GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration EHA 140

GM 1208 / EHA 128 International Migration EHA 140 International migration and immigrant integration The Case of Sweden GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS – THE CASE OF SWEDEN Swedish research 1970 s Economic aspects, labour mígration - unemployment, wages 1980 s 1990 s Cultural aspects, refugee immigration Economic aspects - economic assimilation (earnings, employment) - net fiscal effects - HC - temporal variation: economic structural change 2000 s - discrimination - networks, neighbourhoods - regional variation Bevelander & Lundh (2007) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

IMMIGRATION TO SWEDEN, 1945 - 2017 1945 – 1973 - 2017 • Industrial and economic growth • Liberal immigration policy • Labour migration • Lower growth rates • Structural economic change • Immigration control • Refugees and tied movers GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

0 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Immigration and emigration 1946 - 2015 140, 000 120, 000 100, 000 80, 000 60, 000 40, 000 20, 000 Immigrants Emigrants GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Return migration, 1968 -2001 (per 1, 000 person) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 1968 5 6 1973 7 8 1978 9 10 1983 11 12 13 1988 GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration 14 15 1993 16 17 1998 18 19 20

Immigration by region of origin, 1946 -2015 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Nordic countries Rest of Europé Outside Europe GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1948 0% 1946 10%

Number of asylum seekers 180, 000 160, 000 140, 000 120, 000 100, 000 80, 000 60, 000 40, 000 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20, 000 Asylum seekers GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Yearly change in GDP 1950 -1997 Percent GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Yearly change in GDP 1950 -1997 Percent 8 6 4 2 GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

Employment in agrariculture, manufacturing and building industry, and service (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 18 75 18 80 18 85 18 90 18 95 19 00 19 05 19 10 19 15 19 20 19 25 19 30 19 35 19 40 19 45 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05 20 10 0 Agriculture Industry Service GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Change of immigration policy Restricted non-Nordic immigration 1966 -1973 Background Actors Outcome • Extensive tourist immigration • AMS Labor board • Non-Nordic citizens • Perceived lack of skilled labor • Increase in immigration from Jugoslavia and Greece • Trade union movement • Employers’ Associations • Government • Crisis of textile and clothing industry • Recession 1966 GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration • Residence and work permits before entry • Organized immigration of skilled labor • Exceptions for political refugees and family members

Percentage of the total number of immigrants 1990 -1997 Arbetskraft 13% Flyktingar 33% Anhöriga 45% Övriga 9% Labor Refugees Family members Rest GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Measures In the labour force + Not in the labour force = Total population In the labour force = employed (self-employed) + unemployed • LFP rate • Employment rate • Unemployment rate = LFP/TP = E/TP = U/LFP) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Indicators of economic integration Natives Foreign borns 1) Unemployment (2014) ca 5% - ca 15% 2) Employment 82 -83% - 60 -70% 12 -16% - 19 -24% (2014) 3) Temporary employment(2002) 4) Job with right skill level(2002) 5) Income for employed (2002) Natives index = 100 GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration 90% - 40% 70 -100%

Unemployment and employment rates in 2001 by country of birth (%) Lundh, C et al (2002) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Unemployment and employment in 2001 by year of immigration (%). Lundh, C et al (2002) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Foreign born with temporary or part time employment in 2001 Temporary Part time Foreign Native MEN 19 12 12 9 WOMEN 24 16 31 34 Lundh, C et al (2002) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Employment situation of university graduates in 2000 Foreign born Native Qualified job 40 90 Unqualified job 24 3 Unemployed/program 15 2 Studying 18 3 Else 3 2 Note: Age 26 -45, university three years. Immigrants 1991 -1997, Source: Berggren & Omarsson 2002. GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Average annual labour income in 2000. Males. Index: Sweden=1, 00 Employed Total Sweden 1, 00 Nordic 0, 94 0, 77 Rest of EU 15 0, 96 0, 76 Rest of Europé 0, 83 0, 60 Soviet union 0, 93 0, 65 North America 0, 98 0, 70 Oceania 1, 08 0, 84 South America 0, 78 0, 62 Africa 0, 76 0, 47 Asia 0, 70 0, 41 Lundh, C et al (2002) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Self employment in 2001 (%) Prop of employed population Native men 13 10 Foreign born men 20 9 Native women 5 4 Foreign born women 8 4 Lundh, C et al (2002) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Distribution of individuals in different social welfare systems in 1990. Index: Sweden = 1, 00 Lundh, C et al (2002) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Employment rate 1960 -2015: men 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Native men 1990 1995 Foreign-born men GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration 2000 2005 2010 2015

