 1 0 1. 1 7 1. 2 4 1. 3 1 2. 7 2. 1 4 2. 2 1 2. 2 8 3. 7 3. 1 4 3. 2 1 3. 2 8 4. 4 4. 1 1 4. 1 8 160 North Dakota Smart Restart Dashboard 14 Day Sum Daily Tests per. Case 10, 000 Population – Grand Forks County Rate Comparison North Dakota Communities April 19, 2021 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
7 Day Average Percent Positivity State Comparison (ND, SD, MN) and Manitoba 30% 25% *Changes in Manitoba data reporting created a significant increase in percent positivity. Percent positivity likely skewed due to changes. 20% 15% 10% 5% 22 8. 29 9. 5 9. 12 9. 19 9. 26 10. 10 3. 1 10 0. 1 10 7. 2 10 4. 3 1 11. 11 7. 1 11 4. 2 11 1. 2 8 12. 12 5. 1 12 2. 1 12 9. 2 6 1. 2 1. 9 1. 16 1. 23 1. 30 2. 6 2. 13 2. 20 2. 27 3. 6 3. 13 3. 20 3. 27 4. 3 4. 10 4. 17 8. 15 8. 8 0% MN % positivity ND % positivity SD % positivity Manitoba % positivity
7 Day Average Daily Tests per 100, 000 Population State Comparison (ND, SD, MN) and Manitoba 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 MN Testing ND Testing SD testing Manitoba testing 14 4. 31 3. 17 3. 3 3. 17 2. 3 2. 20 1. 6 1. 10. 1 4 10. 2 8 11. 1 1 11. 2 5 12. 9 12. 2 3 30 9. 16 9. 2 9. 19 8. 5 8. 22 7. 8 7. 24 6. 10 6. 27 5. 13 5. 29 4. 15 4. 1 0
7 Day Average New COVID-19 Cases for Ages 20 -29 Rate per 10, 000 Grand Forks, Cass, Ward, Burleigh/Morton Counties 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 8 6. 15 6. 22 6. 29 7. 6 7. 13 7. 20 7. 27 8. 3 8. 10 8. 17 8. 24 8. 31 9. 7 9. 14 9. 21 9. 28 10. 10 5. 1 10 2. 1 10 9. 2 6 11. 2 11. 11 9. 1 11 6. 2 11 3. 3 0 12. 12 7. 1 12 4. 2 12 1. 2 8 1. 4 1. 11 1. 18 1. 25 2. 1 2. 8 2. 15 2. 22 3. 1 3. 8 3. 15 3. 22 3. 29 4. 5 4. 12 6. 1 0 Grand Forks County Burleigh/Morton Counties Ward County Cass County The Atlantic Monthly Group. (2021). Data by State. COVID Tracking Project. https: //covidtracking. com/data
Cumulative Deaths Grand Forks County 90 Deaths through 04/19: 77 Doubling of cumulative death count 80 129 Days 13 Deaths 70 35 Days 32 Deaths 50 40 25 Days 16 Deaths 30 20 65 Days 8 Deaths 35 Days 4 Deaths 64 Days 2 Deaths 10 12 4. 29 3. 15 2. 18 1. 4 1. 10. 1 2 10. 2 6 11. 9 11. 2 3 12. 7 12. 2 1 28 9. 14 9. 31 8. 17 8. 3 8. 20 7. 6 7. 22 6. 8 6. 25 5. 11 5. 27 4. 13 0 4. Deaths 60
Health Officer’s Dashboard
Grand Forks Health Officer’s Dashboard April 19, 2021 Factor Value New Cases per 100, 000 Tests Completed Last 7 days per 100, 000 Average Percent Positivity Last 7 Days Percent Change – New COVID-19 Cases Hospital Capacity – Staffed Beds 21. 4 3, 415 4. 5% -22. 4% Green 1 Day Score Weight Change 2 40% 0 10% 1 20% 0 10% – 0 20% Overall Score 1. 0 Overall Week-to-Week Score Trend Consecutive Days at Current Color Tier 6 Color Value Case Score Tests Green 0 <1/100 k >2 k/100 k <3% >20% Normal 0 – 0. 75 Yellow 1 1 -9/100 k 1 k-2 k/100 k 3 -4. 99% 0 -20% Limited 0. 76 – 1. 5 Orange 2 5 -10% 0 -20% Sig. Limited 1. 51 – 2. 25 Red 3 >10% >20% No beds 2. 26 – 3 10 -24/100 k 500 -1 k/100 k >25/100 k <500/100 k Weighted Score 0. 8 0. 0 0. 2 0. 0 % Positivity % Change Staffed Beds Overall Score
Quest to 60% Vaccination Rate Grand Forks County Vaccination Dashboard Data as of April 16, 2021* 40, 3% 4. 16 30, 8% 38, 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 1 Dose Coverage - All Population 4. 16 40% 50% Full Coverage - All Population 30, 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 21 368 0 10 000 20 000 80% 90% 100% 2 Dose Coverage - Vaccine Eligible Population (16+) 50% 60% Left to Vaccinate 70% 80% 90% 100% Goal: 60% Vaccine Coverage for Presumptive Herd Immunity 20 303 30 000 Fully Vaccinated Population Grand Forks County Population Estimate: 69, 451 Population Eligible to Receive Vaccine (16 years and older): 56, 248 Goal for 60% Population Coverage: 41, 671 70% 29, 2% Fully Vaccinated 4. 16 60% 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 Left to Vaccinate to Reach 60% Coverage *May be updated less than daily based on available data, no updates on weekends Herd immunity estimation per: Omer, S. , Yildirim, I. Forman, H. Herd immunity and implications for SARSCo. V-2 control. JAMA. Published online October 19, 2020. doi: 10. 1001/jama. 2020. 20892.
