Global Migration Trends Frank Laczko Global Migration Data

Global Migration Trends Frank Laczko Global Migration Data Analysis Centre, Berlin International Organization for Migration Lecture Series Development Policy XVII Technische Universität Berlin, 15. 12. 2015

Overview 1. Main recent global migration trends 2. Global migration trends: Regional spotlights 3. Changing government approach to migration 4. Labour migration: labour and skill shortages globally 5. Better data needed

1. Main recent global migration trends

Stocks and trends • 1 in 7 (3. 2%) people today are migrants - 232 million are international migrants and 740 million are internal migrants. • Roughly 50% of international migrants reside in ten highly urbanized, highincome countries. • Women account for 48% of the global migrant stock. • Migrants in the North are older than migrants in the South (42 years as median age in the North, 33 in the South). • Most international migrants are working age.

Four worlds of migration South-South migration as large as South. North Migration

Forced migration • The number of people displaced by violence and conflict today is the highest since World War II. • 54. 9 million persons of concern globally as of end of 2014. • 38. 2 million ppl internally displaced due to conflict and violence. • Most displaced people remain in their origin countries/neighbouring regions • 86% of the 19. 5 million refugees hosted by developing regions in 2014 • Syrians – now the largest displaced population globally: 3. 9 m refugees, 7. 6 m IDPs. In 2013 Palestinians were the largest refugee group worldwide.

Forced migration • 19. 5 million refugees worldwide, up from 16. 7 million at end of 2013, and 15. 2 million in 2011. • 1. 8 million asylum-seekers, up from nearly 1. 1 million in 2013. • The great majority of displaced people have been uprooted by weather-related disasters, 19. 3 million in 2014. • Rising numbers of migrants are moving into urban areas which are vulnerable to climate change - an estimated 120, 000 people per day are migrating to cities in the Asia Pacific region.

Irregular migration • Difficulties remain to establish the extent of irregular migration • At least 50 million irregular migrants in the world – over one fifth of all international migrants. • An estimated 3 million people illegally enter the US each year, mostly smuggled across the border. • There were 11. 3 million unauthorized immigrants in the U. S. in 2014 according to Pew – less than the 12. 2 million peak in 2007. • The population has remained essentially stable for five years, comprising 3. 5% of the nation’s population and 5. 1% of US labour force.

Irregular migration 600, 000 Detections of “illegal border crossings” at the European Union’s external borders at record levels every year since 2012, according to Frontex data. 522, 188 500, 000 400, 000 300, 000 280, 000 200, 000 140, 000 100, 000 0 75, 000 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Jan--Sep)

Human Trafficking and Forced Labour • According to the U. S. State Department’s Trafficking in Persons report, the number of identified victims of trafficking at the global level was roughly 44, 500 in 2013 and 2014. • The number of identified victims has increased in all regions, and convictions represent only a small proportion of identified case. • However, convictions nearly doubled between 2013 and 2014, from 5, 776 to 11, 438.

Human Trafficking and Forced Labour Identified victims of human trafficking and convictions by region, 2008 and 2014

Human Trafficking and Forced Labour • Almost 21 million people are victims of forced labour – 11. 4 million women and girls and 9. 5 million men and boys. This is nearly twice the 2004 estimate of 12. 3 million people (ILO). • The percentage of detected child victims has increased from 20% in 2003 -2006 to 27% in 2007 -2010 • The actual number of trafficked victims remains unknown. • Of those exploited by individuals or enterprises, 4. 5 million are victims of forced sexual exploitation. • Forced labour in the private economy generates $150 billion in illegal profits per year.

Migrant deaths • IOM’s Missing Migrants Project estimates that between January and early December 2015 nearly 5, 100 migrants died or went missing attempting to reach destinations around the world. • This represents an increase in the estimated number of deaths, from 2, 400 recorded in the whole of 2013 and 4, 900 in 2014. • Of the total recorded fatalities, almost 3, 700 occurred in the Mediterranean, making this the deadliest route worldwide (72% of the total). • An estimated 15% of deaths globally this year occurred in South East Asia, over 4% in the along the U. S. -Mexico border, and nearly 3% in Europe. • Almost 86% of deaths so far in 2015 occurred along sea routes.

