Global Change Research in Belgium 1990 2002 Guy

Global Change Research in Belgium 1990 -2002 Guy P. Brasseur Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Chair, International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Hamburg, Germany

An enigma from the ice… The only place this much carbon can “hide” during the ice ages is in the ocean strong coupling between climate and marine carbon cycle Methane comes mostly from wetlands strong coupling between climate and terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle Antarctic record of temperature, CO 2 and CH 4

… pointing into an uncertain future… History shows that physical climate, ocean dynamics, and terrestrial ecosystems are a strongly linked system. ? In the last 150 years, we have introduced massive perturbations in some of the forcing variables --How will the system respond? ? ?

The Earth System

The Earth: A Complex Dynamical System • In nonlinear complex systems, minute actions can cause long term, large scale changes. These changes can be abrupt, devastating, surprising, unmanageable.

The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme IGBP provides scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living Earth. Specifically IGBP studies the interactions between biological, physical, and chemical processes, and human systems. It collaborates with other programmes to provide the knowledge necessary to respond to environmental change.

IGBP Projects • Atmosphere: IGAC • Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC • Land: GLP • Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS • Land-Atmosphere: i. LEAPS • Land-Ocean: LOICZ • Integration: PAGES and AIMES GLP

Health www. ess-p. org

Challenges for the Future Based on P. Cox, 2004 CLIMATE Direct and Indirect Effects / Feedbacks on natural sources Human Emissions Greenhouse Effect Heat island effect AEROSOLS Oxidants: OH, H 2 O 2 HO 2, O 3 (Gas-phase) GREENHOUSE GASES Fires: soot Mineral dust CH 4, O 3, N 2 O, CFC CO 2 Human Emissions N deposition 03, UV radiation ECOSYSTEMS CHEMISTRY Biogenic Emissions: CH 4, DMS, VOC’s Dry deposition: stomatal conductance Human Emissions LAND WATER / CITIES Damming / Irrigation / Emission of heat Land-use Change, Fires The future: a full treatment of climate-chemistry-ecosystem-land surface feedbacks

Carbon and Climate

1860 - 2100 CO 2 emissions 2300 Gt. C ECHAM 5 T 63 L 31 CO 2 transport 610 Gt. C MPI-OM THC upwelling HAMOCC export production C transport 40. 000 Gt. C JSBACH interface carbon pools soil, hydrological and energy balance albedo phenology photosynthesis stomatal conductance

CO 2 acts on radiation, stomata and photosynthesis (with climate feedback) 80 ppm CO 2 ppm Atmospheric CO 2 concentration (global and annual mean) CO 2 acts on stomata and photosynthesis, but not on radiation (no climate feedback) year

Difference in carbon uptake between experiments (with minus without carbon cycle - climate feedback) [kg. C / m 2] 2100 positive feedback negative feedback

Atmospheric CO 2 Difference Atmospheric CO 2 Feedback C 4 MIP (IGBP/AIMES)

Air Quality and Climate Change

(K) Climate Response to Potential Improvement in Air Quality • • In blue: GHG unchanged after year 2000 (commitment experiment). In Red: GHG unchanged anthropogenic sulfate aerosols removed after year 2000 (sensitivity experiment). (%)

Response in Temperature and Precipitation (30 year average) • • • Temperature increase larger than 1 K over the continents, larger than 4 K in the Arctic. Temperature and precipitation changes bear some resemblance with greenhouse warming experiments A significant increase in precipitation is found in Eastern Pacific, suggesting an El-Nino like change in the mean climate state.

Global Change and the Social System

Including Social feedbacks Human perturbation Earth System Model Human impact

Including Social feedbacks Human perturbation Earth System Model Land use Water use Energy production and consumption Population growth Economic growth Structure of the economy Human health Human impact

Challenges for the Future • Earth system science should contribute to themes that will drive fundamental research in the 21 st century: • Interfaces between the micro- and the macro-worlds • Interfaces between the living and the dead nature • Interfaces between nature and culture

Thank You

Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring, Assimilation and Prediction Systems Atmosphere Models Water Cycle Climate / Weather Models Hydrolog y Process Models Ocean Models Carbon Cycle and Biogeochemistry The Earth System Unifying the Models Land Surface Models The Predictive Earth System Natural Hazard Prediction Terrestrial Biosphere Models th ar E d M els d o li So Megaflops Gigaflops Teraflops 2000 Petaflops 2010