Employment rate 1960 -2015: women 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Native women 1990 1995 2000 Foreign-born women GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration 2005 2010 2015

Unemployment rate 1977 -2001 F F N Lundh, C et al (2002) N GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Social benefits to foreign households as a percentage of total social benefit costs Lundh, C et al (2002) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Bevelander & Lundh (2007) ”Employment Integration of Refugees: The Influence of Local Factors on Refugee Job Opportunities in Sweden” Population: Immigrants from 12 countries (’refugees’), ages 25 -65 Dependant variable: Being employed, December 31, 2003 Logistic regression Odds ratios ref. 1. 00 1. 2. 3. 4. Effects of HC variables Effects of commune type Effects of local labour market Effects of local economy Bevelander & Lundh (2007) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration Yugoslavia Bosnia-Herzegovina Poland Rumania Hungary Turkey Lebanon Syria Chile Iran Iraq Ethiopia

The effects of human capital characteristics on the odds of being employed 2003 VARIABLE Age squared Marital status Not married Married Children None One Two Three or more Educational level Primary education Secondary education University Immigration year 1974 -1983 1984 -1993 1994 -2003 MEN WOMEN 1. 115 0. 998 1. 283 0. 997 1. 000 1. 379 1. 000 1. 213 1. 000 1. 654 - 1. 000 1. 104 1. 105 0. 742 1. 000 1. 666 1. 948 1. 000 1. 949 2. 304 1. 000 0. 857 0. 423 1. 000 0. 901 0. 372 + control for country of origin and internal migration in Sweden Bevelander & Lundh (2007) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS – THE CASE OF SWEDEN Bevelander & Lundh (2007) 1. Expected effects of HC-variables 2. 3. 4. Effects of commune type Effects of local labour market Effects of local economy Bevelander & Lundh (2007) GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Table 8: Municipality types. The odds ratio of obtaining employment in 2003. Selected refugee group (ages 25 -60) Variables University No Yes Tax level Contribution Type of municipality Big cities Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Other larger cities Medium sized cities Larger municipalities Smaller municipalities Rural area + controls Men Model A Model B Women Model A Model B 1. 000 0. 846 1. 020 0. 996 1. 000 0. 888 1. 004 0. 996 1. 000 0. 777 1. 044 0. 997 1. 000 1. 141 1. 147 1. 424 1. 813 1. 914 1. 000 0. 838 1. 048 0. 997 1. 000 0. 831 0. 615 0. 921 0. 860 0. 999 1. 231 1. 184 1. 129 1. 171 1. 288 1. 520 1. 861 GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration 1. 000 0. 773 0. 722 0. 929 0. 918 0. 968 1. 124 1. 265

Table 9: Local labour markets. The odds ratio of obtaining employment in 2003. Selected refugee group (ages 25 -60). Variables Employment level Unemployment level Size local labour market Men 1. 028 0. 920 1. 020 Women 1. 020 0. 932 1. 020 Source: Statistics Sweden Control for age, age squared, marital status, children in household, educational level and years since immigration, country of birth and internal migration. Bold, bold + italic and bold + italic + underlined indicates significance on 0. 01, 0. 05 and 0. 1 level. GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration

Table 10: Local economic structure. The odds ratio of obtaining employment in 2003. Selected refugee group (men in ages 25 -60). * Variables Relative size public sector Entrepreneurial climate Educational level Occupational level Relative size manufacturing sector Relative size private sector Model A 0. 993 1. 003 0. 802 0. 780 Model B 1. 011 1. 018 Control for age, age squared, marital status, children in household, educational level and years since immigration, country of birth and internal migration. Model B controls for type of municipality. Bold, bold + italic and bold + italic + underlined indicates significance on 0. 01, 0. 05 and 0. 1 level. GM 1208 EHA 128 International Migration