Globalization climate change and energy crisis globalization as

Globalization climate change and energy crisis

globalization • as a result of world wide expansion of the industrial development model

We’ll focus on the intertwined process of: • World wide expansion of industrial economy model based on intensive use of oil • Mounting global warming for the most part a consequence of oil based economies, finally resulting in climate change

expansion • This expansion follows its ‘natural’ course, by penetrating all other kinds of economic arrangements • Serving its own needs • Also consciously promoted (or enforced) by WB, IMF, WTO and development aid agencies • Mainly professed and executed as common sense economics and world view

Energy use • Inherent to this model is the intensive use of fossil fuels, mainly oil • This oil based economy is everywhere; • Even most of world food production is globalized along oil intensive lines

Economic scarcity • The growing energy needs lead energy suppliers to an extensive search for oil • Today they cannot keep up with worldwide demand because of capacity limitations to exploit this raw material fully (drilling / refining)

Physical scarcity More oil exploitation and use will lead to physical scarcity: there is only a fixed amount of oil on this planet

Now some basic maths comes into play

Energy to produce energy • It takes a lot of oil to produce oil – the US case: • 1916: 1 barrel to recover 28 barrels • 1985: 1 barrel to recover 2 barrels • This ratio is still dropping

production peaking • • US production peaked in 1970 UK 2000/2001 Saudi Arabia will peak in 2015+ Worldwide 2006 -2015+

discovery peaking overall discoveries peaked in the 1960 s with just 1 new barrel of oil being discovered today for every 4 that is consumed

Peaking is not running out of oil, but oil will be pumped on an inexorably declining basis

Climate Change • IPCC consensus: climate change is ‘unequivocal’ and may bring ‘abrupt’ and ‘irreversable’ impacts • ‘humankind’s emissions of greenhouse gases are more than 90% likely to be the main cause’

Greenhouse gases greenhouse gases (GHG) = gases emitted by combustion of fossil fuels; they cause the atmosphere’s warming up (carbondioxide etc. )

from economy to climate change • With expanding (oil based) economy the use of oil expands, • and consequently greenhouse gas emissions, • greenhouse gases cause climate change for the largest part, • so climate change is ultimately connected to global economic expansion

GHG effects in the Caribbean • • Rising sea levels Major changes to coastlines Inundating lowlying areas Warming up of seawater energizes hurricanes • Etc.

Urgency to reverse the trend • IPCC: within a decade • Kyoto Protocol: international agreement to cut GHG emissions • EU and Davos: agree to cut GHG • US: universities, federal states, municipalities etc.

Best policies End the use of oil and other fossil fuels (WB admits but refuses to adapt lending policies) Built energy saving and nonfossil fuel economy

obstacles • Existing economic model, its practices and current ‘common sense’ economics and world view prevent wise policies to be practised

Model in real danger • Being inherently an oil based model while • Urgent need to cut GHG emissions • Inevitability that oil stocks deplete during this century • Another development path is urgently needed to manage this structure problem, but is another paradigm available?

Curacao geopolitics • World oil depletion is inevitable – will the last few drops be available to small markets of small island states? • Transition to sustainable and clean energy systems is inevitable and urgently needed, especially for small islands – our geopolitical challenge

Restructure energy system • Save energy on massive scale • New energy sources: sun, sea and wind power, also muscular strength • Restructure land use (avoid urban sprawls) • Restructure energy sector

Oil dependency and new dependency • Does the use of new energy systems lead to energy autonomy? • Most improbable, given our existing social, economic and political organization • Oil industry is buying in on renewables • Knowledge gap with industrial countries • Current lending policies of countries and development agencies

What to do – our geopolitics • Invest in and develop own sustainable and clean energy systems (cooperation with SIDS) • Disconnect energy sector from refinery and CUC (BOO)

Meet energy challenge by strengthening our society from within • maximize energy autonomy for citizens • decentralize and maximize household/neigborhood ownership of small energy systems • define new tasks for energy sector to sustain abovementioned new policies

Amigu di Tera / Friends of the Earth Curaçao Lloyd Narain