Global Trends Global Financial Crisis Source UNDESA Global
Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis Source: UN/DESA
Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis Global GDP Growth (Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized) Source: IMF
Global Trends: FOOD CRISIS Source: FAO
EARLY WARNING INDICATORS A. FLASH QUARTERLY GDP (NOW-CASTING) The First Estimate of Overall Economic Activities Imputation for the Last Month of the Quarter Timeliness 10 Days After end of the Ref. Period
QUARTERLY FLASH GDP
ACTUAL VS. FLASH GDP
EARLY WARNING INDICATORS B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP o o o Calculated using Production Approach One Month Timeliness Utilization of Monthly Short Term Indictors such as: ü Administrative Data ü Price Statistics ü Monthly Survey Results ü Monthly Financial Statements of the Large Enterprises
EARLY WARNING INDICATORS B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP Better timeliness Less accuracy, but acceptable Availability of strong monthly set of information Strengthen the Flash Quarterly GDP Strengthen the high frequency indicators
EARLY WARNING INDICATOR C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS Need for quick, broad indicator for overall economic activity for immediate future Extracting signals and producing estimates for a better understanding of cyclical movements This work is currently under construction Weighting system will be derived
EARLY WARNING INDICATOR C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
CHALLENGES ENCOUNTERED § § § Rallying for resources Timeliness, periodicity and availability of high frequency indicators – historic emphasis annual data Composite Leading Indicator § Lack of sufficient indicators § Methodological improvements in existing data
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