Globalization and Fragmentation in a New World Order

Globalization and Fragmentation in a New World Order 1991 -Present

Globalization and Fragmentation � The end of the Cold War came as a shock to most and optimism was the prevailing sentiment beginning in 1989. ◦ Best illustrated by Francis Fukuyama’s work “The End of History, ” which is idealistic and upbeat over the long term. � Central point: humankind’s political and social evolution has an endpoint which is the kind of democratic, liberal, capitalist system and society that the Western European powers are closest to achieving. � Other supporting evidence includes worldwide economic liberalization; the failures of monarchy, fascism, and then communism; and the spread of Western ideals and culture.

� Despite the optimism, globalization walked hand in hand with fragmentation following the end of the Cold War. ◦ Most prominent view: Samuel P. Huntington in his work “The Clash of Civilizations. ” � Conflicts of the future will not be economic or ideological but cultural as globalization brings people into contact. � People from different cultures can be motivated by: � Opposing worldviews, � Ethical beliefs, and � Behavioral standards.

“The West versus the Rest” � Huntington’s conclusions also build on the phrase “the West versus the rest, ” with the most striking cultural divide being Western culture versus Islamic civilization. ◦ Thus, globalization and fragmentation, as well as conflict and cooperation, have continued to dominate the post-Cold War landscape.

A New World Order? � In 1991, President George Bush envisioned a system wherein states would cooperate against common threats, declaring the establishment of a “new world order”; ◦ The post-Cold War world would be less confrontational.

� Bipolarity end, came to an ◦ Replaced by a system which the U. S. was unchallenged militarily. � Some states welcomed this situation, ◦ But larger regional rivals (e. g. , Russia, China, and India) were not as enthusiastic.

War in the Gulf � Following the eight-year struggle with Iran, Iraq owed substantial debt to Gulf Arab states; ◦ Iraq also possessed the fourth largest conventional army in the world (roughly equal to the size of Kuwait’s entire population). � In an attempt to gain a dominant position in the Persian Gulf, Iraq invaded annexed its neighbor, Kuwait, in 1990.

� The naked aggression shocked the international community. ◦ U. S. took the lead in forming an international coalition, � Supported by UN Security Council Resolutions, to expel Saddam Hussein’s forces from Kuwait. � The victory was swift; ◦ 1 st phase consisted of unprecedented air bombardment and ◦ 2 nd phase consisted of a ground campaign lasting approximately one hundred hours.

Operation Desert Storm

� The offensive was halted before taking Baghdad or deposing Saddam Hussein ◦ Would be completed in 2003. � The defeat led to a system of UN inspections in an attempt to verify Iraq’s disposal of its WMD capabilities, and the seeds of future conflict were planted.

The European Union � In 1993, the European Community became the European Union (EU), consisting of a single market for capital, goods, services, and labor; ◦ European Parliament with powers to pass legislation binding on all members; an executive body; and ◦ A Court of Justice.

� In 2002, the Euro became legal tender in most member states and ◦ In 2003, the EU expanded. � The road traveled by the EU has not been without its potholes, ◦ Several countries delayed entrance or rejected the acceptance of the common currency; ◦ Critics charge that its rules and regulations fail to consider the concerns of individual countries, provinces, or local communities. � Regardless of its problems, the EU has provided the political and economic framework for an unprecedented era of peace and prosperity for its members.

U. S. Economic Hegemony Endures � In the post-Cold War period, the U. S. role shifted from that of a traditional hegemon to steward of an increasingly integrated international economic system. ◦ U. S. economic hegemony derived its dominance in global trade and finance from the size of its markets and from the role of the dollar as a reserve currency and unit of international exchange. ◦ The principal role of the United States in the IMF, the World Bank, and Group of 8, also promote its continued hegemony.

� Other countries’ misfortunes and obstacles to growth contributed to U. S. dominance. ◦ Germany and Japan each experienced social, political, and economic setbacks that undermined their competitiveness. ◦ China and Russia continue to have serious structural weaknesses in their economies; � China’s economy is developing rapidly but is based on labor and is handicapped by logistics and corruption; � Russia also suffers from corruption and the long-term effects of stultifying Soviet policies.

