GLOBAL WARMING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND EVOLUTION GLOBAL WARMING

GLOBAL WARMING, GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND EVOLUTION

GLOBAL WARMING WILL DEMAND GLOBAL GOVERNANCE l In the same way that World Wars evoked primitive forms of global governance – World War I called forth the League of Nations, – World War II called forth the United Nations

GLOBAL WARMING IS LIKE WORLD WAR IN RELATION TO GLOBAL GOVERNANCE BECAUSE: l Its prevention requires the regulation of Nations – to stop them pursing their interests at the expense of others. l This requires a higher-level system that controls all Nations.

THE HIGHER-LEVEL SYSTEM MUST BE MORE POWERFUL THAN NATIONS SO THAT: l it can impose binding constraints on Nations and on multi-national corporations; l it can act contrary to the interests of individual Nations – and is therefore able to regulate in the interests of the planet.

SELF-REGULATION, AGREEMENTS THAT ARE NOT INDEPENDENTLY ENFORCEABLE, AND WIN-WIN APPROACHES ARE NOT VIABLE ALTERNATIVES TO GG l Fundamental conflicts of interest between Nations makes consensus on details unlikely; – Compromises and trade-offs could be fatal; – Self-sacrifice by a Nation is likely to be temporary and politically unstable. – and unilateral action cannot solve the problem.

GLOBAL WARMING CREATES FUNDAMENTAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST: l some Nations will be significantly disadvantaged by restricting emissions. Barring unforeseen technological developments: – the US will have to massively decrease its emissions, significantly reducing its standard of living; – developing Nations such as China and India will have to forgo the standard of living they see on US television. l In the absence of global governance, the best strategy for many will be to free-ride on the efforts of others.

KYOTO EXEMPLIFIED THESE FUNDAMENTAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST: l only Nations that did not stand to lose much ratified Kyoto, such as: – European countries with declining industrial sectors that are effectively exporting emissions to China; – developing Nations that are unrestricted by the Kyoto agreement; – Nations that never intended to implement the targets. l Nations that could lose significantly did not sign up (the US and Australia).

GLOBAL GOVERNANCE IS THE FINAL STEP IN A LONG SEQUENCE OF DIRECTIONAL EVOLUTION ON EARTH l The evolution of life on earth has progressively produced cooperative organisations of wider and wider scale.

EARLIER STEPS IN THIS LONG SEQUENCE OF DIRECTIONAL EVOLUTION INCLUDE: l governed collectives of molecular processes produced simple cells; l governed communities of simple cells produced the composite eukaryote cell; l governed organisations of cells produced multi-cellular organisms; l governed groups of organisms produced animal societies.

THIS UNMISTAKEABLE TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH HUMANS: l The next step is obvious: the formation of a unified and cooperative planetary society. l Once a global society emerges, the scale of cooperative organisation on earth will have increased over a million, billion times since life began. l families teamed up to form multi-family bands, they teamed up to form tribal societies, and repetitions of this process produced agricultural communities, city states, nations, empires and now multi-national groupings such as the EU.

AT EACH STEP, GOVERNANCE ALIGNS THE INTERESTS OF INDIVIDUALS WITH THE INTERESTS OF THE COLLECTIVE l Governance ensures that an individual captures whatever effects it has on the collective. l So an individual will be advantaged when it helps the collective, and will be disadvantaged when it harms it. l Under these conditions, even a self-interested individual will treat the other as self (i. e. will apply the ‘Golden Rule’). l Effective global governance will ensure it is in the interests of nations and corporations to mitigate global warming.

PAST EVOLUTION SHOWS THAT GLOBAL WARMING CAN BE PREVENTED WITHOUT RELIANCE ON THE IMPOSSIBLE l i. e. without reliance on the hope that all people, all corporations, and all nations will abandon their own immediate self-interest.

GLOBAL WARMING WILL DEMAND BROAD GLOBAL GOVERNANCE l It will have to deal with the distribution of economic opportunities across Nations (these will be strongly influenced by the ceilings placed on carbon emissions). l Effective global governance will require the implementation of effective governance at the National level. l Global enforcement and dispute resolution processes will be necessary.

A KEY CHALLENGE WILL BE TO GROW FORMS OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE THAT MAXIMISE THE FREEDOM OF INDIVIDUALS AND NATIONS l The governance will need to be highly flexible, responsive (democratic) and evolvable. – it must impose the minimum constraints necessary to prevent destructive competition and to enable cooperation. l Noting that without global governance, global warming will severely undermine freedom.

EVOLUTIONARY AWAKENING WILL ENERGISE SUPPORT FOR GLOBAL GOVERNANCE TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARMING l Individuals will realise that by supporting the development of a sustainable and cooperative planetary society, they can consciously contribute to the advancement of the evolutionary process on earth – and evolutionary knowledge shows us how to organise a planetary society successfully, and avoid past failures like the League of Nations and the UN.

FOR DISCUSSION John Stewart jes 999@tpg. com. au