Global Climate Policy Scenarios Limiting Global Climate Change
Global Climate Policy Scenarios Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius: the way ahead for 2020 and beyond Purpose The European Union is committed to limiting the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius. In 2007, the European Commission published a Communication on 'Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius: the way ahead for 2020 and beyond', which explores ways for meeting this target. The Communication drew on scenarios developed by the Joint Research Centre IPTS. Project overview The 'GHG reduction scenario' takes a novel and realistic approach by simulating an imperfect carbon market across sectors and regions. Reaching the 2 degree target pathway is feasible under these assumptions. Two main scenarios were modelled: • a baseline scenario following a 'business-as-usual' trend and • a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction scenario that includes energy efficiency and dedicated climate change policies aiming at global emission reductions of 25% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels Some conclusions • Broad participation of countries in the GHG emission reduction efforts is indispensable for realising a 2 Cº target pathway. • Such a GHG reduction scenario leads to carbon prices in the range of 30 - 40 €/t. CO 2 -equivalent in developed countries by 2020. By 2030, all global industrial sectors would face the same carbon price of around 65 €/t. CO 2 equivalent. • Energy savings throughout all sectors are one of the key elements in the reduction scenario. • The GHG reduction scenario results show that there is a feasible pathway for limiting the global temperature increase to 2 ºC. • The use of 'flexible mechanisms' is central for limiting the cost of an ambitious climate change policy. Policy impacts The results of this research have been used/presented in: • The Staff Working Paper accompanying the EC Communication on "Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond" http: //ec. europa. eu/environment/climat/future_action. htm © European Communities, 2007 • DG ENV’s website summarising the techno-economic studies related to the EC climate policy: http: //ec. europa. eu/environment/climat/studies. htm Contact: Dr. Peter Russ European Commission • Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Tel. +34 95 448 83 09 • Fax +34 95 448 82 79 E-mail: peter. russ@ec. europa. eu
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