Global Cryosphere Watch Towards an endtoend information system

Global Cryosphere Watch: Towards an end-to-end information system on the state of the cryosphere Arctic Science Networking Workshop Helsinki, Finland Aug 30 -Sept 1, 2017 Arni Snorrason Chair, GCW Steering Group PR of Iceland with WMO Director General, Icelandic Meteorological Office

Overview • • GCW: mandate, timelines, structure, and engagements; Progress to date: key results. Next Steps. Engagements with PRCC. Recalling… ARCTIC COUNCIL FAIRBANKS DECLARATION 2017 (11 May 2017): On addressing the impacts of climate change, the Council recognize: • the need to increase cooperation in meteorological, oceanographic and terrestrial observations, research and services, and • the need for well-maintained and sustained observation networks and continuous monitoring in the Arctic, such as the World Meteorological Organization's Global Cryosphere Watch Program.

AMAP Report on Snow, Water, Ice, Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA), 2017, identified GCW relevant priority areas: • Overarching needs – Improving prediction for the timing of future Arctic changes; – better understanding of feedbacks in the Arctic cryosphere; – Improving confidence in predictions of interactions between the Arctic and global systems. • • Need increased coverage of observations in space and time. Data gaps and research needs: – – – – – Detailed data on permafrost, in particular the high arctic regions; Understand linkages of permafrost changes with local topography and hydrology; Understanding of storage and drainage of glacial meltwater; Storage and export of continental freshwater and resulting effects on marine processes; The role of snow in the evolution of sea ice; Interaction between snow and vegetation; Connections between Arctic changes and weather at lower latitudes; Identify specific regions most vulnerable to ecosystem shifts ; Increased resolution and applicability of remotely sensed data. Reduce uncertainty of • • • projections of the sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet, to climate change. Impact of fresh water inflows on ocean processes Natural climate variability

Global Cryosphere Watch GCW is a mechanism developed by WMO to facilitate the provision of authoritative, clear, and useable data, information, and analyses on the past, current and future state of the cryosphere (snow, glaciers, sea ice, ice sheets, permafrost, seasonally frozen ground, river ice, lake ice, icebergs) • GCW Observations, Products, and Data Exchange are relevant inputs to the Polar Regional Climate Centres (PRCC), and similar applications When fully operational, GCW will provide: • Observations – • • • A sustained global surface network; Best Practices Guides; Observing Requirements; Component of WIGOS. Products – • Jointly with the Polar Space Task Group (PSTG), organizes satellite products intercomparisons & contribute to WMO’s space-based capabilities database; • Historical data rescue (e. g. , snow depth); • Develops trackers and multi-dataset products; • Rolling Review of Requirements. • Data access and exchange through GCW Data Portal • Recommend data exchange standards; • Information and services – • Assessments on the state of the cryosphere; • Integrated glossary of cryosphere terms; • Outreach, training materials, website: http: //globalcryospherewatch. org/

GCW Development Timeline 1 st GCW Implementation Workshop WMO 15 th Congress welcomes proposal for GCW WMO 16 th Congress approves GCW development Cg-17 approved GCW Implementati on Plan 2 nd Snow Watch workshop 2 nd Cryo. Net 1 st Cryo. Net EC-69: approved GCW network with 120 stations 2008 IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report published GCW Operational (2020) ……. GCW Pre-operational (2016 -2019) … 2007 2 nd Data Portal 1 st GCW-PRCC planning workshop (Montreal, Sept 2017) 2011 2013 2014 1 st Asia Cryo. Net 2015 2016 1 st South America Cryo. Net Workshops: 2 nd Asia Cryo. Net, 5 th Cryo. Net, 1 st Best Practices, 1 st Data Portal, 2 nd Snow Watch 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cg-18 1 st Tropical (2019) Cryosphere Workshop (Tanzania); UNESCO 5 th session GCW South Steering Group America (Jan 2018, Oslo)

GCW: platform for broad engagement on cryosphere observations and research (Steering Group and Expert Working Groups) Red outline: NMHSs Blue outline: other organizations Grey background: desired future collaborations Environment and Climate Change Canada Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (Russ Fed) WMO PSTG (space agencies) FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE Chinese Academy of Science

GCW Structure Portal Website and Outreach Terminology Information and Services Working Group South America Regional Group Asia Regional Group Tropical Cryosphere Regional Group Steering Group Observations Working Group Cryo. Net Best Practices Integrated Products Working Group Sea Ice Products Snow Watch

Implementation of GCW: progress as of 2017 • • • Surface Observing Network: 120 stations approved (EC-69) Minimum Observing Requirements, defined, including observed variables; Best Practices: guides for snow, glaciers, sea ice, distributed for review (2018); Data Portal: interoperability with data centres; International data exchange regulations: snow depth (EC-69); Snow Trackers: snow extent, SWE, etc. Integrated glossary of cryosphere terms; Website; Partnerships: fostering collaboration between research and operational programmes in the delivery of its mandate.