Migrant deaths

Migrant deaths • The majority of migrants who lost their lives are of unknown origin, followed by those from Africa, MENA and SE Asia. • It is likely that existing figures greatly underestimate the true number of dead and missing. <[PERCENTAGE] Unknown/Not specified (1, 392) 6% 9% 27% Sub-Saharan Africa (1, 304) Southeast Asia (736) Middle East and North Africa* (873) 17% Horn of Africa (463) 14% 26% Latin America and Caribbean (302) East Asia (15)

Remittances • There has been an exponential growth in remittances over the last decade. • However, recent research suggests that much of the recorded increase in remittances to developing countries is due to better reporting systems and changes in the ways remittances have been measured over time, and might therefore not be as high as often claimed • Transfer costs remain high – a global average of 8% when sending $200. • World Bank projects limited growth in the short-term due to the weak economic situation in Europe, deterioration of the Russian economy and the depreciation of the euro and ruble.

Remittances • Officially recorded remittances to the developing world are expected to reach $440 billion in 2015, an increase of 0. 9 percent over the previous year. These remittances are expected to make up 75% of global remittances in 2015, a slight increase in share. • Global remittances, including those to high income countries, are projected to grow by 0. 4 percent to $586 billion. • The use of mobile technology in cross-border transactions remains limited despite its potential to lower costs – accounting for less than 2 percent of remittance flows in 2013.

2. Global migration trends: Regional spotlights

Regional Spotlights: Europe Overview • • 985, 000+ migrants and refugees to Europe so far this year Main countries of arrival by sea: Greece (~772, 000) and Italy (~148, 000) Large increase along Eastern Mediterranean and Western Balkan routes in 2015 Main countries of origin (Jan-Oct 2015) • Syria: almost 400, 000 • Afghanistan: >140, 000 • Eritrea: about 40, 000 • Iraq: about 45, 000 • Fatalities: at least 3, 600 dead and missing migrants in the Mediterranean (higher than the 2014 total of 3, 279)

Regional Spotlights: Europe Overview Arrivals by sea and deaths in the Mediterranean 1 January – 10 December, 2015 Country of Arrivals Italy 148, 419 (IOM est. ) Malta 106 Greece 771, 508 Cyprus 269 Spain 3, 845 Estimated Total 912, 147 Deaths 2, 889 (Central Med route) 627 (Eastern Med route) 85 (Western Med and Western African routes) 3, 601 Source: IOM and respective Gov‘ts. All numbers are minimum estimates. Spain data is until 15 Oct. 2015; Malta until 27 Oct.

Regional Spotlights: Child migrants in Europe • So far this year, more than one in five refugees and migrants who arrived in Europe was a child. • Children represent more than 30% of the recorded deaths in the Aegean Sea this year. • The number of children arriving is growing: • In June one in ten refugees and migrants registered at the border between Greece and FYROM was a child. • As of October, this figure increased to one in three.

3. Changing government approach to migration

National immigration policies • Globally, national immigration policies are not negative on the whole. • In 2011, among 195 countries with available data, 73% of governments either had policies to maintain the current level of immigration or were not intervening to change it, while 16% had policies to lower it and 11% had policies to raise it. • An increasing number of countries have adopted policies to promote the integration of non-nationals. • Out of 144 countries with available data on diaspora units in 2011, 114 had special government units to deal with matters of interest to emigrants and their families abroad.

National immigration policies • More and more governments have been increasingly open to regular migration in the last 2 decades. • In developed regions, the trend toward greater openness to immigration is particularly pronounced. Only 10% of countries in 2011 implemented policies to lower immigration, down from 60% in 1996. • In developing regions, the percentage of governments with policies to lower the level of immigration declined to 18% in 2011 from 34% in 1996. • Countries are increasingly selective towards migrant workers: 39% of governments globally had policies to encourage immigration of highly-skilled workers in 2011, up from 22% in 2005.