Enduring Regional and Internal Conflicts � The Middle East ◦ Problems continue to exist with the future of Iraq and concerns over containing Iran.

� Secret negotiations in Oslo, Norway, in 1993 resulted in the PLO and Israel recognizing each other’s legitimacy for the first time; led to a peace treaty between Israel and Jordan in 1994. Extremists on both sides, determined to destroy the peace process, made subsequent agreements impossible to implement, and in 2000, the Al-Aqsa Intifada began in response to Ariel Sharon’s visit to a Muslim -controlled area sacred to both Muslims and Jews. � Conflict escalated in 2002 as Palestinian �

◦ Conflict escalated in 2002 as Palestinian groups launched more suicide bomb attacks and Israel responded with major incursions into the West Bank and Gaza; the same year, the United States, Russia, the UN, and the EU formed the “Quartet” and developed a “road map” for peace. ◦ Yasser Arafat died in 2004, creating a possible opportunity for progress as Mahmoud Abbas was elected president of the Palestinian National Authority. ◦ In 2005, Israel unilaterally disengaged from Gaza, seen by some as a positive step forward and others as a breach of security. ◦ In 2006, Hamas won a majority of seats in the Palestinian parliamentary elections and infighting began between the two Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, culminating in the bloody takeover of Gaza by Hamas in June 2007.

South Asia � International relations in South Asia are dominated by the conflict between India and Pakistan; the sources of instability stem from the colonial legacy, the efforts of regional states to consolidate control, and ethnic and religious animosity.

� In Britain’s hasty withdrawal from India after World War II (see Chapter 5), borders were drawn that left many Muslims in India and Hindus in Pakistan; the most contentious area was Kashmir, over which India and Pakistan have repeatedly clashed.

� Although both had previously admitted to possessing the capability to produce nuclear weapons (with India conducting a test in 1974), 1998 brought a series of nuclear tests by both sides.

� � Debate continues over whether this situation creates stability because neither will be willing to risk a nuclear war (deterrence theory) or if this increases the risk of nuclear destruction due to a potential inability to control conflict. Peace talks began in 2004 (and continued through 2007) with the aim of improving all aspects of the India-Pakistan relationship, including the conflict over Kashmir.

East Asia � � � On the Korean peninsula, tensions appeared to be decreasing following the end of the Cold War, as North and South Korea conducted direct talks and both were admitted to the UN. Tensions rose again, however, in 1994 after North Korea refused to allow international inspections of its plutonium reprocessing plant and threatened to withdraw from the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Tensions were temporarily defused by the Agreed Framework, through which the United States, Japan, and South Korea would provide North Korea assistance with its civilian nuclear power program.

� � The situation became worse, however, in 1998 when the North tested a “space launch vehicle” that could be used as a longrange missile. By 2002 it became apparent that neither the United States nor North Korea had fulfilled its obligations under the Agreed Framework; tensions rose and as North Korea defiantly restarted its production of nuclear material and in 2003 withdrew from the NPT.

� � Several rounds of six-party talks (North Korea, the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and China) produced an agreement in 2007 when North Korea agreed to close its main nuclear reactor in exchange for fuel. Underlying tension between China and Taiwan is a continuing issue; despite increasing trade between the United States and China, tensions on strategic issues remain, especially concerning China’s ambitions concerning Taiwan and China’s nuclear and missile forces.

Collective Security � � Several crises in the post. Cold War world highlighted the need for effective, unified international responses when diplomatic efforts at conflict resolution failed. Yugoslavia fragmented into ethnic-based republics after a bloody civil war. ◦ The UN underwent a disastrous intervention in Bosnia in 1995. ◦ Although reluctant to do so, the United States led a NATO military intervention against Serbian forces in 1999 to halt violence in Kosovo.

