Global policy discourses and local implementation Sendai Framework

Global policy discourses and local implementation Sendai Framework for DRR and CBDRM in Pakistan IPAID, Yonsei Universdity, 20/03/2018 Hyungguen Park, Ph. D. , Technical specialist (disaster resilience), UNDP Myanmar

2 CONTENTS 1. The shifting paradigm on global policy of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) 1. 1. Key ideas: DRR as a human rights issue and integration of different discourses and practices 1. 2. Global Assessment Report 1. 3. The components of the shifting paradigm 1. 4. Four priorities for action 2. Local interpretation 2. 1. The gaps of discourse and practice 2. 2 Contextualising the gaps 2. 3. Those in urgent need are with least capacity to change 2. 4. The rationale for local translation of the SFDRR: DRR and CCA as societal change 3. Politics of disaster towards transformative adaptation 3. 1. Politics of disaster: beyond resilience 3. 2. A multi-focal analytical framework: expectation, idea and institution 3. 3. DRR as an entry point of risk-informed development 03 11 12

3 Two key ideas and three issues informing the presentation: • Two ideas: DRR as a human rights issue integrated with other practice and discourse ü Disaster Risk Reduction as a human rights issue “Natural hazards are not disasters in and of themselves. Whether or not they become disasters depends on the exposure of a community, and its vulnerability and resilience, all factors that can be addressed by human (including State) action. A failure (by governments and other actors) to take reasonable preventative action to reduce exposure and vulnerability and to enhance resilience, as well as to provide mitigation, is therefore a human rights issue” (HRC, 2014). ü Integration of discourse and practice of climate change, hazards risk and development The compelling need for social change has encouraged societies to reconfigure the relationship between, and the discourse of, development, climate change and environmental disaster risk (Schipper and Pelling, 2006). Integration of discourse and practice of SDGs, Sendai Framework for DRR and Paris Agreement • Three issues: emerging risk impacts, climate change uncertainty and mispricing of disaster risk ü Most disasters that could happen have not happened yet: hidden, yet emergent risks Between 1980 and 2012, 42 million life years were lost in internationally reported disasters each year. (The concept of “human life years” provides a better representation of disaster impact, as it provides a metric describing the time required to produce economic development and social progress. ) Economic losses from disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, cyclones and flooding are now reaching an average of US$250 billion to US$300 billion each year. Future losses(expected annual losses) are now estimated at US$314 billion in the built environment alone. ü Climate change will increase expected future losses: increasingly uncertain and additional risks Through changing temperatures, precipitation and sea levels, amongst other factors, global climate change is already modifying hazard levels and exacerbating disaster risks. ü The continuous “mispricing of risk” threatens our future: political responsibilities The disaster impacts are rarely attributed to the past socio-political decisions that generate the current disaster risks. This results from a apolitical, exogenous perception of disaster risk. Sources: Human Rights Council (2014) ‘Promotion and Protection of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples in Disaster Risk Reduction, Prevention and Preparedness Initiatives’, 27 th Session: Agenda item 5, United Nations General Assembly, New York, pp 4. , Schipper, L. , & Pelling, M. (2006). Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration. Disasters, 30(1), 19 -38. https: //www. unisdr. org/we/inform/publications/42809

A paradigm Shift in Disaster Risk Management (discourse and practice) Risk Perception Old paradigm HFA (2005 -2015) SFDRR (2015 -2030) Exogenous Endogenous Identification of Need for effective risk problem response and recovery Need for disaster risk reduction Risk is embedded in development processes (with a focus on underlying factors) Main policy tools Contingency plan, emergency drill Early warning system, DRR investment such as levee construction Land use planning, risk proof investment, eco-system management Required knowledge n/a Risk and loss assessment Risk, loss and socio-economic impact assessments Actors DM agency DRM agencies within different levels of government, various stakeholders (public, private, NGOs) More involvement of other stakeholders, especially private sector and local level actors Link n/a Millennium Development Goals (Post-2015) Sustainable Development Goals, Climate Change Policy (Paris Agreement) 4 Source: Modified from UNISDR (2014) Progress and Challenges in Disaster Risk Reduction: A contribution towards the development of policy indicators for the Post-2015 Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR).