The GCW Surface Network (all stations) 2017 All Cryo. Net and contributing stations: 120 approved and 50 candidate; New submissions are encouraged in particular in gap areas. Priority Gap Areas

Organizations Engaged in the GCW Surface Network NMHSs • • • • Argentine National Meteorological Service Australian Bureau of Meteorology ZAMG (Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria) Federal Hydrometeorological Institute Bosnia-Hertzegovina Environment and Climate Change Canada Base de datos del Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (INAMHI-Ecuador Finnish Meterological Institute (FMI) Météo-France – CNRS Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) Department of Hydrometeorology Nepal in collaboration with National Academy of science and Technology Pakistan Meteorological Department AEMET (Spain) NOAA Universities, Research, and Other Organizations • • • • Arctic Institute of North America Universidad de Chile Chinese Academy of Sciences Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Université Grenoble Alpes - Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement Università degli Studi di Milano, Italy ENEA – CNR: National Research Council of Italy Okayama University, Japan National Institute for Polar Research, Japan WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF Davos, Switzerland Appalachian State University, USA Argentine Navy Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales Geocryology, Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales Huilo Foundation

GCW Observations § (standardized) best practices for cryospheric observations building on existing practices. § snow, glacier and sea ice, for review in 2018. Developed a minimum observing program for each cryosphere component (recommended and desired cryosphere variables and required, meteorological variables): http: //globalcryospherewatch. org/cryonet/varia bles/recommended_variables. html GLACIERS and ICE CAPS Variable § GCW observing system is a component of the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS), and benefits from the regulatory framework of WMO. Recommended minimum frequency of observations at Cryo. Net stations hourly daily Surface accumulation (point) A Surface ablation (point) A weekly Timescale biseasona multiweekly monthly l yearly year M M Surface mass balance (glacier wide) Surface mass balance (point) M A M Glacier area (glacier wide) M Surface accumulation (glacier wide) M Surface ablation (glacier wide) M Basal Ablation (point) A M Surface mass balance (glacier wide) M Glacier thickness (point) M Glacier volume (glacier wide) M Glacial runoff A Calving flux (point) A/M Ice velocity (point) Ice/firn temperature profile (point) A A Blue shading/fill indicates recommended measurements for Cryo. Net stations Green shading/fill indicates desired measurements for Cryo. Net stations A: automatic, M: manual M

• • • GCW Data Portal Interoperable with data centers and users (see diagram) It facilitates the discoverability of cryosphere data using standardized metadata vocabularies: Cryosphere variables metadata vocabularies: under development, and included in OSCAR. Data exchange in research vs operational programs: GCW Data portal to develop tailored solutions (e. g. BUFR vs Net. CDF) A demonstration project under way on data exchange. Hosted by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute gcw. met. no http: //globalcryospherewatch. org/data. html Engagements: - Arctic Data Committee (ADC) of SAON - Scientific Committee for Antarctic Data Management (SCADM) of SCAR

Integrated Products: Snow Watch • • Remote sensing of snow and its linkages with the in-situ measurement. Exchange of snow depths data, and report zero snow depth by all countries experiencing snow. Developed trackers based on the multi-dataset analysis: snow cover , SWE Products relevant to the Polar RCCs Snow. PEx Recommended by Snow Watch: ESA initiated (and funded) a Satellite Snow Products intercomparison and evaluation Exercise – ESA Snow. PEx (06/2014 -> 12/2016) → → ESA publications on: • protocols and procedures for satellite snow product validation • best practices for quality assessment and uncertainty estimates • Intercomparison of datasets • trend analysis of snow extent and snow mass. ~1200 Gt The Polar Space Task Group (PSTG) and GCW to explore additional intercomparisons (e. g. sea ice) Models vs. satellite-based products: http: //snowpex. enveo. at/datasets. html

Snow depth observations GTS Snow depth availability SYNOP TAC + SYNOP BUFR + national BUFR data Status on 5 February 2017 - Gaps in USA, China and southern hemisphere - NRT data exist and is available (more than 20000 station in the USA), but it is not on the GTS for NWP applications. - However, we note an improvement in China (since status in de Rosnay et al, ECMWF NL article 143, 2015)

