Globalization Manifestations of the Physical basis of Globalization

Globalization: Manifestations of the Physical basis of Globalization a. b. c. The Issue The Problem(s) Pathways to a solution To Larry the scientist – the citizen C. N. Papanicolas Jefferson Lab Talk cnp@cyi. ac. cy 1

Globalization • “Globalization” has entered our ideological and political interpretational framework strongly and decisively. • In its name policies and practices are established or justified, which affect significant aspects of our lives. • It has supporters and adversaries! But what is Globalization? • A political-economical system, therefore a matter of choice (or imposition)? A social phenomenon or one with a natural background? • A new phenomenon? Or the reoccurrence of an older one in a new more intensive form? Is it reversible? Understanding the above is necessary for the management of modern societies. 2

Concerning Globalization The term Globalization made its appearance in the 80 s and has been used widely ever since. There is no commonly accepted definition. It is defined through the literature that examines the phenomenon. • The Lexus and the Olive Tree, understanding Globalization T. L. Friedman (2000) • The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order Samuel P. Huntington (1996) • The End of History and the Last Man Francis Fukuyama (1993) Authors: political scientists, historians, journalists 3

Globalization: According to Thomas L. Friedman: • • Globalization is: “Globalization is not simply a trend or a fad but is, rather, an international system. It is the system that has now replaced the old cold war system…” It is not the first, but the second one. The first was in the period preceding World War I. “The period of globalization preceding WWI was quite similar to the one we are living today. ” • Occurrence: In 1990. Tearing down of the Berlin Wall and the end of the cold war. 4

Globalization: According to Thomas L. Friedman: • First period of Globalization: (~1860 -1914) • • Second period of Globalization: (1990 - ) • • Dominated by British pound, navy & culture Build around falling transportation costs Key technologies: railroad, steamship and the automobile Dominated by American dollar, military power & culture Build around falling telecommunication costs Key technologies: microchips, satellites, fiber optics, internet Differences: In intensity and extend “The first era of globalization shrank the world from a size “large” to a size “medium”, this era of globalization is shrinking the world from a size “medium” to a size “small”. 6

Globalization: According to Francis Fukuyama: Globalization is a global political-economical system of a global society of liberal republics (capitalistic economies), with mutual respect and co-dependence In Fukuyama’s neo-liberal and neo-Hegelian analysis he points to the following: • • This system constitutes “The End of History” meaning that there will not follow more advanced systems. History has or had “directiοnality”, with natural sciences playing a regulatory role. He argues: We entered this last stage of history with the collapse of the “existing socialism“ systems (1990) 7

Globalization: According to Samuel Huntington: He does not examine “Globalization” per se. He examines the political-economical system that was established after the end of the cold war and argues that the main confrontation that will take place on a global scale is that of “Clashes of Civilizations“ His theory became quite popular after September 11 th. From his impressive analysis, the following arise: • He dismisses the notion of “End of History” (Fukuyama). • We are in an unprecedented historical phase, both multi-cultural and multi-polar. • This clash of civilizations will dominate in the new century, but other systems will follow 8

Globalization: According to the “Left” view (Noam Chomsky, M. Hardt & A. Negri “Empire”. . . , etc) In general agrees with the characteristics of other treatments. In addition it argues: • • • Correlated with the economical and cultural domination of the American Imperialism. There exist alternative and better management solutions of the world. It occurred in 1990 with the end of the cold war 9

Concerning Globalization (ΙΙ): According to the most widely accepted view: Globalization is: • The dominating status quo after the Cold War. Main characteristics: • Political and Economical plexus covering and affecting the whole planet • Worldwide movement of goods, people, and information (in a capitalistic economy) • Science and Technology have lead us to this point Occurrence: • In 1990! The tearing down of the Berlin Wall and in general the end of the Cold War. 10