Sendai Framework for DRR: One goal, seven “measurable” targets and four priorities for action • One global goal: Prevent new and reduce existing disaster risk through the implementation of integrated and inclusive economic, structural, legal, social, health, cultural, educational, environmental, technological, political and institutional measures…and thus strengthen resilience • Seven global targets (note that the HFA had no such measurable targets): • Four priorities for action ü Priority one: Understanding disaster risk ü Priority two: Strengthening disaster risk governance to integrate governance issues across the disaster cycle from preparedness to response and recovery ü Priority three: Investing in DRR for Resilience ü Priority four: Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to Build Back Better in recovery, rehabilitation Source: UNISDR (2015 b), “Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction 2015 -2030”, available at: www. unisdr. org/files/42926_090315 wcdrrpspepublicationfinalonli. pdf and reconstruction 5

Four priorities for action: 6 Priority one – Understanding disaster risk (a firm support for evidence based policy making through call for structured data collection) “Environmental” hazard • Natural & physical • Episodic (catastrophic) & everyday (chronic) • Urban, rural, semi-urban • Different scales of time & space • Direct & indirect impact • Intensity and frequency • Climate change (uncertainty & ambiguity) Human Vulnerability • Social (individuals, groups, communities, and their social, economic and political systems) • Physical (infrastructure, buildings, houses, etc. ) – still sociopolitical decision making Key message: Developmental failure can lead to the construction and accumulation of new disaster risk; and vice versa. Then understanding disaster risk should be carried out in the context of development.

Not “Natural” but “Environmental” hazards: …because it is difficult to dismantle “natural hazards from other sources of threat to life and livelihood – especially technological hazards and social hazards of violence and war” (Burton, Kates and White, 1993; Blaikie et al, 1994; Tobin and Months, 1997; Mitchell, 1999, cited in Pelling, 2003). http: //www. citylab. com/weather/2012/09/worst-polluted-playgroundsworld/3395/ http: //haikugirl. me/2011/03/12/march-2011 -earthquake-tsunami-in-japan/ http: //blogs. agu. org/landslideblog/2011/08/31/garbage-dump-landslide-in-the-philippines/ http: //www. nydailynews. com/news/world/quake-terrorizes-pakistan-india-afghanistan-2005 -article-1. 2369675 Source: Pelling, M. (2003). The vulnerability of cities: natural disasters and social resilience. Earthscan. 7

8 Evolving concept of Vulnerability: predecessors and successors Vulnerability as absence of entitlements Natural hazards (=prob. ×impact) Human/political ecology Pressure and release (PAR) model Direct flow of ideas Sustainable livelihoods and vulnerability to poverty Vulnerability, adaptation and resilience of social-ecological systems Indirect flow of ideas Transformative adaptation: risk society thesis, human security, changing social contracts Source: Modified from Adger, W. Neil. "Vulnerability. " Global environmental change 16. 3 (2006): 272. and Pelling, Mark. Adaptation to climate change: from resilience to transformation. Routledge (2010).

Four priorities for action: Priority two – Strengthening disaster risk governance to integrate governance issues across the disaster cycle from preparedness to response and recovery • • To mainstream and integrate disaster risk reduction within and across all sectors To adopt and implement national and local disaster risk reduction strategies To conduct DRM capacity assessment: technical, financial and administrative Necessary mechanisms and incentives to ensure high levels of compliance with existing safetyenhancing provisions of sectoral laws and regulations To follow up, periodically assess and publically report on progress on national and local plans To assign clear roles and tasks to community representatives To establish government coordination forums To empower local authorities Four priorities for action: Priority three – Investing in DRR for Resilience • • • It is an opportunity for enhancing social resilience and hence sustainable development!! Public and private investment in disaster prevention and reduction through structural and nonstructural measures are essential to enhance social resilience of persons, communities and countries and their assets Resources allocation Risk transfer and insurance, risk sharing Public and private investments in critical facilities (schools, hospitals and physical infrastructures) – building better! Mainstreaming of disaster risk assessments into land-use policy development and implementation Four priorities for action: Priority four – Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to Build Back Better in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction • To integrate post-disaster reconstruction into the economic and social sustainable development of the affected areasserting the opportunity disaster risk management offers for sustainable development gains. • In practice, it might not be easy to put into practice this priority, particularly for societies where the status quo is reinforced through discursive distortion and ideological stability by alliances and winners of past development • If building back better requires addressing the underlying causes of disaster risk, it also refers to challenging the status quo of society. Here, “better” has normative connotation that the value-neutral resilience theory has less to offer for interpreting Priority four. 9