= 500 Population 60% Quest to 60% Vaccination Rate Grand Forks County Vaccine Coverage Data as of April 16, 2021* Fully vaccinated population Partially vaccinated population Legend Population needing vaccination to reach 60% vaccine coverage/herd immunity Non-vaccinated, vaccine eligible population 0 -15 year old population (Not eligible for vaccination)
Grand Forks County April 19, 2021 Factor New Cases Susceptible Testing Encounters 1 Tests (specimens) Unique Test Specimens Serial Test Specimens Percent Positivity (Susceptible Tests) All Test Positivity Active Cases 1 Susceptible PCR Antigen 5 0 5 50 2 52 53 2 55 10 45 9. 6% 127 10. 0% All tests are tests completed on individuals who have never tested positive. Susceptible tests are only counted once per individual, per day, even if they were tested multiple times.
Grand Forks Health Officer Risk Score April 19, 2021 7 Day Average of New COVID-19 Cases per Day per 100, 000 Grand Forks County 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 6. 15 6. 29 7. 13 7. 27 8. 10 8. 24 9. 7 9. 21 10. 5 10. 19 11. 2 11. 16 11. 30 12. 14 12. 28 1. 11 1. 25 2. 8 2. 22 3. 8 3. 22 4. 5 7 Day Sum of COVID-19 Tests per 100, 000 population Grand Forks County 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 6. 1 6. 8 6. 1 6. 2 7. 6 7. 1 7. 2 8. 3 8. 1 8. 2 8. 3 9. 7 9. 1 9. 2 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 1. 4 1. 1 1. 2 2. 1 2. 8 2. 1 2. 2 3. 1 3. 8 3. 1 3. 2 4. 5 4. 1 5 2 9 3 0 7 4 1 8 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 1 8 5 5 2 9 2
Grand Forks Health Officer Risk Score April 19, 2021 7 Day Average of Percent of All Tests Administered that are Positive for COVID-19 Grand Forks County 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 6. 15 6. 29 7. 13 7. 27 8. 10 8. 24 9. 7 9. 21 10. 5 10. 19 11. 2 11. 16 11. 30 12. 14 12. 28 1. 11 1. 25 2. 8 2. 22 3. 8 3. 22 4. 5 Percent Change Between 7 Day Case Totals (14 Days Total) Grand Forks County 240% 200% 160% 120% 80% 40% 0% -40% -80% -120% 6. 1 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28. 5. 1. 1. 2. 2. 9. 1. 2. 3. 7. 1. 2. 2 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 2 9 6 6 3 0 4 1 8
0% -40% -80% -120% 4. 12 4. 5 3. 29 3. 22 3. 15 3. 8 3. 1 2. 22 2. 15 2. 8 2. 1 1. 25 1. 18 1. 11 1. 4 12. 28 12. 21 12. 14 12. 7 11. 30 11. 23 11. 16 11. 9 11. 2 10. 26 10. 19 10. 12 10. 5 9. 28 9. 21 9. 14 9. 7 8. 31 8. 24 8. 17 8. 10 8. 3 7. 27 7. 20 7. 13 7. 6 6. 29 6. 22 6. 15 6. 8 6. 1 0, 0 6. 1 6. 6 6. 11 6. 16 6. 21 6. 26 7. 1 7. 6 7. 11 7. 16 7. 21 7. 26 7. 31 8. 5 8. 10 8. 15 8. 20 8. 25 8. 30 9. 4 9. 9 9. 14 9. 19 9. 24 9. 29 10. 4 10. 9 10. 14 10. 19 10. 24 10. 29 11. 3 11. 8 11. 13 11. 18 11. 23 11. 28 12. 3 12. 8 12. 13 12. 18 12. 23 12. 28 1. 2 1. 7 1. 12 1. 17 1. 22 1. 27 2. 1 2. 6 2. 11 2. 16 2. 21 2. 26 3. 3 3. 8 3. 13 3. 18 3. 23 3. 28 4. 2 4. 7 4. 12 4. 17 Grand Forks Health Officer Risk Score April 19, 2021 Grand Forks Health Officer’s Dashboard Overall Score Grand Forks County 3, 0 2, 5 2, 0 1, 5 1, 0 0, 5 Percent Change Between 7 Day Score Totals (14 Days Total) Grand Forks County 240% 200% 160% 120% 80% 40%
