Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working Presented by

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS www. emerginggrowthstocks. ca http: //emerginggrowthstocks. blogspot. com www. Blog. Talk. Radio. com/Louis-Paquette 1

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? Question: In ONE WORD, what is the biggest challenge facing stock market investors and speculators? 2

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? UNCERTAINTY Over: � Overall market conditions � Interest rates � Commodity prices � Specific company performance � Government intervention � Odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit � Competition � Etc. 3

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? So what is certain? Stock rise an average 7% per annum over time, but not consistently There is a rhythm to asset price movement (cycles) from overbought to oversold, from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic � A contrarian can take advantage of this to boost returns and reduce losses � � ism m i t Op sm i m si s e P s k c to S 4

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? has strong annual seasonal tendencies � � 1. 2. 3. 4. Has risen 16 of past 20 Septembers September kicks off several of the planet’s most potent gold-demand drivers The post-monsoon wedding season in India, and Diwali, one of that country’s most important festivals; Restocking by jewelry makers in advance of the Christmas shopping season in the United States; The holy month of Ramadan in the Muslim world, whose end in late September is marked by a period of celebration and gift-giving; And in China, National Day celebration starting October 1 and the run-up to the Chinese New Year in early 2010. 5

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? So what does it look like? � Source: Moore Research Center, Inc. www. mrci. com 6

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? So what does it look like? 7

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? How has it done past 5 yrs? 8

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? Gold Stocks 9

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? Conclusions � Sort of works, but it’s not the end all, you need to “play it by ear” and look for oversold and overbought conditions to enter or exit � Works due to Physical demand for jewellery – and as the bull market has emerged Physical demand has fallen while Investment demand has grown – therefore seasonality isn’t as strong now as before � The way I would use: if price at significant high/low and coincides with seasonal trend – then use it – if not, don’t 10

Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? About EGS � Specialize in small caps � $159/yr or $15. 90/month Pay. Pal � www. emerginggrowthstocks. ca � http: //emerginggrowthstocks. blogspot. com � “Week in Review with Lou” Podcast, with our Charts of the Week � Friday’s at 4: 00: blogtalkradio � www. blogtalkradio. com/Louis-Paquette 11

Update Oct 28, 2009 for VN Mtg. �Gold target this season: $1, 300 $150 $300 $150 12