10 Priority four - Missed learning opportunities: Flood shelters built in after the 2010 floods, abandoned and destroyed by the 2012 floods, Jaffarabad, Balochistan Source: Park, Hyungguen. Beyond Preparedness: Development impact of Community Based Disaster Risk Management in Pakistan, CPRU, UNDP Pakistan, Islamabad. (2017), available at: http: //www. preventionweb. net/publications/view/52566

11 Gaps of discourse and practice “[M]any of these commitments in law and policy have not been translated into real priorities and investments. A review of the qualitative information in HFA progress reports highlights a divorce between discourse and [local] practice and a continued focus on disaster management and corrective risk management rather than on addressing the underlying drivers. Although they include language consistent with prospective risk management, most new laws continue to focus largely on disaster management” (UNISDR, 2015: 120; emphases and parentheses added. Then what about the SFDRR? • “One of the reasons for the HFA not having a greater impact at the local level is that it failed to build on local level knowledge and capacities. The SFDRR does talk about the capacities of communities and about needing to blend scientific information with local knowledge. But, the actions in the framework are overwhelmingly top-down with very little emphasis on governance mechanisms to place communities in the decision-making seat. ” • Contextualising the discourse-practice gaps • How do the gaps of discourse and practice matter for local interpretation and application of the SFDRR? ü Priority one – social production of risk knowledge, dominance of particular research paradigms and lack of trans-interdisciplinary approaches, lack of a knowledge development and sharing system etc. ü Priority two – political stability, cohesion among different classes, ethnicities, genders and generations, weak government, no autonomy, etc. ü Priority three – competing priorities, other external and internal threats (terrorism, war, inequality, etc. ) This does not sound realistic for societies in great need of material and political stability. ü Priority four – strong vested interests, corruption, lack of partnership linked to other priorities Source: UNISDR (2015). Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR).

12 Those (individuals, communities and countries) in urgent need of change tend to lack the essential capacity to (bring about) change • • • Unfortunately, those communities/societies in which “environmental hazards” are evidently most prevalent (for example, as a result of unplanned urban development and limping modernisations) are those in which the shifting ideas and new conceptual understandings of DRR are most rarely employed to redirect their development paths. Thus, ironically those who need transformative change most are unlikely to afford such costly change. Normative issues such as procedural justice and inequality of various types are taken crucial for socio-political processes such as DRR and CCA. AS a result, DRR and CCA are increasingly taken as an opportunity for societal change. But, change in what? In what way? Whose participation? For what rationale? Is incremental change enough? The importance of a disaster politics perspective comes to the fore. Politics of disaster: beyond resilience DRR as an opportunity of transformative societal change • • Resilience theory such as complex adaptive systems prioritieses articulation of the causality running from certain characteristics of institutional arrangements (i. e. self-organizing, diversity, openness, flexibility and feedback loops) to resilience outcomes. It provides invaluable insights to what constitute a resilient system (Berkes, 2007, Bruneau et al. 2003, Buikstra et al. 2010, Norris et al. 2008, Tierney and Bruneau 2007, Walker et al. 2004, cited in Park, 2014). Lacking the historical, structural and normative perspectives, however, they stop short of dealing with the contextual reasons why novel policy ideas such as those of the SFDRR and SDGs bring about unevenly effectual and discursively different outcomes across place and time. Thus, local translation of the global policy discourses such as the SFDRR requires more than a descriptive perspective. Politics of disaster: a social process by which a disaster (and intangible disaster risk) plays an “ideational magnifier” through which to uncover and reveal institutional vacuums and often invisible yet close discursive and material relationships. Source: Park, Hyungguen. Politics of disaster in the post-developmental state: Seoul and Jeju, Korea. Diss. King's College London, 2014.