2016 -17 NH SWE anomaly from FMI Tracker 2016 -17 NH SWE anomaly from Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Tracker • Snow. Watch objective is to develop a single multi-dataset SWE/snow cover tracker for GCW • The current GCW website has NRT tracking of NH SWE from the FMI Glob. Snow product and the CMC operational daily snow depth analysis • Both the CMC and FMI Snow Trackers showed above-average snow accumulation over NH land area during winter 2016 -2017 • Glob. Snow showed March 2017 as the 3 rd highest value since 1979 (higher values in 1997 and 1999) • CMC showed March 2017 as the largest accumulation since the analysis was initiated in 1998, but there have been a number of changes to the operational analysis that contribute to increasing SWE over time

February 2017 mean snow depth or SWE anomalies (% wrt 1999 -2016 ref period) for three products CMC snow depth Conclusions: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. GLB NRT SWE MERRA-2 SWE All three products have similar patterns but CMC shows a greater prevalence of positive anomalies The relatively short reference period used with CMC is NOT a factor in explaining its divergence from the other products; CMC analysis is affected by changes in implementation and driving data over time Glob. Snow does not sample snow in mountainous regions which can contribute to differences from CMC Ground reports from Cdn High Arctic confirm record snow accumulations during winter 2016 -17 which is captured by CMC The GCW trackers need to be replaced by a multi-dataset product to provide more guidance on the observational uncertainty

Work in progress to develop NRT multi-dataset SE and SWE tracking for Arctic PRCC • • • Incorporate recommendations and results from Snow. PEx Multi-dataset approach required to increase confidence Issue: multi-data SWE monitoring requires major trade-off in latency due to availability of reanalysis-driven snow products (~1 -2 month latency Multi-dataset June SCE (n=5) and September SIE (n=3) anomaly time series, 1981 -2010

Other GCW Climate monitoring and assessment products

GCW Glossary • • • At present, there are 4141 entries from 26 sources; over 2200 are unique. http: //globalcryospherewatc h. org/reference/glossary. php ; still, under development. GCW has compiled a database of cryosphere terms from a variety of sources (see the References) It will be formally vetted, streamlined, and then translated over the coming years. The GCW glossary terms will ultimately be included in WMO's METEOTERM. Reliable and quick reference for a wide range of users.

Information Website http: //globalcryospherewatch. org/assessments/seaice/ Figure 1: Time series of thaw depths measured in Alaska’s North Slope and Brooks Range regions. All sites are located in the continuous permafrost zone. Data are from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) website. globalcryospherewatch. org

Next Steps • • Link closer with hydrology: Arctic HYCOS; Develop a GCW Integrated Products Strategy, reflecting needs/application areas, e. g. PRCC, satellite product validation; – Linkages with Arctic RCC, Asia High Mountain RCC, Antarctic RCC. Address observational gaps: by region (e. g. tropical), by component (e. g. permafrost); Contribute to the WMO high mountain strategy; Advance GCW Data Portal: metadata vocabularies, data exchange, interoperability. Publish Best Practices Guides (measurements, data exchange, products). Develop multi-dataset trackers that provide more guidance on the observational uncertainty in SWE/snow cover Active outreach and regional engagements. GCW-PRCC working meeting: Sept 13, 2018, Montreal: planning input and support from GCW for the PRCC products Hofsjökull Integrated Cryo. Net Site SWE sampling in a snow pit with a wedge sampler and balance.

High Mountain focus for the WMO Strategic Plan 2020 -2023 • EC-69 (2017) defined the High Mountain scope of WMO: “mountain areas where seasonal or perennial cryosphere is present and poses potential and serious risks to society, related to water security and disaster resilience” • • Plan of action focusing on High Mountain Regions, for consideration at Cg-19; Planned: WMO Global High Mountain Summit, in late 2018 (location TBD), theme – Atmosphere – Ice – Water– Ecosystem - Human Interaction in high mountain regions: from observations and research to services, policy and society. • Promote high mountain issues at different scales and for different applications, by: – advancing observations, research and service priorities; – building partnerships research and operational services, international organizations, including for funding. – developing new science to understand accelerated changes and teleconnections (e. g. Third Pole – the Andes) – Developing a framework to promote to governments addressing emerging needs in high mountain regions, • Observations • Space programs • Water resource management – Propose pilot projects in selected areas; § Concept, time, location, organizational aspects, available: end 2017.

GCW is a key mechanism of WMO for addressing emerging needs in polar regions, e. g. observations gaps, data and information exchange, engagements and outreach.

Thank you Merci