Global Energy Politics Petroleum Peak Oil Unconventional Hydrocarbons

Global Energy Politics Petroleum “Peak Oil” Unconventional Hydrocarbons Renewables Pandemic Impact 1

Why is energy “the master resource? ”

World energy markets • 80% fossil fuels • Oil: Lifeblood of global economy, #1 export • GDP growth directly correlates to oil use • 100 MBD in 2019 • 90% of reserves in 14 countries – 2/3 reserves in Persian Gulf 3

Patterns of consumption • U. S. led petroleum economy (1859) – 5% population, uses 25% world’s oil • “The American way of life” • Per capita oil use – 5 x world per capita consumption – 80 x sub-Saharan Africa • Efficiency – Japan & W. Europe use ½ as much/unit of GDP 4

Oil and War • Post WWI: Mideast oil rights to “ 7 sisters” • WW 2 • Cold War: U. S. "surrogate policy” • Militarized Middle East – Islamic extremism & U. S. military presence • U. S. wars since 2001: $1. 6 quadrillion – http: //costofwar. com/en/ 5

Oil & Democracy • Oil concentrates wealth & power – Middle East, Nigeria, Colombia • Vastly different envtl standards in N & S – Indigenous peoples & ethnic minorities 6

Intentional and Unintentional Oil Pollution POLS 384 Lec. 13 7

What Thomas Malthus did not foresee! 8

The Food/Oil Connection And that’s just one example! 9

A key concept: EROEI A metric for comparing different fuel sources Energy output ÷ energy input

Energy Return on Investment (EROI) • Petroleum – 1900 ~ 100: 1 – 2010 ~ 20: 1 • Coal – 1930 ~ 80: 1 – 2010 ~ 20: 1 • “Clean coal” ~ 5: 1 • Hydroelectric – Can be as high as 250: 1 • Solar – 15: 1 – varies enormously • Embodied energy 11

“Peak Oil” • Hubbert’s Peak: production peaks when half the oil is extracted – Accurately predicted U. S. peak (1970) in 1956 – Depends upon estimate of reserves • Colin Campbell, Shell – Production has outrun discovery for 30 years – 1. 8 trillion barrels reserves > 2005 -07 peak • USGS (2008): 3 trillion barrels > 2030 12

Rising Cost of Oil? • $10/barrel (1998); $150 (2006); $40 today! • IEA Peak Oil Predictions – 2008: 2030 – 2009: 2020 – 2010: 2007 • BUT… 13

“Unconventional Hydrocarbons” • Shale oil (EROI 3 -5: 1) – ~3 trillion barrels global reserves • Oil sands (EROI 2 -3: 1) – Heavy crude; Canada & Venezuela – ~1. 2 trillion barrels (est. ) • Hydraulic fracturing (5 -10: 1) • IEA: US energy independence by 2025 – 2018: #1 oil producer 14

What about renewables? 15

China’s incredibly ambitious decarbonization plan Source: https: //grist. org/climate/can-china-go-net-zero-two-charts-show-just-how-ambitious-xi-jinpings-goal-is/ 16

China goes big! Source: https: //grist. org/climate/can-china-go-net-zero-two-charts-show-just-how-ambitious-xi-jinpings-goal-is/ 17

Exponential growth ~ a positive spin POLS 384 Lec. 13 18

Russia-Saudi Oil Price War Source: https: //oilprice. com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-Saudi-Arabia-To-Blame-For-The-Looming-Economic-Recession. html 19

2020: a most unusual year! Source: https: //www. sciencenews. org/article/covid-19 -coronavirus-greenhouse-gas-emissions-climate-change 20

What are the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic for world energy use? Think systemically! 21