13 Disasters and deliberate change assumed to equally serve the discursive change Pre-disaster and preintervention discursive space Newly formed discursive space Disaster Interventions of different dimensions and levels in which social expectation, institutions and discourses might change Notes: 1. Each circle refers to a public discursive space (both formal and informal) in which ideas are formed, delivered, mediated and negotiated; 2. Change in a size of space indicates change in the volume, regularity and significance of existing and new values to be dealt with; 3. Overlaps denote that previously invisible, yet existing linkages among different human realms emerge as critical dimensions for research and project on disaster risk, and in particular roles and responsibilities of different stakeholders of DRR can be articulated 4) this model can be applied to different scales of governance system (from village to global). Source: Park, Hyungguen. Beyond Preparedness: Development impact of Community Based Disaster Risk Management in Pakistan, CPRU, UNDP Pakistan, Islamabad. (2017), available at: http: //www. preventionweb. net/publications/view/52566

DRR as an entry point of sustainable development Deliberate change Source: Park, Hyungguen. Beyond Preparedness: Development impact of Community Based Disaster Risk Management in Pakistan, CPRU, UNDP Pakistan, Islamabad. (2017), available at: http: //www. preventionweb. net/publications/view/52566 14

Local perception of hazards 15 “The intensity and frequency of the Ghulam Muhayuddin, 75, male, village Goldoor, Chitral, Pakistan consecutive heavy rains that led to the flash floods in Chitral in july to August, 2015 were exceptional. Since my childhood, I have witnessed many flash floods in most of the villages in Chitral. Floods are not new to many of our villages here. Over the last ten years or so, however, the situation has changed altogether. I have never seen this frequent and intensive rainfall in my life. ”

Trend in episodic disasters triggered by natural hazards in Pakistan 16 Occurrence of episodic disasters 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 Occurrence 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 5 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 7 4 5 4 3 3 2 1 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 19 79 19 78 19 77 19 76 19 75 19 74 19 73 19 68 19 67 19 19 65 0 Year Note: Disasters include those triggered by meteorological, climatological, hydrological, biological, and geophysical events only. Resource: EM-DAT, available at http: //www. emdat. be/advanced_search/index. html

Trend in episodic disasters triggered by natural hazards in Pakistan Total damage (millions USD) 10000 9000 17 9598 Disaster impact on sustainable economic growth 6 5 7000 Damage (% of GNI) Damages (millions USD) 8000 6000 5000 4 5230 2500 3000 1600 2 1947 2000 1000 2018 247 1000 662 2. 8 505 3. 3 0 5/18/1905 12: 00 AM 1 5/23/1905 12: 00 AM 5/28/1905 12: 00 AM 3 6/2/1905 12: 00 AM 2 6/7/1905 12: 00 AM 1 10 6/12/1905 12: 00 AM Year 92 258 113 30 6/17/1905 6/22/1905 12: 00 0 AM 200512: 00 AM 2006 2007 6/27/1905 12: 00 AM 2008 2009 7/2/1905 7/7/1905 12: 00 AM 2010 2011 AM 2012 12: 00 2013 2014 Resource: EM-DAT, available at http: //www. emdat. be/advanced_search/index. html 17

Case One: UNDP CBDRM initiative as an entry point of risk-informed development in Pakistan Implementation of CBDRM Fieldwork Soucrce: Park, Hyungguen. Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM): Towards Risk-informed Development, DRR in Pakistan Programme (DRRIP), CPRU, UNDP Pakistan, Islamabad. (2015), available at: https: //goo. gl/ym. ZMcv. 18

Case One: UNDP CBDRM initiative as an entry point of risk-informed development in Pakistan Key partners: 84 at-risk villages, nine (local) government agencies (NDMA, PDMAs and DDMOs), five implementing partners, UNDP Where? Total delivery ($722, 729) [범주 이름] [백분율] Project outputs in number §Training: 6 scenario-based mock drill practice at UC level; fortnightly meetings for conceptual and practical learning on DRM and CO operation; and 8 training events for emergency for response and rescue for 1238 male and 771 female beneficiaries §CO and VDMC: 158 COs & VDMCs formed with 1078 male and 611 female members mobilized 1) and 1057 VDMC members 2) §DRM plans: 30 village DRM plans in the first and second phase; and 3 UC level DRM plans in the third phase §Social production of risk knowledge: 30 case studies for individual and collective learning; CBDRM learning document I & II; and 3 District forums on DRR §In total 38 risk mitigation schemes: 29 schemes for flood protection; 7 schemes for drought resilience; 2 schemes for resilience of livelihood system; and 38 feasibility studies Soucrce: Park, Hyungguen. Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM): Towards Risk-informed Development, DRR in Pakistan Programme (DRRIP), CPRU, UNDP Pakistan, Islamabad. (2015), available at: https: //goo. gl/ym. ZMcv. 19

