Go go said the bird human kind Cannot

Go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality T. S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets) . . . the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see” (“willful blindness”) John Casti, X-Events, 2012

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Communicating the Science about a Global Challenge Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Expected Future Changes An Unparalled Challenge for Humanity? Global Change: The Anthropocene Communicating the Challenge Responding to the Challenge Hans-Peter Plag Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA hpplag@odu. edu

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations IPCC, 2013

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Temperature, 1900 -2012, 5 Year averages of anomly compared to 1900 -1905

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Greenland

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Marcott et al. , 2013

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations “Normal” variability: - global temperature: 0. 2 o. C/century (-0. 5 to 0. 5) - global sea level: 1. 5 m/century (-6. 0 to 6. 0) 20 th century: - global temperature: 0. 7 o C - global sea level: 0. 2 m

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Climate change is happening: - now, for certain - everywhere, globally Sea level change is happening: - rapidly now, certain - expected to get worse - everywhere, globally - rapidly - expected to get worse

Expected Future Changes

Expected Future Changes

Expected Future Changes

Expected Future Changes

Expected Future Changes }IPCC t

} Expected Future Changes 4 3 2 o 1 C IPCC Assessment: Very Likely Marcott et al. , 2013

Expected Future Changes Example Hampton Roads Today’s rate: 5 mm per year (about 1. 5 feet in 100 years) Soon could get as high as: 20 mm per year (about 6 feet in 100 years) Modified from Church et al. (2010)

An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? 19. 20. 21. org: 19 cities in the world with 20 million people in the 21 st century “. . . , almost all of the cities to be studied in 19. 20. 21 are cities that border the oceans of the world, and will be affected by the rise in sea levels

An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? Lovelock (and many others): - Planet is on a run-away path; could reach a warm state (5 C warmer) already in 2050 Germany China Australia USA Lovelock: - Carrying capacity of the planet would be reduced to 1 Billion - Recommendation: look for the lifeboats

An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? Are we on Titanic after it hit the iceberg? Captain E. J. Smith: “I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that. ” There were lifeboats for about half of the passengers, but only 1/3 made it into them I hope, we can do better.

An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? 11. 1% Genghis Khan

Global Change: The Anthropocene Population 1750 2000 GDP CO 2 CH 4 Temperature Floods We are Reengineering the Planet. . . Cars Bill Mc. Kibben: Earth becomes Eaarth. . . Deforestation Extinction

Global Change: The Anthropocene We are Reengineering the Planet. . .

Global Change: The Anthropocene “Has human activity over the past two centuries pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the Anthropocene? ” James Syvitski, 2012. The Anthropocene: A transition to a new epoch? - a slowly hitting asteroid - a planetary accident - an extinction-class event Plag, 2013 We have moved from to back seats of the bus into the driver seat. . .

Communicating the Challenge Earth is on the ? Edge Humanity as a global species is on the edge We don’t know where the edges are, but we keep running faster and faster. . . (On The Edge @ Running. In. Fog) “Safe operating space for humanity” Rockstroem et al. , 2009

Communicating the Challenge The planet is on a path unknown to humanity. . . Small Steps no longer make much sense. . . We need a fundamental change of how we are in the world. . .

Responding to the Challenge What Could this Fundamental Change be? Millennium Development Goals (2005 -2015): Mostly not reached Sustainable Development Goals (2015 -2025): Proposed, look very good. . . SDGs: 1 Thriving lives and livelihoods 2 Sustainable food security 3 Secure sustainable water 4 Universal clean energy 5 Healthy and productive ecosystems 6 Governance for sustainable societies Griggs et al. , 2013

Responding to the Challenge Griggs et al. , 2013: Sustainable Development: “Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends” Griggs et al. , 2013 Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life support system Plag et al. , 2013

Responding to the Challenge Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life-support system An economy that meets our needs by burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s life-support system is like a doctor who practices medicine by killing the patients. Economy for humanity: “An economy that meets our needs while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends. ” Plag et al. , 2013

“No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it. ” Albert Einstein “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it” Upton Sinclair