Yesterday’s Dashboard April 18, 2021 Factor Value New Cases per 100, 000 Tests Completed Last 7 days per 100, 000 Average Percent Positivity Last 7 Days Percent Change – New COVID-19 Cases Hospital Capacity – Staffed Beds 21. 6 3, 585 3. 7% -19. 8% Green 1 Day Score Weight Change 2 40% 0 10% 1 20% 1 10% – 0 20% Overall Score 1. 1 Overall Week-to-Week Score Trend Consecutive Days at Current Color Tier 5 Color Value Case Score Tests Green 0 <1/100 k >2 k/100 k <3% >20% Normal 0 – 0. 75 Yellow 1 1 -9/100 k 1 k-2 k/100 k 3 -4. 99% 0 -20% Limited 0. 76 – 1. 5 Orange 2 5 -10% 0 -20% Sig. Limited 1. 51 – 2. 25 Red 3 >10% >20% No beds 2. 26 – 3 10 -24/100 k 500 -1 k/100 k >25/100 k <500/100 k Weighted Score 0. 8 0. 0 0. 2 0. 1 0. 0 % Positivity % Change Staffed Beds Overall Score
ND Department of Health/Governor’s Office Dashboard April 19, 2021 Factor Value Change 20. 1 14 Day Average Daily Tests per 10, 000 population* 50 – 14 Day Average COVID-19 Test Percent Positivity* 4. 9% – 14 Day Average of Active Cases Per Day (per 10, 000 population) Level Methodology per North Dakota Smart Restart Guidance provided by the North Dakota Department of Health (NDDo. H) and North Dakota Governor’s Office. *Measure changed on 10/16 to use susceptible encounters instead of total tests to match NDDo. H methodology Measure changed on 1/9 to use antigen testing in calculation of percent positivity Color Case Score Test % Positivity Blue <10/10, 000 >46/10, 000 <2% Green 10 -19/10, 000 41 -45/10, 000 2 -4. 99% Yellow 20 -29/10, 000 31 -40/10, 000 5 -9. 99% Orange 30 -39/10, 000 21 -30/10, 000 10 -14. 99% 40+/10, 000 <20/10, 000 >15% Red
300 Grand Forks Health Officer Risk Score New Case Rate Comparison per – Other North Dakota Counties Case 100, 000 Rate Comparison North Dakota April 19, Communities 2021 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 6. 1 6. 8 6. 1 5 6. 2 2 6. 2 9 7. 6 7. 1 3 7. 2 0 7. 2 7 8. 3 8. 1 0 8. 1 7 8. 2 4 8. 3 1 9. 7 9. 1 4 9. 2 1 9. 2 8 10. 5 10. 12 10. 19 10. 26 11. 2 11. 9 11. 16 11. 23 11. 30 12. 7 12. 14 12. 21 12. 28 1. 4 1. 1 1 1. 1 8 1. 2 5 2. 1 2. 8 2. 1 5 2. 2 2 3. 1 3. 8 3. 1 5 3. 2 2 3. 2 9 4. 5 4. 1 2 0 Grand Forks Cass Burleigh/Morton Ward North Dakota
6. 1 6. 6. 16 6. 11 6. 26 6. 21 6 7. 1 7. 7. 16 7. 11 7. 26 7. 21 7. 36 1 8. 5 8. 10 8. 25 8. 20 8. 35 0 9. 4 9. 9. 19 9. 14 9. 29 9. 24 10. 9 10. 14 10. 19 10. 24 2 11. 9 11. 3 11. 8 11. 13 11. 18 11. 23 2 12. 8 12. 3 12. 8 12. 13 12. 18 12. 23 28 1. 2 1. 7 1. 12 1. 27 1. 22 7 2. 1 2. 6 2. 11 2. 26 2. 21 6 3. 3. 18 3. 13 3. 28 3. 23 8 4. 2 4. 4. 17 4. 12 7 30% Grand Forks Health Officer Risk Score 7 Day. Case Percent Positivity Rate Comparison North Dakota April 19, Communities 2021 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Grand Forks Cass Burleigh/Morton Ward North Dakota
12 4. 29 3. 15 2. 18 1. 4 1. 10. 1 2 10. 2 6 11. 9 11. 2 3 12. 7 12. 2 1 28 9. 14 9. 31 8. 17 8. 3 8. 20 7. 6 7. 22 6. 8 6. 25 5. 11 5. 90 27 4. 13 4. Deaths Cumulative Deaths Grand Forks County Deaths through 04/19/21: 77 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
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