Concerning Globalization (ΙIΙ): Questions and problems: The criteria being used are unsatisfactory, do not answer the following: • How many Globalizations have occurred (Hellenistic, Roman, British, American. . . )? • Why the one we are experience is the last? Occurence: • It can not be associated with the end of the Cold War, unless Globalization is a synonym of American hegemony. Main Characteristics: • The worldwide transfer or information, goods and people is certainly important. It has been taking place since ancient times. However a threshold needs to be identified. KEY ISSUE: Identification of “thresholds”, “phase transitions”, “critical points” 11

Concerning Globalization (ΙV): CLAIM: Globalization is a new qualitative phase for human existence on this planet, characterised by objective physical attributes. It is important to seek characteristics of this “Phase Change” and “Thresholds” marking the transition to this change. • Which is the previous and which is the next phase? • In which quantities (Physical, Financial, Social) can we observe it; At which values (does the phase transition occur)? Remark: The worldwide transfer of information, goods and people is certainly important. It has been taking place since ancient times. However a Threshold needs to be identified. 12

Globalization: Scales and Characteristic Quantities 1. 2. 3. Distance Communication Energy We need to find in these quantities, thresholds that signify the transition to Globalization 13

Concerning Earth and Human Societies Physical parameters of the planet: How many people and with which kind of activity could this planet sustain? This question could serve as Ariadne's thread in our quest to find the characteristics of the “Phase Change” we seek. Planet Earth • • Diameter: 12 740 km Land Surface: 148 000 km 2 Solar Power intake: 89 PW Population: 6, 9 Billion 14

1. DISTANCE 15

Human Travel Horizon: • Distance of functional human travel. The distance that an average person can travel with the technological and financial means available to him. Chronically and Technologically defined Travel Horizon limit: Half of Earth’s Perimeter: ~20 000 km 16

Human Travel Horizon: The distance that an average person can travel with the available technological and financial means. Working Assumption Assume a 24 hour travel. Assume a financial limit equal to a week’s salary Examples • • • On foot – On horseback: 100 km Automobile or Train: 2 000 km Airplane: 25 000 km 17

Human Travel Air Transport limit (from Chicago, USA) 15 10 hours ho ur s Jet Engine rs 20 u ho 24 u ho rs 18

Human Travel The financial limit for Transport Travel Cost from New York to London (return) 19

1. Distance Threshold for Human Travel which signifies a transition to Globalization, was crossed by mankind, very recently, in the 1990 s. 20

2. Communication 21

Communication Information Transfer Horizon for Information Transmission: • The distance that a substantial amount of information can be transmitted with the given technological and financial means. Working Assumption Assume a 24 hour transmission period. Assume a cost limit equal to a day’s salary Amount of information: 50 Books ≈ an Encyclopedia (~ 10 Gbit) Technological limits • On foot or on Horseback: 100 km • Automobile or Train: 2 000 km • Airplane: 25 000 km • Electronically: ∞ 22

Communication Costs 23

Communication Technology and Communications Cost 24

Communication Cost of Transmitting Information 26

3. Energy & Power • • Energy Consumption Destructive Power 27

Energy & Power Energy Consumption Threshold Extremely Difficult Problem • Non-linearities • Related to the method of Energy production with social and technological restrictions • • Greenhouse effect Nuclear waste The Scale is set by Solar Energy intake and the tolerance of the ecosystem to tolerate deviations from it. 28

Energy & Power Incoming Solar Radiation 29

Energy & Power The Greenhouse Effect 30

Energy & Power Global Energy Balance • Incoming Solar Power ~ 0. 175 x 109 Gw = 175 Pw • • • About 1% (1500 Tw) powers wind activity Incoming Solar Power reaching Earth’s surface (ISP) ~ 168 W/m 2 Global Energy Consumption (2004) ~1. 5 x 104 Gw ( = 10 -4 Solar Power! ) 31