Public opinon • IOM’s GMDAC and Gallup released a report “How the World Views Migration” in October 2015. • Featured interviews with 183, 000 people across 140 countries, 2012— 2014 • Major findings: • In all major world regions, except for Europe, people are more likely to want immigration levels to stay the same or increase • The majority of European residents believes immigration levels should decrease • Northern European residents mainly want immigration levels to stay the same or increase • Southern European residents prefer lower levels of immigration to their countries

National immigration policies and Public Opinion

Public opinon According to the Parlimeter • The majority of Europeans support a global approach to migration policy • Nearly 8 out of 10 respondents think that asylum-seekers should be better distributed among all EU Member States • At EU level there is an absolute majority in agreement with the statement “[EU countries] need legal migrants to work in certain economic sectors”

4. Labor migration: Labour and skill shortages globally

Labour migration • Approximately 105 million people are international labour migrants – almost 50% of the global migrant stock. • Most international migration today is related to seeking employment. More than 90% of all international migrants are workers and their families. • Immigrants from developing economies contributed an estimated 40% of labour force growth in advanced economies between 1980 and 2010. • Currently, the world´s largest corridor of international migration is between the United States and Mexico. • Migrant workers who borrow money from third parties face an increased risk of being in forced labour.

Labour migration • The gap between demand supply of high-skill workers is estimated to be equivalent to 16 -18 million workers in advanced economies, 23 million in China. • Germany needs an average of 500, 000 immigrants per year to “close the looming workforce gap. ” • According to research from the Boston Consulting Group: • Australia could have a shortfall of 2. 3 million workers by 2030. • Brazil will have a shortage of up to 8. 5 million workers by 2020. • Germany could experience a labour shortage of up to 2. 4 million workers by 2020. • The U. S. is expected to have a surplus of between 17. 1 million and 22 million people in 2020.

Labour migration • The Talent Shortage Survey 2015 carried out by the Manpower Group (obtained from a survey of 37, 000 employers in 42 countries and territories) revealed that: • 38% of employers globally report difficulty in filling jobs, the highest proportion since 2007 and a 2% increase compared to 2014. • Japan, Peru and Hong Kong experienced the most difficulty (83%, 68% and 65%, respectively). • Ireland, UK and Spain experienced the least difficulty (11%, 14% and 14%) • The top reason for difficulty filling jobs is lack of available applicants. • The hardest job to fill is skilled trade workers, such as chefs, bakers, butchers, mechanics and electricians).

4. Better data needed

Better data needed • There is a need for a concerted effort to collect more and better quality migration data. • This should be done in a systematic and consistent way. • We should also make better use of existing data in both crisis and non-crisis settings.

Better data needed This will help us to: • better assist migrants • improve our understanding of the impacts of migration on national development, as well as on migrants themselves • help countries design and implement evidence-based migration and development policies

IOM Response Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC) 3 Key Goals 1. Provide authoritative, timely and evidence-based analysis on global migration issues. 2. Promote a better understanding and use of migration data, including IOM data. 3. Enhance IOM‘s efforts to build the data capacities of Member States and Observers.

Global Migration Data Analysis Centre - GMDAC Focus on: • Data Analysis of Global Migration Trends e. g. Global Migration Data Hub (EIU), Data Briefings, Global Migration Trends reports • In-depth Studies e. g. Human smuggling, Missing Migrants, Migration and Adaptation to Climate Change • IOM Data e. g. Statistical overview of IOM activities, inter-departmental data working group • Data Capacity-Building e. g. GMG Migration and Development Data Handbook, Migration Profiles, data guidelines • Policy Engagement e. g. Representing IOM in the IAEG on SDG indicators, Data Advisory Board, GMG.

Relevant GMDAC Activities Among others: • Missing Migrants and Deaths at the EU’s Mediterranean Border: Humanitarian Needs and State Obligations • Research on Drivers of Asylum-Related Migration • Data and Research on Human Smuggling: a Global Report • “Europe’s Migration Crisis – Making Sense of the Numbers” • Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy (MECLEP)

Contact Frank Laczko Global Migration Data Analysis Centre International Organization for Migration Taubenstrasse 20 -22, D- 10117 Berlin, Germany Tel. : +49 30 278 778 22 | Fax: +49 30 278 778 99 www. gmdac. iom. int | gmdac@iom. int | @IOM_GMDAC