� Somalia was being torn apart by competing warlords who were using famine as a weapon against the population. ◦ The UN attempted to intervene with a small humanitarian operation, which failed, prompting the United States to lead an international task force to provide humanitarian assistance. ◦ Anxious to expand the mission to nation-building, the UN pressured the United States to redirect its mission to capture or kill Mogadishu warlord Mohamed Farah Aideed; in their efforts, two Blackhawk helicopters were shot down and eighteen American soldiers were killed.

� Genocide in Rwanda in 1994 culminated in nearly a million deaths and demonstrated a profound failure of collective action. ◦ The trigger for the violence was the assassination of Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana, who had ruled Rwanda under the banner of “Hutu Power. ” ◦ The Hutu government incited mobs to slaughter Tutsis and moderate Hutus. ◦ The genocide came to an end when the Rwanda Patriotic Front fought its way into Kigali and assumed control of the government under the leadership of Paul Kagame.

� The genocide in the Darfur region of Sudan has also demonstrated the international community’s toothlessness in dealing with humanitarian crises. ◦ Forces of the Sudanese government and ethnic militia have undertaken a systematic campaign of “ethnic cleansing” to crush rebel forces in Darfur. ◦ The African Union and the UN have taken actions to help the people of Sudan, but it remains to be seen if these actions will curb the violence.

� Despite the success of collective security in the Gulf War, its limitations have been apparent in the post-Cold War world as several difficulties have become clear. ◦ The “free-rider” problem: many countries used the expectation of international action as an excuse to avoid acting themselves (e. g. , in the former Yugoslavia, neither the United States nor European states were willing to undertake the burden of intervention, instead waiting for the other to act).

◦ National sovereignty: UN peacekeeping forces can only enter a country with the permission of the state in which they will operate, and without that consent military action would have to be authorized by the Security Council (a step that has only been taken twice by the UN, against North Korea in 1950 and Iraq in 1991); thus if states are serious about collective security, they must be willing to violate the principles of national sovereignty, something most states are reluctant to do. ◦ Despite these problems, collective security has not been without its successes: missions to provide food, medicine, and other basic needs to nations hit by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004; UN-managed peaceful democratic transitions in Namibia and Cambodia.

The Terror of September 11 � The Terror of September 11 ◦ On September 11, 2001, hijackers crashed two jet airliners into the World Trade Center in New York City and another into the Pentagon in Washington, D. C. ; a fourth was brought down by passengers in rural Pennsylvania. � � ◦ War in Iraq � � � ◦ A network of Islamic terrorist organizations led by Osama bin Laden, known as Al Qaeda, was responsible (this was not their first successful attack as they were responsible for attacks in Saudi Arabia, Kenya and Tanzania, and Yemen). The response was a multinational military campaign against the Taliban in Afghanistan (which had been a base of operations for Al Qaeda) and a global “war on terror” that would rely on diplomacy, law enforcement, intelligence, and military operations; the response was criticized for failing to deal with the “root causes” of terrorism. In 2002, George W. Bush characterized Iraq, Iran, and North Korea as the “axis of evil”; using evidence to indicate that Saddam Hussein had not complied with UN Security Council resolutions to disarm, the United States (with the support of Great Britain and “the coalition of the willing”) ousted Saddam Hussein from power in 2003 (without UN approval). Saddam Hussein was found at the end of 2003, tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity in 2006, and was executed on December 30, 2006. Although the goal of toppling Hussein’s regime was attained quickly, the long-term effects are still uncertain; the challenges of building democracy in Iraq are formidable and a complex set of insurgencies and terrorist movements continue to wreak havoc on coalition soldiers and Iraqi civilians. Despite the toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hussein in Iraq, terrorists continue to shock the world with high death tolls; Great Britain, Indonesia, Spain, and Egypt have all been targets of significant terrorist acts since the inception of the War on Terror.

� Conclusion ◦ This chapter has demonstrated that understanding the post -Cold War world is a difficult undertaking, not only for world citizens but for leaders as well. ◦ Realists, liberals, and constructivists would view the post-Cold War era in different ways.