GLOBAL WARMING AND SEA LEVEL RISE PUBLIC DISCOURSE

GLOBAL WARMING AND SEA LEVEL RISE: PUBLIC DISCOURSE VS. THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Dr Harun Rashid Emeritus Professor Department of Geography and Earth Science University of Wisconsin—La Crosse, WI, USA

OBJECTIVES 1. To study newspaper roles in public discourse on global warming, climate change, and sea level rise 2. To review the coverage of Sustainability, Adaptation, and Mitigation (SAM) initiatives in newspaper discourse on ameliorative policies 3. To assess the nature and extent of media amplification of global warming and climate change in newspaper reports

RESEARCH METHODS Electronic resources: Pro. Quest and EBSCOHost Newspapers analyzed: 14 (6 US, 2 Canadian, 3 Australian, 1 NZ, 1 UK, 1 India) Reports analyzed: 40 (target: 200) Discourse analysis: Microsoft WORD count Total numbers of words analyzed: 30, 000

SUMMARY OF DISCOURSE ANALYSIS: Global warming and climate change Nature of discourse Coverage by all newspapers (Percent of the total text) Scientific elements 18 Physical impacts 11 Socioeconomic impacts 13 Mitigation policies 41 Public and media amplification 17 Likert-scale rating of amplification 1. 39

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Temperature trend lines

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: IPCC data on temperature anomaly

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Natural vs. anthropogenic greenhouse effect Astronomical factors Natural greenhouse gases: • Water vapour • Carbon dioxide • Methane Anthropogenic greenhouse gases: • Carbon dioxide • Methane • nitrous oxide • CFCs • Ozone (Ground level )

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Sunspot activities

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Solar flares

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Computer simulations

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Carbon dioxide pollution

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Polluting countries

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Forest fire in the US West

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Forest fire in the Okanagan Valley

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Drought in Kenya

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Floating icebergs

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Collapsing Antarctic Ice Shelves

MITIGATION: Emission reductions

MITIGATION: Emission reductions

MITIGATION: Carbon sequestration

MITIGATION: Iron fertilization

MITIGATION: Iron fertilization sites

MITIGATION: Algal bloom due to iron fertilization

MITIGATION: Geo-engineering in the stratosphere

SUMMARY OF DISCOURSE ANALYSIS: Impact of global warming on sea-level rise Nature of discourse Coverage by all newspapers (Percent of the total text) Scientific elements 14 Physical impacts 15 Social impacts 8 Mitigation policies 40 Media amplification 23 Amplification: Likert Scale Rating 2. 58

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Recent sea level rise

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: IPCC projections on sea level rise IPCC FIRST ASSESSMENT (1990): Sea level rise by 2100: Conservative estimate: 1 m rise (+3 C) Extreme scenario: 3 m rise (+5. 5 C) IPCC 4 th ASSESSMENT (2007): Sea level rise by 2100: Conservative estimates: 0. 18 to 0. 59 m rise Thermal expansion contributes 75% of sea level rise

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Impacts of sea-level rise in Bangladesh IPCC estimate (UNEP Map): • Nightmare scenario for Bangladesh: • 15 million people displaced from 17, 000 km 2 • Sea level rise accelerated by land subsidence

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Accelerated river-bank erosion in Bangladesh

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Coastal erosion in Florida

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Tuvalu Island being threatened by rising sea level

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Tuvalu highway inundated by breaking waves

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Male, capital of the Maldives at risk

MITIGATION: Coastal polders and forest expansion in Bangladesh

MITIGATION: Delta sedimentation

MITIGATION: Elevated foundations of homes

MITIGATION: Resettlement of climate refugees in Tuvalu

MITIGATION: Resettlement of climate refugees in Bangladesh

MITIGATION: Resettlement of displaced population from river-bank erosion in Bangladesh

CONCLUSION: THE WAY AHEAD Newspaper discourse on science communication Sustainable mitigation measures: SAM initiatives Adaptive management