Case two: Dual risk of Korea facing complex risk stemming from the imbalance among differing values • Human Development Index ranked 12 th from a country called “a bottomless pit” (UNDP 2014 Human Development Index, USAID) • Dual-risk as the legacy of compressed development: “the reconstructed state of complex modernization in which spatiotemporally heterodox factors coexist due to the extremely compressed – both spatially and temporally – manner of modern transformation” (Change, 2009: 9, cited in Park, 2014) • A “rush to growth ideology” led by the Korean developmental state • Dually structured risk (Kim, 1998, cited in Park, 2014) as a result of the imbalance between different values • One factor from insufficient modernization – a delayed socio-political development • Another factor from successful industrialization and growth – manufactured risk Source: Park, Hyungguen. Politics of disaster in the post-developmental state: Seoul and Jeju, Korea. Diss. King's College London, 2014. 20

Case two-1: the sinking of the ferry Sewol 21 • 304 fatalities including 9 missing out of 476 passengers on board • Mostly secondary school students on school trip to Jeju islands • A legislative function immediately paralyzed; no parliamentary bills for other pending issues processed until 30 September 2014 after two previous agreements between the ruling and opposition parties already revoked • 154 imprisoned among 399 booked on fiver major criminal charges: sinking of the ferry, breech of rescue obligations, embezzlement and corruption of the ferry owner and the overall shipping industry and malfeasance of the maritime police • Many other changes in institutions – both formal and informal – have been witnessed that exemplifies the potential to trigger societal change Job security Labor flexibility Rights and responsibil ities Economic values • • • Job security Climate change Disaster risk Politics Climate Labor change Rights and responsibilities flexibility Disaster Economic risk Politics values One of the controversial issues was if two teachers with irregular, short-term contracts who died of the sinking of the Sewol should be equally compensated and their death should be seen equally as death in the line of duty as other teachers with regular contracts. Evidently, the disaster shook the discursive space in which different values and issues were addressed separately with the economic value prioritized over other values Further research is necessary on the change and implications of this disaster for ongoing efforts to redirect the development path of Korean society

Case two-2: Low Carbon and Green Growth Strategy The low carbon, green growth strategy of the Lee Myung-bak administration (2008 -2013) was initially one of such top-down narratives, stressing the need to strike a balance between different values and priorities Five year plan for green growth of Korea (2009 -2013) Strategies Policy directions Measures for climate change and securing energy independence Reduce carbon emissions 4. 4 Decrease energy dependence and enhance energy self-sufficiency 11. 6 Support adaptation to climate change impacts 28. 3 Develop green technologies as future growth engines 8. 8 Greening of industry 3. 6 Develop cutting edge industries 8. 5 Policy infrastructure for green growth 1. 4 Green city and green transport 19. 7 Green revolution in lifestyle 1. 5 Global cooperation on green growth 0. 5 Creations of new growth engines Improving quality of life and strengthening the status of the countries Other core values and agendas such as climate change and disaster risk were taken to reinforce the status quo (growth) and serve the interests of a few winners of the compressed development (big companies, certain ministries). • No participation of NGOs critical of then government in the implementation of the Low Carbon and Green Growth Strategy • No substantial change in research paradigms • The hegemonic power that resists the call for fundamental change in the priority of values and power relations has remained undiminished, focusing on a few old material values. However, • This also led to the formation of a new governance space in which alternative ideas with different world views compete with the mainstream in terms of climate change discourse. • Amount of investment (in billion USD) Total: 83. 6 Environmentalists occupying I-PO bridge for 42 days as part of their campaign against the four river restoration project Source: adopted from UNEP (2010: 17) Note: In this plan, the Four River Restoration Project (17. 3 billion US$) comes under the climate change category above. Actual discursive change: reinforced orthodox values Economic growth, technology, climate change mitigation Source: adopted from Park (2014) 22

23 Local interpretation and application of the Sendai Framework for DRR in Korea: Pre-disaster and preintervention discursive space Newly formed discursive space ?

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