Energy & Power Energy Consumption Threshold Extremely Difficult Problem • Non-linearities • Related to the method of Energy production with social and technological restrictions • • Greenhouse effect Nuclear waste First rough approximation: Assume that it cannot exceed a fraction of the available wind power. Let us assume 10%. • • Global Power Limit 1. 5 x 105 GW = 150 TW Local Power Density limit 85 W/ m 2 (=0. 5 ISP) 32

Hurricanes Est. Energy: 66, 5 Pwh Power: 3 - 300 TW Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) 33

Energy & Power Consumption Threshold First rough approximation: Assume that it cannot exceed a fraction of the available wind power. Let us assume 10%. • • Global Power Limit: 1. 5 x 105 GW = 150 TW Local Power Density limit: 85 W/ m 2 (=0. 5 ISP) 34

Energy & Power Energy Consumption as a fraction of the Incoming Solar Energy 35

Energy & Power NYC: Power Consumption Local Limit 36

3 b. Desrtuctive power 37

Hiroshima Bomb = 0. 018 Mt 38

(Castle Romeo = 15 Mt) We have crossed the threshold of complete annihilation of our planet 39

Energy & Power Destructive Power/ Energy • • • 2 nd WW: 2 750 Gwh (= 2. 15 Mt TNT) Vietnam: 11 200 Gwh (= 8. 75 Mt TNT) Hiroshima Bomb = 0. 018 Mt Castle Romeo (US) = 15 Mt Tzar Bomba (USSR) = 60 Mt = 37 x 106 GWh= 37 PWh We have crossed this threshold! 40

Thresholds 1. Distance The threshold of Human Travel signifying a transition to Globalization, was crossed by mankind quite recently in the 1990 s. 2. Communication The threshold of Communication (information transmission) signifying a transition to Globalization, was crossed by mankind recently, in the 1980 s. 3. Energy Consumption The threshold of Energy Consumption signifying a transition to Globalization, was crossed by mankind in the 1970 s. 41

Management of Globalised Societies The first bad examples § § Environmental Management, Greenhouse Effect Management of Destructive Power 42

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Climate Change: Global Warming 44

Atmospheric Limit We have reached the limit of global tolerance for the change in our atmosphere’s composition. a Phase Change? • It is clear that for the first time in human history we have reached a point when we have changed the climate of our planet We must however point out that the Greenhouse effect does not offer a limit in Energy Consumption. Only in the production of certain gases and as a result the production of energy through specific processes (for example fossil fuel) Issues to be addressed: • Better understanding of the problem (research…) • Confront the problem (mitigation, adaptation) 45

Electricity Consumption 47

Ecological Footprint • The Ecological Footprint is a resource management tool that measures how much land water area a human population requires to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its wastes under prevailing technology. • Today, humanity's Ecological Footprint is over 23% larger than what the planet can regenerate. In other words, it now takes more than one year and two months for the Earth to regenerate what we use in a 48 single year.

Ecological Footprint 49

Ecological Footprint 50

Final Remarks 51

Final Remarks For the first time in human history we have the ability to: • Destroy or radically change the ecosystem we inhabit – – • With chosen destructive processes (nuclear or biological warfare ) Involuntary, e. g. Climate changes due to CO 2 emissions We have unquestionably exceeded the planetary scale in many parameters (e. g. communication and information transfer, power densities ) 53

Trinity TIME: July 16 1945, 5: 29: 45 A. M. (Mountain War Time) PLACE: Trinity Site Zero, Alamogordo Test Range, Jornada del Muerto desert, New Mexico USA

Final Remarks As citizens of this planet, as scientists what can we do? Living in a Globalized Earth • Education, Science and Society • Louis Hubert Lyautey Ø When his gardener objected when asked to plant a tree which would bare fruit after a hundred years, he said: “ We don’t have a moment to loose. You must plant it today! ” 55

Thank You! Helen & Larry, Thank You! My best wishes for the next challenge. 56

Effects of Global Warming 60

Ecological Footprint by HDI, nation and population Area that meets minimum criteria for sustainability 61

Climate Change: Rising Sea levels 62